Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on May 17?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa0a6aa8b68e46d11f57e39effd4dd55b8256f601df4208c20ba341b512982376
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,979
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,263
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,979 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 57 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xec86…60e4backed Yes | 31c | 679.58$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.13 | 1,163 | 38.2%444 W · 719 L | +19.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 20c | 363.76$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.81 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3e96…b306backed Yes | 10c | 305.14$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.24 | 201 | 44.8%90 W · 111 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7299…a763backed No | 73c | 284.1$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.1 | 236 | 68.2%161 W · 75 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 71cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5937…ae8dbacked Yes | 54c | 279.61$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151 | 185 | 67.6%125 W · 60 L | +28.7wins | +0.16per pick | 52cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x5bc3…b0aebacked Yes | 34c | 235.46$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.37 | 959 | 33.5%321 W · 638 L | +28.3wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a2…c0c5backed No | 70c | 212.31$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.86 | 44 | 63.6%28 W · 16 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 70cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 24c | 188.8$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.46 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8961…ab1abacked No | 66c | 184.98$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.73 | 254 | 66.9%170 W · 84 L | -7.6wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 30c | 170.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.36 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 30c | 163.48$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.88 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 74c | 155.61$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.89 | 767 | 55.4%425 W · 342 L | +40.7wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 35c | 122.39$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.61 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 23c | 120.14$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.14 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xfd8e…aea4backed No | 72c | 109$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.52 | 2,268 | 79.5%1,803 W · 465 L | +98.4wins | +0.04per pick | 75cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 22c | 99.97$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.99 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 78c | 86.06$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.95 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 66c | 83.94$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.47 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Yes | 31c | 81.65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.1 | 601 | 21%126 W · 475 L | -25.4wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x02ae…890cbacked Yes | 29c | 74.94$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.65 | 42 | 33.3%14 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 23c | 70.66$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.01 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 38c | 56$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.46 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x347b…c9bcbacked No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 201 | 73.1%147 W · 54 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.08 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 41c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.5 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3738…ed32backed Yes | 40c | 48$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 201 | 44.3%89 W · 112 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked No | 71c | 48$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.8 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…00c3backed No | 79c | 45$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 250 | 42.4%106 W · 144 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf10e…4308backed No | 67c | 44.5$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 236 | 73.3%173 W · 63 L | +28.6wins | +0.12per pick | 61cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x67f4…df0fbacked No | 69c | 43.48$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.48 | 102 | 65.7%67 W · 35 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 72cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes | 26c | 43.37$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.29 | 960 | 15%144 W · 816 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 68c | 42.06$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.43 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0957…77e8backed No | 70c | 41.79$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.39 | 107 | 57.9%62 W · 45 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked No | 72c | 41.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x973e…15c2backed No | 72c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.3 | 173 | 64.7%112 W · 61 L | -10.3wins | -0.06per pick | 71cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 41c | 40$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.6 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f8…fcf6backed No | 80c | 37$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.52 | 113 | 63.7%72 W · 41 L | -3.7wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 45c | 35.83$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 71c | 33.13$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.67 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6acf…27a6backed Yes | 60c | 30.47$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.38 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 68cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05e1…4c1ebacked No | 80c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.05 | 496 | 75.4%374 W · 122 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49c4…db5bbacked No | 62c | 27.21$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 1,275 | 36.5%465 W · 810 L | -15.9wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 57c | 27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.61 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef65…d64fbacked No | 66c | 26$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.84 | 191 | 71.7%137 W · 54 L | +12.1wins | +0.06per pick | 65cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x50d8…0a0ebacked No | 61c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.36 | 399 | 68.9%275 W · 124 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb427…4c62backed No | 67c | 23.66$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.7 | 223 | 50.7%113 W · 110 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x88c7…febcbacked No | 61c | 23.61$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.21 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.07per pick | 63cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3972…a677backed No | 70c | 22.19$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 817 | 56.4%461 W · 356 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 72c | 22$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2a1…4ca0backed No | 71c | 20.8$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.03 | 73 | 56.2%41 W · 32 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 60c | 20.33$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 64c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.14 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe018…a22dbacked No | 64c | 19.28$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.93 | 90 | 58.9%53 W · 37 L | +3.4wins | +0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 72c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 74c | 17.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.5 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4167…f99abacked No | 71c | 16.87$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.87 | 1,036 | 68.6%711 W · 325 L | -33.9wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0386…e95ebacked No | 72c | 16.59$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.59 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on May 17?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 14°C on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 15°C on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on May 17?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 19°C or higher on May 17?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 9°C or below on May 17?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.