NHL · resolved market
Spread: Avalanche (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8d63e8c96339b6c0948232586c4e87ecfc4812d6fda654eda5175aae36244fc2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Jetsof Avalanche, Jets
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,956
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,956 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9b7a…bc22backed Avalanche | 40c | 3,000$1,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,200 | 358 | 29.3%105 W · 253 L | -12.5wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebc0…fa41backed Jets | 60c | 2,850$1,710 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,140 | 170 | 57.6%98 W · 72 L | +15.0wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xeccd…d100backed Jets | 58c | 299.99$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 62 | 59.7%37 W · 25 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Avalanche | 40c | 270.83$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.33 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa975…9ae9backed Jets | 60c | 250$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72a1…1950backed Avalanche | 43c | 235.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 106 | 57.5%61 W · 45 L | +4.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0774…99febacked Avalanche | 42c | 220$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.4 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7a2b…c97cbacked Jets | 66c | 200$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 76 | 71.1%54 W · 22 L | +10.3wins | +0.14per pick | 57cpaid | +24.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5de7…5417backed Jets | 60c | 150$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 99 | 44.4%44 W · 55 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed Avalanche | 42c | 150$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 101 | 24.8%25 W · 76 L | -11.2wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Jets | 59c | 135.37$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.37 | 811 | 57.2%464 W · 347 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Avalanche | 41c | 121.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 786 | 51.8%407 W · 379 L | -16.6wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x011b…fcc3backed Jets | 60c | 116.67$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.67 | 177 | 59.9%106 W · 71 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2942…a018backed Jets | 60c | 113.33$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.33 | 215 | 60.9%131 W · 84 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e4f…6055backed Avalanche | 44c | 101.56$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c76…c926backed Jets | 58c | 95.24$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 583 | 52.1%304 W · 279 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5467…ffffbacked Avalanche | 42c | 95.24$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 89 | 44.9%40 W · 49 L | -7.6wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -20%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3c04…2e2dbacked Jets | 60c | 85$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 542 | 60.3%327 W · 215 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb580…9b95backed Avalanche | 38c | 82$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.24 | 74 | 50%37 W · 37 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc53…6bd3backed Avalanche | 42c | 71.43$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 540 | 49.4%267 W · 273 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe2…6158backed Jets | 60c | 58.33$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.33 | 401 | 62.1%249 W · 152 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Jets | 61c | 46$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.94 | 2,664 | 51.6%1,375 W · 1,289 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x781c…db68backed Avalanche | 34c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 820 | 43%353 W · 467 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd827…fe79backed Avalanche | 42c | 35.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 104 | 38.5%40 W · 64 L | -4.1wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…22ebbacked Jets | 60c | 35$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 690 | 61.6%425 W · 265 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Jets | 58c | 34$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.28 | 619 | 59.1%366 W · 253 L | +17.9wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7810…b011backed Avalanche | 42c | 34$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Avalanche | 40c | 26.62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 1,092 | 50.4%550 W · 542 L | +12.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07c9…9f5bbacked Jets | 60c | 23.33$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.33 | 365 | 61.9%226 W · 139 L | +12.5wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0bb…049fbacked Jets | 59c | 17.87$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.37 | 149 | 63.8%95 W · 54 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce8…2f9ebacked Jets | 63c | 17.39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.38 | 67 | 58.2%39 W · 28 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Avalanche (-1.5)this page
- Avalanche vs. JetsJets won
- Avalanche vs. Jets: O/U 4.5Under won
- Avalanche vs. Jets: O/U 5.5Under won
- Avalanche vs. Jets: O/U 6.5Under won
- Avalanche vs. Jets: O/U 7.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.