South American Leagues · resolved market
CA Paranaense vs. Coritiba FBC: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd7618bb49d5e34fbb7316866ba60d4c318a432f57a6973dc359dc89fc98c2227
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,443
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,443 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf5f9…87b0backed Over | 41c | 21,497$8,814 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$8,813.88 | 183 | 52.5%96 W · 87 L | +10.8wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 62c | 6,348$3,906 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,442.34 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf68a…5b1bbacked Under | 59c | 5,500$3,245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,255 | 81 | 53.1%43 W · 38 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Under | 59c | 4,000$2,360 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,640 | 165 | 43.6%72 W · 93 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 59c | 2,625$1,548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,076.27 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Under | 59c | 2,039$1,203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$835.99 | 378 | 51.3%194 W · 184 L | +7.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe524…d34fbacked Under | 60c | 1,858$1,115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$743.17 | 198 | 46%91 W · 107 L | +13.5wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +20%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1455…e5cdbacked Under | 59c | 1,399$825 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$573.59 | 233 | 54.9%128 W · 105 L | +7.1wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked Over | 33c | 937$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.41 | 113 | 23.9%27 W · 86 L | -3.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd49b…abffbacked Over | 40c | 660$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -48%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 27c | 513$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.51 | 1,038 | 49.4%513 W · 525 L | +14.9wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 67c | 485.59$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.01 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x797e…fc29backed Over | 44c | 454.55$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 24cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62c0…06a0backed Over | 27c | 322.1$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.97 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85d8…3cbebacked Over | 34c | 313.62$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.63 | 317 | 45.1%143 W · 174 L | -3.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3880…ab7dbacked Over | 56c | 178.88$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 126 | 45.2%57 W · 69 L | -10.7wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf7…e5a5backed Over | 46c | 173.91$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9b89…99e2backed Under | 59c | 155.07$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.58 | 209 | 53.1%111 W · 98 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…579cbacked Under | 63c | 112$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.44 | 87 | 63.2%55 W · 32 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf026…8df7backed Over | 35c | 107$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.15 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93f8…22babacked Under | 59c | 101.69$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.69 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 836 | 42.9%359 W · 477 L | -3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ca7…0c48backed Under | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 57c | 87.43$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.91 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Under | 61c | 83.26$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.22 | 357 | 58%207 W · 150 L | +17.0wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Over | 17c | 73.88$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.41 | 1,537 | 45.2%695 W · 842 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Over | 27c | 70.26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.84 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Over | 40c | 66.67$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.67 | 551 | 55%303 W · 248 L | +13.6wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d1d…3f8dbacked Under | 60c | 66.67$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ad…9d51backed Over | 33c | 60.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04b4…8d0bbacked Over | 37c | 53.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.69 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3f8…4d2abacked Under | 76c | 46.05$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.05 | 18 | 83.3%15 W · 3 L | +3.5wins | +0.19per pick | 64cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Over | 40c | 43.82$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 98 | 54.1%53 W · 45 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67e6…86edbacked Under | 59c | 41.67$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.08 | 68 | 42.6%29 W · 39 L | -8.7wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xc770…8dbbbacked Over | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | -6.9wins | -0.10per pick | 59cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x20ad…a7c6backed Under | 57c | 36.42$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.73 | 282 | 31.6%89 W · 193 L | -10.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc86…7e77backed Under | 66c | 33.74$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.57 | 116 | 64.7%75 W · 41 L | +7.5wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…34efbacked Under | 60c | 32.26$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.99 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa1…bf73backed Over | 36c | 27.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 251 | 47.8%120 W · 131 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94f9…e1b8backed Under | 60c | 23.19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.35 | 88 | 43.2%38 W · 50 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- CA Paranaense vs. Coritiba FBC: O/U 2.5this page
- CA Paranaense vs. Coritiba FBC: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- CA Paranaense vs. Coritiba FBC: O/U 1.5Over won
- CA Paranaense vs. Coritiba FBC: O/U 3.5Under won
- CA Paranaense vs. Coritiba FBC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: CA Paranaense (-1.5)CA Paranaense won
- Spread: CA Paranaense (-2.5)Coritiba FBC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.