UFC · resolved market
UFC Fight Night: Will Imavov win by decision?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd72c04fbfdbafe9a396e9bfa3e6739338814334894d01786acf06b8d7617ddfd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- UFCevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,748
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,113
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,748 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in UFC is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in UFC | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcb14…5358backed Yes | 47c | 655$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.25 | 339 | 48.1%163 W · 176 L | -16.2wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked No | 73c | 528.62$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$385.76 | 238 | 50.4%120 W · 118 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22c9…a485backed Yes | 27c | 369.27$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.73per pick | 27cpaid | +265.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 74c | 299.98$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.99 | 221 | 44.3%98 W · 123 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe90…e89cbacked Yes | 20c | 222.33$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.33 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.36per pick | 31cpaid | +149.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 399 | 59.6%238 W · 161 L | +6.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d33…91adbacked No | 80c | 90$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.80per pick | 80cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0af7…c796backed Yes | 25c | 80$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.75per pick | 25cpaid | +300%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xade5…0299backed Yes | 78c | 63.63$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.13 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 75c | 63.33$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.5 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa9…2491backed No | 73c | 55.56$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.56 | 85 | 44.7%38 W · 47 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2878…dd87backed Yes | 27c | 55.56$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.56 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 60 | 46.7%28 W · 32 L | -3.0wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e94…db47backed Yes | 25c | 44$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 113 | 64.6%73 W · 40 L | +6.3wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +17.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9264…bca3backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.29per pick | 42cpaid | +80.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6e…99eabacked No | 79c | 23.33$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.43 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -55%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cfc…2111backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in UFC and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- UFC Fight Night: Will Imavov win by decision?this page
- UFC Fight Night: Will Borralho win by KO/TKO/DQ?No won
- UFC Fight Night: Will Borralho win by decision?No won
- UFC Fight Night: Will Borralho win by submission?No won
- UFC Fight Night: Will Imavov vs. Borralho be decided any other way?No won
- UFC Fight Night: Will Imavov vs. Borralho end in a draw?No won
- UFC Fight Night: Will Imavov win by KO/TKO/DQ?No won
- UFC Fight Night: Will Imavov win by submission?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.