Dota2 · resolved market

Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Habibis - Game 1 Winner

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf5d743b409464e48a6c6830bd1f786f21304a78719a391dd85acaadf49a746c0

Rebuilt 19 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Ilbirs eSportsof Ilbirs eSports, Habibis
Resolved: Jun 30, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $26,591
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $30,960

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $26,591 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Dota2
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xf3de…6fe8backed Ilbirs eSports	80c	2,456$1,954 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$501.77	100	75%75 W · 25 L	+3.5wins	+0.03per pick	72cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Ilbirs eSports	75c	1,638$1,236 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$401.63	711	43%306 W · 405 L	-3.9wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf3ce…a57abacked Habibis	28c	1,594$445 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$445	1,202	59.3%713 W · 489 L	+64.6wins	+0.05per pick	54cpaid	+10.4%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x51db…f9b3backed Habibis	30c	1,366$412 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$411.85	2,828	43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L	-39.5wins	-0.01per pick	45cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd56b…342dbacked Habibis	35c	1,254$435 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$435.38	38	50%19 W · 19 L	-1.6wins	-0.04per pick	54cpaid	-12%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x60ec…f7b0backed Ilbirs eSports	68c	812.83$553 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$259.74	503	53.9%271 W · 232 L	+26.7wins	+0.05per pick	49cpaid	+4.2%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x81c3…d67dbacked Habibis	18c	811.19$148 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$147.77	70	45.7%32 W · 38 L	+1.7wins	+0.02per pick	43cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba57…1e84backed Ilbirs eSports	79c	629.18$500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$129.18	150	50.7%76 W · 74 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	51cpaid	-4.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a4b…a0c7backed Habibis	39c	623$240 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$240.27	7	42.9%3 W · 4 L	-0.3wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	+2.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x13ee…01aebacked Ilbirs eSports	65c	615$400 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$215.45	67	44.8%30 W · 37 L	-2.0wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-13.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf490…63afbacked Habibis	33c	573$189 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$189.09	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	-2.0wins	-0.16per pick	39cpaid	-56.7%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0c67…d062backed Habibis	17c	513.82$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87	1,137	42.3%481 W · 656 L	-27.5wins	-0.02per pick	45cpaid	-9.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Habibis	20c	509.77$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103.31	1,458	48.5%707 W · 751 L	+27.0wins	+0.02per pick	47cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x149a…49d0backed Ilbirs eSports	73c	500$365 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$135	507	69.2%351 W · 156 L	+33.7wins	+0.07per pick	63cpaid	+10.4%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x8342…6dc8backed Habibis	22c	454.53$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	480	54%259 W · 221 L	+11.6wins	+0.02per pick	52cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf3ef…ca6bbacked Ilbirs eSports	69c	447.61$308 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$140.09	1,066	57%608 W · 458 L	+52.7wins	+0.05per pick	52cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x86bf…a172backed Habibis	36c	411.85$149 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$149.43	41	39%16 W · 25 L	-1.4wins	-0.04per pick	43cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x880d…39bcbacked Habibis	25c	361.47$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$91.58	327	56.9%186 W · 141 L	+8.9wins	+0.03per pick	54cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf991…3965backed Habibis	32c	328.4$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105.74	312	48.4%151 W · 161 L	+6.4wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	0%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb84…21a7backed Ilbirs eSports	77c	313.87$243 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$71.05	24	58.3%14 W · 10 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	61cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfab…f067backed Habibis	27c	301.87$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.41	480	57.1%274 W · 206 L	+8.3wins	+0.02per pick	55cpaid	-3.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9417…8440backed Habibis	36c	300$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108	94	55.3%52 W · 42 L	+11.1wins	+0.12per pick	44cpaid	+41%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x703b…e371backed Ilbirs eSports	58c	300$175 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$125	515	44.9%231 W · 284 L	+40.9wins	+0.08per pick	37cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	58+0.08 edge/pick
0x0593…9712backed Ilbirs eSports	68c	291.96$197 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$94.71	217	69.1%150 W · 67 L	+16.9wins	+0.08per pick	61cpaid	+9%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbd3a…91fdbacked Ilbirs eSports	64c	282.82$181 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$101.82	146	55.5%81 W · 65 L	+8.1wins	+0.06per pick	50cpaid	+13%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x31a4…7afcbacked Habibis	20c	270.18$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.04	953	42.2%402 W · 551 L	-20.7wins	-0.02per pick	44cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Habibis	21c	270$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.15	1,901	47.6%905 W · 996 L	+4.6wins	0.00per pick	47cpaid	-6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x22c7…3e23backed Habibis	35c	247.61$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.93	42	47.6%20 W · 22 L	+3.6wins	+0.08per pick	39cpaid	+14.8%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x0fe0…fb5bbacked Habibis	44c	225.87$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.69	99	64.6%64 W · 35 L	+3.5wins	+0.04per pick	61cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb421…8856backed Ilbirs eSports	65c	204.62$133 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$71.62	261	47.9%125 W · 136 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	48cpaid	-2.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4133…165bbacked Ilbirs eSports	57c	202.63$115 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$88.03	1,275	33.5%427 W · 848 L	-15.6wins	-0.01per pick	35cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2529…548abacked Habibis	24c	200.78$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.94	308	44.8%138 W · 170 L	-5.8wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe8a…23cebacked Habibis	25c	200$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.49	222	40.1%89 W · 133 L	-14.9wins	-0.07per pick	47cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x505f…645ebacked Habibis	21c	200$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41	1,280	45%576 W · 704 L	-12.7wins	-0.01per pick	46cpaid	-15%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2363…ed78backed Habibis	38c	176.81$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67	16	43.8%7 W · 9 L	-0.5wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-22%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x72aa…90e0backed Habibis	28c	174.62$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.55	628	41.1%258 W · 370 L	-17.8wins	-0.03per pick	44cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x83c8…3b6cbacked Ilbirs eSports	68c	147.06$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$47.06	913	56.1%512 W · 401 L	+16.2wins	+0.02per pick	54cpaid	+0.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3ae0…8661backed Ilbirs eSports	65c	145.21$94 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$50.76	159	40.9%65 W · 94 L	-9.4wins	-0.06per pick	47cpaid	-18.3%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfbd8…d03fbacked Ilbirs eSports	73c	134$98 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$36.18	179	65.4%117 W · 62 L	+1.7wins	+0.01per pick	64cpaid	+2.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x14f3…0796backed Habibis	21c	130.76$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	340	41.2%140 W · 200 L	-10.3wins	-0.03per pick	44cpaid	-15%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6e96…e128backed Habibis	22c	128.59$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	109	37.6%41 W · 68 L	-2.2wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc37d…e586backed Habibis	25c	126.2$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.55	387	59.4%230 W · 157 L	+26.6wins	+0.07per pick	53cpaid	+11.3%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x45e3…de14backed Habibis	36c	124.57$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.38	37	75.7%28 W · 9 L	+4.1wins	+0.11per pick	65cpaid	+14.2%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0xffc4…b347backed Ilbirs eSports	70c	123.33$86 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$37	294	66%194 W · 100 L	+9.5wins	+0.03per pick	63cpaid	+3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2e3c…08babacked Habibis	28c	121.58$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.54	1,702	41.2%701 W · 1,001 L	-44.0wins	-0.03per pick	44cpaid	-26.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x431a…50d7backed Habibis	38c	119.93$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46	213	44.1%94 W · 119 L	-6.3wins	-0.03per pick	47cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcb3e…9120backed Habibis	39c	106.88$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42	66	34.8%23 W · 43 L	-5.3wins	-0.08per pick	43cpaid	-28.4%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xac93…0cfcbacked Ilbirs eSports	68c	100.19$68 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$32.06	581	52.5%305 W · 276 L	-10.5wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x48f7…3aebbacked Habibis	22c	100$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	668	48.5%324 W · 344 L	-11.5wins	-0.02per pick	50cpaid	-7.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ab1…638bbacked Ilbirs eSports	63c	94.72$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$34.72	47	66%31 W · 16 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	66cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6e2f…9123backed Habibis	25c	90.44$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.61	73	41.1%30 W · 43 L	-6.1wins	-0.08per pick	49cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf66e…14b7backed Habibis	22c	85$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.65	174	43.1%75 W · 99 L	-8.2wins	-0.05per pick	48cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6707…d4d8backed Ilbirs eSports	62c	80.65$50 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30.65	137	64.2%88 W · 49 L	+3.7wins	+0.03per pick	62cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6700…67c4backed Habibis	29c	75$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.75	18	50%9 W · 9 L	+1.6wins	+0.09per pick	41cpaid	+49.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7179…7d79backed Habibis	42c	75$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.5	190	53.2%101 W · 89 L	+11.5wins	+0.06per pick	47cpaid	+15.1%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x17ef…9a2cbacked Ilbirs eSports	68c	58.82$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.82	148	56.8%84 W · 64 L	+4.9wins	+0.03per pick	53cpaid	+6.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Ilbirs eSports	64c	58.2$37 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$21.03	935	46.4%434 W · 501 L	-15.7wins	-0.02per pick	48cpaid	-15.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x12bc…bf2fbacked Ilbirs eSports	78c	56.96$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$12.28	178	53.4%95 W · 83 L	+3.7wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+1.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b41…2c02backed Habibis	34c	55.88$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	726	37.5%272 W · 454 L	+3.4wins	0.00per pick	37cpaid	-4%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x349e…867bbacked Habibis	20c	55$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	153	42.5%65 W · 88 L	-8.5wins	-0.06per pick	48cpaid	-15.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x8b6f…aab3backed Ilbirs eSports	65c	53.85$35 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$18.85	426	60.1%256 W · 170 L	+19.0wins	+0.04per pick	56cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xca08…08bdbacked Habibis	32c	50$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	88	51.1%45 W · 43 L	-2.9wins	-0.03per pick	54cpaid	-12.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x08fa…f1e0backed Ilbirs eSports	65c	43.75$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$15.14	813	45.1%367 W · 446 L	-26.7wins	-0.03per pick	48cpaid	-20%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5407…5bbdbacked Ilbirs eSports	65c	40.62$26 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14.22	37	45.9%17 W · 20 L	+1.7wins	+0.05per pick	41cpaid	+5.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xff34…694bbacked Habibis	33c	40.26$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.29	772	56.5%436 W · 336 L	+30.3wins	+0.04per pick	53cpaid	+0.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfd11…67b1backed Habibis	37c	37.84$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	43	55.8%24 W · 19 L	-1.7wins	-0.04per pick	60cpaid	+11.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x69fa…e259backed Habibis	44c	34.66$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.1	282	52.1%147 W · 135 L	-6.5wins	-0.02per pick	54cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x67b1…63ecbacked Habibis	34c	32.35$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	22	31.8%7 W · 15 L	-3.0wins	-0.13per pick	45cpaid	-35.4%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x77de…e67abacked Ilbirs eSports	63c	31.51$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.5	148	48%71 W · 77 L	+2.6wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	-2.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe1ab…faadbacked Ilbirs eSports	66c	30.3$20 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.3	10	80%8 W · 2 L	+0.7wins	+0.07per pick	73cpaid	+9.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x42c8…a25cbacked Ilbirs eSports	63c	30$19 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11	6	66.7%4 W · 2 L	+0.6wins	+0.11per pick	56cpaid	+9.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Ilbirs eSports	74c	23.71$18 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6.2	915	53.3%488 W · 427 L	+48.0wins	+0.05per pick	48cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2261…ffd1backed Ilbirs eSports	67c	23.2$15 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7.7	38	57.9%22 W · 16 L	+0.9wins	+0.02per pick	55cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x1a29…3cc9backed Ilbirs eSports	57c	20$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$8.6	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.05per pick	55cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc9e7…c067backed Ilbirs eSports	65c	19.99$13 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7	91	58.2%53 W · 38 L	-2.8wins	-0.03per pick	61cpaid	-9.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Habibis - Game 1 Winnerthis page
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Habibis (BO3) - European Pro League Group BIlbirs eSports won
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Habibis - Game 2 WinnerIlbirs eSports won
Game Handicap: ILL (-1.5) vs Habibis (+1.5)Ilbirs eSports won

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Habibis - Game 1 Winner

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event