Dota2 · resolved market
Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs South America Rejects - Game 1 Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd75f2fb70f86c7c4a9f5c231d43b557656aa148b953458b3528157605ef21e9a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- South America Rejectsof Yellow Submarine, South America Rejects
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Dota2every record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $78,448
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $93,605
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $78,448 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Dota2 is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Dota2 | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7b79…2618backed Yellow Submarine | 0c | 10,560$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.56 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd06c…cdafbacked Yellow Submarine | 24c | 7,334$1,793 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,792.93 | 1,186 | 43.2%512 W · 674 L | +42.2wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa486…25d4backed Yellow Submarine | 1c | 7,260$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.96 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +230%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40cf…d21dbacked Yellow Submarine | 0c | 5,630$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e1b…ecafbacked South America Rejects | 72c | 1,578$1,143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$435.88 | 966 | 45.1%436 W · 530 L | -7.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43dc…86e1backed Yellow Submarine | 26c | 1,319$341 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$341 | 242 | 44.6%108 W · 134 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2146…d41bbacked Yellow Submarine | 20c | 1,157$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230 | 897 | 41.5%372 W · 525 L | +22.7wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked South America Rejects | 69c | 724.7$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.31 | 531 | 39.5%210 W · 321 L | -37.2wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2978…4a1cbacked South America Rejects | 74c | 693.96$516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.52 | 68 | 73.5%50 W · 18 L | +7.3wins | +0.11per pick | 63cpaid | +20.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yellow Submarine | 16c | 653.08$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.68 | 656 | 25.6%168 W · 488 L | +14.7wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x810b…0848backed South America Rejects | 72c | 557.22$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.22 | 131 | 44.3%58 W · 73 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa35c…a113backed Yellow Submarine | 37c | 512.82$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.63 | 617 | 45.7%282 W · 335 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6eac…ed37backed Yellow Submarine | 10c | 502$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 574 | 49%281 W · 293 L | +33.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x98a7…b766backed South America Rejects | 77c | 476.57$367 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.71 | 602 | 51.2%308 W · 294 L | +3.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e3c…08babacked South America Rejects | 76c | 395.85$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.9 | 1,702 | 41.2%701 W · 1,001 L | -44.0wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9a8e…9408backed South America Rejects | 72c | 359.74$260 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.74 | 962 | 45.5%438 W · 524 L | +22.1wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e1…49ddbacked South America Rejects | 75c | 341.63$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.07 | 670 | 43.3%290 W · 380 L | -6.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2662…3f84backed South America Rejects | 72c | 329.99$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.4 | 145 | 62.1%90 W · 55 L | +4.0wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73a2…3b68backed South America Rejects | 77c | 328.72$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74 | 256 | 48%123 W · 133 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked South America Rejects | 76c | 292.33$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.14 | 2,378 | 47.2%1,123 W · 1,255 L | +15.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f2…eec6backed South America Rejects | 78c | 256.68$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.67 | 554 | 57.8%320 W · 234 L | +12.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe3f…0fcfbacked South America Rejects | 78c | 243.98$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.68 | 866 | 59.6%516 W · 350 L | -8.6wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x505f…645ebacked South America Rejects | 69c | 208.96$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.04 | 1,280 | 45%576 W · 704 L | -12.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d59…bdf3backed South America Rejects | 70c | 200$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 675 | 55%371 W · 304 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce1f…7392backed South America Rejects | 77c | 200$154 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 678 | 53.5%363 W · 315 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x02a4…6854backed South America Rejects | 66c | 159.99$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.9 | 1,797 | 55.8%1,003 W · 794 L | +37.5wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf437…ff9bbacked Yellow Submarine | 35c | 144.77$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 321 | 48.3%155 W · 166 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf9be…a0c1backed South America Rejects | 70c | 144.5$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.48 | 252 | 53.2%134 W · 118 L | +20.3wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4713…4d21backed Yellow Submarine | 16c | 135.96$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.18 | 1,120 | 36.1%404 W · 716 L | -39.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yellow Submarine | 10c | 131.68$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.94 | 59 | 35.6%21 W · 38 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d24…20b3backed South America Rejects | 75c | 120.5$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.38 | 542 | 46.7%253 W · 289 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3248…aad4backed Yellow Submarine | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8b8…61dcbacked South America Rejects | 80c | 100$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 180 | 65.6%118 W · 62 L | +9.4wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed South America Rejects | 75c | 97.75$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.44 | 1,260 | 49.7%626 W · 634 L | +21.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ffb…f7f0backed Yellow Submarine | 24c | 83.16$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 515 | 50.9%262 W · 253 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x38c5…0f5cbacked Yellow Submarine | 21c | 80$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 582 | 50.5%294 W · 288 L | +10.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x00d4…4c46backed South America Rejects | 59c | 77$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.65 | 217 | 48.8%106 W · 111 L | +15.1wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6117…2fafbacked South America Rejects | 78c | 70.78$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.57 | 173 | 73.4%127 W · 46 L | +10.4wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa163…3ccbbacked South America Rejects | 59c | 70$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.82 | 155 | 36.1%56 W · 99 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Yellow Submarine | 28c | 60.07$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 1,034 | 16.3%169 W · 865 L | -158.1wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -51%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked Yellow Submarine | 22c | 58.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.78 | 245 | 18.8%46 W · 199 L | -31.2wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -46%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xbb8e…08c1backed South America Rejects | 79c | 56$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.86 | 645 | 47.8%308 W · 337 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x300d…780dbacked South America Rejects | 56c | 54$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.76 | 72 | 55.6%40 W · 32 L | +8.8wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x99f7…1a59backed South America Rejects | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 253 | 51.4%130 W · 123 L | +23.3wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x91e0…26a0backed South America Rejects | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.77 | 302 | 50%151 W · 151 L | +11.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a84…a46bbacked South America Rejects | 71c | 50$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.5 | 90 | 44.4%40 W · 50 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -16%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dba…6929backed Yellow Submarine | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 63 | 41.3%26 W · 37 L | -3.9wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf97e…dff7backed South America Rejects | 80c | 33.12$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -58.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29a5…a3c4backed South America Rejects | 78c | 30$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 273 | 57.1%156 W · 117 L | +9.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1863…6174backed South America Rejects | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.3 | 304 | 60.2%183 W · 121 L | +10.2wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc74d…9690backed South America Rejects | 56c | 27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 182 | 48.9%89 W · 93 L | +15.0wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x848d…9867backed South America Rejects | 70c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 925 | 61.2%566 W · 359 L | +53.8wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…ba2cbacked South America Rejects | 76c | 22.89$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 122 | 63.9%78 W · 44 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…1c68backed South America Rejects | 79c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.2 | 641 | 49.9%320 W · 321 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6fc…b24ebacked South America Rejects | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 404 | 42.3%171 W · 233 L | -5.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Dota2 and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs South America Rejects - Game 1 Winnerthis page
- Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs South America Rejects (BO3) - 1win Essence Group AYellow Submarine won
- Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs South America Rejects - Game 2 WinnerYellow Submarine won
- Game Handicap: SAR (-1.5) vs Yellow Submarine (+1.5)Yellow Submarine won
- Games Total: O/U 2.5Over won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.