Dota2 · resolved market
Game Handicap: ILL (-1.5) vs Habibis (+1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd75753806c6a29b59a093b69f1d13a4e81e75df0707f169cd812ccbbe5c1b0b4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ilbirs eSportsof Ilbirs eSports, Habibis
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,509
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,226
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,509 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbf3b…0375backed Habibis | 46c | 375$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.5 | 122 | 50%61 W · 61 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a1…ceb5backed Ilbirs eSports | 56c | 354.86$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$155.86 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8935…7daabacked Ilbirs eSports | 57c | 325.8$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.14 | 1,154 | 47.7%550 W · 604 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2141…0effbacked Habibis | 42c | 200$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5a…9ef7backed Ilbirs eSports | 54c | 192.47$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.54 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04a1…d6e6backed Habibis | 42c | 149.99$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.8wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa72a…5685backed Ilbirs eSports | 54c | 147.95$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.06 | 136 | 45.6%62 W · 74 L | -7.9wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x72aa…90e0backed Habibis | 38c | 120.06$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.92 | 628 | 41.1%258 W · 370 L | -17.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41a5…75bbbacked Ilbirs eSports | 58c | 104.22$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.37 | 614 | 49.5%304 W · 310 L | +9.6wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe8a…23cebacked Habibis | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.5 | 222 | 40.1%89 W · 133 L | -14.9wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xffc4…b347backed Ilbirs eSports | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 294 | 66%194 W · 100 L | +9.5wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2529…548abacked Habibis | 39c | 100$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.5 | 308 | 44.8%138 W · 170 L | -5.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca7c…e994backed Habibis | 46c | 96.5$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.39 | 231 | 49.4%114 W · 117 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Ilbirs eSports | 53c | 89.94$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.27 | 264 | 45.1%119 W · 145 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5b…1578backed Habibis | 44c | 81.5$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 92 | 39.1%36 W · 56 L | -6.7wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x60ec…f7b0backed Ilbirs eSports | 62c | 75$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.5 | 503 | 53.9%271 W · 232 L | +26.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Ilbirs eSports | 59c | 75$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.75 | 745 | 49.3%367 W · 378 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26d0…566ebacked Habibis | 45c | 66.67$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x91ac…5ff3backed Habibis | 43c | 57.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.57 | 213 | 44.1%94 W · 119 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54e0…b02cbacked Habibis | 32c | 51.19$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 405 | 34.6%140 W · 265 L | -4.4wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Habibis | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1,164 | 47.2%549 W · 615 L | -29.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7d6…cab5backed Ilbirs eSports | 51c | 49.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.29 | 513 | 64.9%333 W · 180 L | +16.4wins | +0.03per pick | 62cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26c2…0cdfbacked Habibis | 44c | 42.15$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.35 | 186 | 52.2%97 W · 89 L | +9.1wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked Ilbirs eSports | 53c | 41.51$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.51 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8859…89d6backed Habibis | 47c | 36.06$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.95 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69fa…e259backed Habibis | 48c | 35.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.07 | 282 | 52.1%147 W · 135 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed Habibis | 47c | 31.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.86 | 529 | 50.9%269 W · 260 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x700b…8d0bbacked Habibis | 47c | 29.36$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.8 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4228…b838backed Habibis | 43c | 26.06$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.22 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Game Handicap: ILL (-1.5) vs Habibis (+1.5)this page
- Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Habibis (BO3) - European Pro League Group BIlbirs eSports won
- Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Habibis - Game 1 WinnerIlbirs eSports won
- Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Habibis - Game 2 WinnerIlbirs eSports won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.