NHL · resolved market
Avalanche vs. Jets: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd73c71084cd23945388dedf3fc7bafe504ca029ce7be0e46aa30dc069ea32978
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,110
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,048
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,110 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 20 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9b7a…bc22backed Over | 50c | 3,001$1,501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500.62 | 358 | 29.3%105 W · 253 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 50c | 2,995$1,498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,497.62 | 1,441 | 49.2%709 W · 732 L | +6.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcf37…993fbacked Over | 32c | 940.68$302 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.58 | 133 | 36.1%48 W · 85 L | -5.8wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 51c | 540$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$264.6 | 1,202 | 60.1%722 W · 480 L | +51.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 48c | 280.37$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.56 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Under | 50c | 165.27$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.05 | 2,754 | 47.9%1,318 W · 1,436 L | +11.9wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 44c | 159.62$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.71 | 1,384 | 47.1%652 W · 732 L | +25.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 42c | 110.89$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.53 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec7…1e38backed Over | 49c | 105$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.45 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Over | 42c | 100.37$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.86 | 820 | 43%353 W · 467 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Over | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 629 | 51.2%322 W · 307 L | +18.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…110bbacked Over | 49c | 64$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.62 | 86 | 53.5%46 W · 40 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bf2…d280backed Over | 50c | 56$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 138 | 45.7%63 W · 75 L | -5.4wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…59d8backed Over | 80c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 54 | 72.2%39 W · 15 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 72cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9edc…b088backed Under | 20c | 50$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Over | 59c | 39.09$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 657 | 21.9%144 W · 513 L | -105.6wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc69a…e9f7backed Over | 50c | 35.18$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.59 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 53cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5b5…7e80backed Over | 58c | 28.21$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 1,107 | 52%576 W · 531 L | +63.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3492…969abacked Over | 45c | 23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 53cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Over | 54c | 21.32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.44 | 378 | 57.4%217 W · 161 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Avalanche vs. Jets: O/U 4.5this page
- Avalanche vs. JetsJets won
- Avalanche vs. Jets: O/U 5.5Under won
- Avalanche vs. Jets: O/U 6.5Under won
- Avalanche vs. Jets: O/U 7.5Under won
- Spread: Avalanche (-1.5)Jets won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.