Champions League · resolved market
Will Monaco vs. Benfica end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd73d6173b7a7db56f0b8b197929047a45765ddc249f8b8ce7ed5277627d44c26
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $26,164
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,126
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,164 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e5f…bf45backed Yes | 28c | 7,143$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5314…910cbacked No | 72c | 6,443$4,639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,804 | 57 | 54.4%31 W · 26 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74e1…e6a2backed Yes | 28c | 4,026$1,127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,127.22 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.32per pick | 52cpaid | -54.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x40e3…0787backed Yes | 26c | 2,222$580 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$580 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | +5.9wins | +0.06per pick | 38cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3503…b8babacked No | 72c | 2,185$1,573 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$611.75 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked No | 72c | 1,582$1,139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$442.66 | 368 | 51.1%188 W · 180 L | +15.7wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked No | 73c | 685.54$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.1 | 176 | 58.5%103 W · 73 L | +10.3wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x364b…d12abacked No | 76c | 558.03$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.03 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe27b…858fbacked Yes | 26c | 485$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.1 | 168 | 36.3%61 W · 107 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98a2…2d25backed Yes | 27c | 470.37$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5327…3b80backed Yes | 29c | 437.93$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 65 | 27.7%18 W · 47 L | -8.3wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x25ab…84f7backed Yes | 28c | 432.18$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.01 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa7c7…88e3backed Yes | 27c | 416.15$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa9d3…9d4bbacked No | 72c | 415.99$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.48 | 449 | 55.7%250 W · 199 L | +5.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x62ca…6dbfbacked No | 75c | 400$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb2b4…2dbdbacked No | 74c | 386.28$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.28 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e8c…b6a8backed Yes | 27c | 370.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2105…64adbacked Yes | 28c | 362.37$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed No | 72c | 361.56$262 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.85 | 380 | 48.7%185 W · 195 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b7…69a1backed Yes | 28c | 358.2$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb92f…566bbacked Yes | 28c | 357.14$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 31cpaid | +58.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0e…72b9backed No | 75c | 266.67$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3c8…a8d1backed Yes | 28c | 262.49$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3989…27b1backed Yes | 28c | 250$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 105 | 43.8%46 W · 59 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf22a…1697backed No | 73c | 109.1$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.46 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked No | 75c | 107.83$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.03 | 307 | 54.1%166 W · 141 L | +11.9wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c87…70d5backed Yes | 28c | 68.57$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 135 | 34.8%47 W · 88 L | -10.9wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6956…c37fbacked No | 74c | 67.55$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.56 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc88e…f3e1backed Yes | 27c | 66.46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.95 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b95…ebe9backed Yes | 27c | 55.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 36cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49f7…046bbacked No | 74c | 52$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.52 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fcc…a870backed No | 73c | 32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe980…75e1backed No | 74c | 26.28$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.83 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.17per pick | 71cpaid | +27.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf6c7…93fbbacked No | 73c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb318…4e77backed No | 73c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.13 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab14…d1b0backed No | 74c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2285…5610backed No | 74c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.68 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e0a…e4e6backed No | 73c | 18$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.86 | 469 | 56.5%265 W · 204 L | +8.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x851c…f2f0backed No | 74c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc3…b736backed No | 73c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.59 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 72cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0cee…d3afbacked No | 73c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.59 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1118…1156backed No | 73c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.59 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x88ea…6448backed No | 74c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0547…fb35backed No | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 110 | 70%77 W · 33 L | +7.9wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1aee…55bdbacked No | 74c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x603f…dc31backed No | 74c | 14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Monaco vs. Benfica end in a draw?this page
- Will Benfica win on 2025-02-12?Yes won
- Will Monaco win on 2025-02-12?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.