Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on May 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd744defd5951e40faae93a4a580656a8215ae97b6deefe2eef74ec79da5437c9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,470
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $8,461
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,470 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7e2b…bddabacked No | 62c | 789.46$486 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$486.48 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 61c | 383.55$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$149.09 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked No | 28c | 317.68$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.92 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7299…a763backed No | 67c | 284.06$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.5 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 26c | 227.26$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168.16 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 62c | 195.89$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.53 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed30…87b1backed Yes | 76c | 156.89$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.89 | 185 | 49.7%92 W · 93 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 25c | 156$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.56 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 33c | 137.37$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.66 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 34c | 127.97$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.09 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 49c | 120.26$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.13 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8961…ab1abacked No | 63c | 106.76$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 254 | 66.9%170 W · 84 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 63c | 105.23$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.63 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 42c | 99.98$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.1 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 31c | 99.92$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.97 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4ee…e1acbacked Yes | 56c | 98$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.02 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3e96…b306backed Yes | 70c | 91.19$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.98 | 201 | 44.8%90 W · 111 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 37c | 86.8$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.51 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 34c | 85.98$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.27 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3646…ba5abacked Yes | 49c | 79.98$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.44 | 407 | 41.3%168 W · 239 L | +32.5wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…75f3backed Yes | 63c | 74.68$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 221 | 71%157 W · 64 L | +14.5wins | +0.07per pick | 65cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 62c | 74.53$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.1 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 36c | 68.32$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.85 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 36c | 59.99$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.39 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0832…8681backed Yes | 54c | 59.46$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.24 | 346 | 51.2%177 W · 169 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed Yes | 66c | 58.69$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.81 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 39c | 52.51$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.81 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 49.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 60c | 49.6$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 40c | 49.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.9 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 57c | 48.79$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.63 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f8…fcf6backed No | 67c | 48$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.27 | 113 | 63.7%72 W · 41 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0957…77e8backed No | 34c | 41.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.11 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef22…441dbacked Yes | 64c | 41.45$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.96 | 100 | 53%53 W · 47 L | +20.3wins | +0.20per pick | 33cpaid | +86.2%equal weight | 68+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 30c | 40.87$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.64 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked Yes | 29c | 38.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.98 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…0379backed Yes | 41c | 37.69$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.28 | 548 | 57.5%315 W · 233 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c8…d97cbacked Yes | 57c | 34.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.98 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.33per pick | 53cpaid | -65%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 49c | 33.39$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.33 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xbf0c…c7f6backed Yes | 33c | 32.84$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.84 | 104 | 43.3%45 W · 59 L | +8.9wins | +0.09per pick | 35cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa4c…c44fbacked Yes | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.24per pick | 56cpaid | +48%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb7f…0abbbacked No | 64c | 32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.44 | 189 | 48.1%91 W · 98 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3738…ed32backed Yes | 64c | 31$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 201 | 44.3%89 W · 112 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…1840backed No | 58c | 30.22$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.53 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2995…8410backed Yes | 37c | 29.99$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.81 | 196 | 32.7%64 W · 132 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe07e…0e7ebacked No | 65c | 26.95$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.41 | 334 | 50.6%169 W · 165 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45ee…983cbacked Yes | 39c | 25.38$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.37 | 71 | 52.1%37 W · 34 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5de8…3eddbacked No | 60c | 22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 461 | 48.8%225 W · 236 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 68c | 21.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa65…18a8backed No | 69c | 20.48$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 80 | 63.8%51 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 64c | 20.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed Yes | 70c | 20.01$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.96 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a3b…256ebacked Yes | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.88 | 233 | 62.2%145 W · 88 L | +33.5wins | +0.14per pick | 48cpaid | +31.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe25a…31c4backed Yes | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ab…5cf7backed No | 63c | 19.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 208 | 52.4%109 W · 99 L | -10.4wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe47e…f8abbacked Yes | 70c | 18.38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 240 | 66.3%159 W · 81 L | +13.5wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 58c | 17.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.48 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on May 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C or higher on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 9°C or below on May 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.