Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Habibis (BO3) - European Pro League Group B
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x346e1314957e6a048d0dff6e90e70656219d25e0639682dbea9b0bbce77e69a0
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Ilbirs eSportsof Ilbirs eSports, Habibis
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,947
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,782
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,947 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x257e…ca61backed Habibis | 17c | 1,846$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$313.02 | 99 | 54.5%54 W · 45 L | +5.3wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x10ee…7b23backed Habibis | 5c | 1,564$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.19 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.27per pick | 13cpaid | +136.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a95…343bbacked Habibis | 15c | 1,541$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.16 | 698 | 35.2%246 W · 452 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb877…4601backed Habibis | 12c | 951.62$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.2 | 414 | 55.6%230 W · 184 L | +41.4wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x597d…b97dbacked Habibis | 11c | 909.09$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 207 | 38.6%80 W · 127 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1816…2ee6backed Habibis | 13c | 743.81$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.68 | 375 | 49.3%185 W · 190 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfab…f067backed Habibis | 6c | 431.22$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.59 | 480 | 57.1%274 W · 206 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51db…f9b3backed Habibis | 15c | 379.41$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.19 | 2,828 | 43.6%1,234 W · 1,594 L | -39.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1ee…519cbacked Habibis | 14c | 351$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.6 | 669 | 47.1%315 W · 354 L | -10.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Habibis | 17c | 330.65$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.43 | 1,458 | 48.5%707 W · 751 L | +27.0wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Habibis | 16c | 290.58$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.97 | 587 | 46.5%273 W · 314 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Habibis | 15c | 276.19$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.64 | 589 | 43%253 W · 336 L | -25.9wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Habibis | 15c | 260$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.11 | 165 | 39.4%65 W · 100 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -21%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Habibis | 15c | 248.35$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.05 | 440 | 49.3%217 W · 223 L | -6.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14e7…a32cbacked Habibis | 18c | 240.55$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.37 | 301 | 46.2%139 W · 162 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffc4…b347backed Ilbirs eSports | 79c | 240.07$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.42 | 294 | 66%194 W · 100 L | +9.5wins | +0.03per pick | 63cpaid | +3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93d7…c7a6backed Habibis | 20c | 222.99$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.99 | 48 | 56.3%27 W · 21 L | +3.2wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b35…0bfebacked Ilbirs eSports | 79c | 217$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.98 | 264 | 45.1%119 W · 145 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Habibis | 21c | 212.08$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 569 | 45.2%257 W · 312 L | -18.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a80…11c5backed Habibis | 17c | 183.74$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.08 | 192 | 49%94 W · 98 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5867…2e20backed Habibis | 19c | 139.68$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 253 | 39.1%99 W · 154 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Habibis | 22c | 116$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.78 | 57 | 42.1%24 W · 33 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…c3bdbacked Habibis | 15c | 110.78$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.87 | 136 | 47.1%64 W · 72 L | -7.2wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Habibis | 19c | 87.38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 656 | 47.3%310 W · 346 L | -8.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc96…2791backed Ilbirs eSports | 78c | 66$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.64 | 68 | 48.5%33 W · 35 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f85…e91abacked Ilbirs eSports | 76c | 58.98$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.98 | 114 | 52.6%60 W · 54 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Habibis | 21c | 55.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.74 | 713 | 42.5%303 W · 410 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Ilbirs eSports | 79c | 52$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.84 | 665 | 45.6%303 W · 362 L | +13.5wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked Habibis | 22c | 49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 251 | 43.4%109 W · 142 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aaf…8298backed Ilbirs eSports | 73c | 40$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.8 | 502 | 47.6%239 W · 263 L | +31.6wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked Ilbirs eSports | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd3a…91fdbacked Ilbirs eSports | 79c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.3 | 146 | 55.5%81 W · 65 L | +8.1wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a53…71a3backed Ilbirs eSports | 80c | 25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 185 | 62.7%116 W · 69 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 62cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc5e…f0c5backed Ilbirs eSports | 79c | 16.15$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.39 | 35 | 71.4%25 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 76cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Habibis (BO3) - European Pro League Group Bthis page
- Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Habibis - Game 1 WinnerIlbirs eSports won
- Dota 2: Ilbirs eSports vs Habibis - Game 2 WinnerIlbirs eSports won
- Game Handicap: ILL (-1.5) vs Habibis (+1.5)Ilbirs eSports won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.