Weather · resolved market
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on August 19?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd7a3b2fd4f4f29bdad17908a40e06eecd36cd407cc44106d64d06f6d2b1c5415
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,291
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,400
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,291 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8130…5a50backed Yes | 51c | 487.54$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$240.31 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 49c | 115$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.35 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 35c | 90.63$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.34 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x58f6…167ebacked Yes | 49c | 83$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.95 | 99 | 47.5%47 W · 52 L | +6.8wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 21c | 73.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.14 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4dec…001ebacked Yes | 79c | 70.28$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.07 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +2.0wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 47c | 65$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.45 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 38c | 62.09$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.75 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 55c | 59$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.64 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 69c | 56.66$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.81 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4834…cc1ebacked No | 49c | 56.65$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.76 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 55cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b47…da4abacked No | 49c | 56.44$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.66 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 55c | 55.15$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.33 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 49c | 51.45$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.21 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked No | 47c | 44.1$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 264 | 42.4%112 W · 152 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 43c | 43.53$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.78 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a41…2562backed Yes | 77c | 38.7$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.9 | 70 | 55.7%39 W · 31 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc6d…b81fbacked No | 50c | 38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 31c | 32.92$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 564 | 24.5%138 W · 426 L | -18.3wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked Yes | 45c | 32.54$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.97 | 283 | 44.5%126 W · 157 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa784…422ebacked Yes | 75c | 29.93$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.52 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0cd…d931backed No | 51c | 28.17$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 199 | 56.3%112 W · 87 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b73…174ebacked No | 50c | 28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.97 | 172 | 47.7%82 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 52c | 27.46$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…e09dbacked Yes | 45c | 26.66$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.66 | 253 | 42.3%107 W · 146 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed Yes | 48c | 26$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.52 | 1,126 | 51.2%577 W · 549 L | -21.2wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecd9…5565backed Yes | 49c | 25.17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.89 | 133 | 50.4%67 W · 66 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3db1…fdeebacked Yes | 52c | 20.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24e8…4546backed No | 60c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3,065 | 53.7%1,647 W · 1,418 L | -97.2wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x05f7…22bcbacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 131 | 67.2%88 W · 43 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f8…2f31backed No | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.22per pick | 59cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa546…4dcebacked Yes | 75c | 19.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C on August 19?this page
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on August 19?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on August 19?No won
- Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on August 19?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.