Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 6°C on March 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd7aba1f203eb9865293ea7dc4376058b6c02efc6a603a442b920a892c55315d9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,298
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $36,298 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 14c | 2,268$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.9 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4da2…41e5backed Yes | 2c | 1,475$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.85 | 99 | 29.3%29 W · 70 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 8c | 1,420$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.02 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe208…e98cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,402$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 45 | 51.1%23 W · 22 L | +5.4wins | +0.12per pick | 39cpaid | +22%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 3c | 1,345$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.98 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x740e…93a9backed Yes | 43c | 1,113$479 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.02 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f87…0918backed Yes | 3c | 955.95$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed No | 61c | 915.63$563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$352.77 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 4c | 911.44$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.52 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 4c | 767.3$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.81 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9582…0ddbbacked No | 65c | 742.16$479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.38 | 119 | 30.3%36 W · 83 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94a7…16eebacked Yes | 5c | 446$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.23 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -41%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 3c | 399.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb9…9481backed Yes | 5c | 389$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.74 | 40 | 35%14 W · 26 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 30cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 5c | 292.55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 249 | 32.9%82 W · 167 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab8…0397backed Yes | 4c | 277.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc556…9720backed No | 78c | 267.68$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.16 | 255 | 49%125 W · 130 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2ed…844ebacked Yes | 30c | 243.71$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.79 | 60 | 33.3%20 W · 40 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3c…eba1backed No | 74c | 201.68$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.23 | 134 | 53.7%72 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25f4…65a4backed Yes | 20c | 200$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 11c | 172.74$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 17c | 172.19$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.88 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 17c | 171.62$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.47 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 14c | 140$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 17c | 129.63$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.25 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 349 | 18.9%66 W · 283 L | +18.7wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 34c | 100$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x124e…f2dfbacked Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69e3…2288backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34cb…7588backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 92 | 33.7%31 W · 61 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +37.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5afb…92edbacked Yes | 12c | 90$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -22%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3024…8ecebacked Yes | 18c | 85.76$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 172 | 37.2%64 W · 108 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed Yes | 34c | 82.47$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.71 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9a…49e3backed Yes | 15c | 80$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 72c | 80$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.12 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 26c | 70$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f4…c82cbacked No | 55c | 59.99$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.94 | 78 | 60.3%47 W · 31 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x060c…9352backed Yes | 26c | 58.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 91 | 33%30 W · 61 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed Yes | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked No | 69c | 44.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.73 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…a96cbacked Yes | 45c | 39.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 810 | 29.1%236 W · 574 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb608…881ebacked Yes | 26c | 39.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.44 | 188 | 42.6%80 W · 108 L | +7.4wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef3…ac46backed Yes | 48c | 30.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 194 | 49%95 W · 99 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa9…a6c9backed No | 67c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.87 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f14…5f73backed No | 69c | 26.26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.14 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 74cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4540…dc3abacked Yes | 45c | 24.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb098…bbf0backed No | 74c | 24.79$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.47 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.39per pick | 72cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7e…ad97backed No | 69c | 21.58$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.58 | 119 | 56.3%67 W · 52 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a2c…0746backed No | 66c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.9 | 58 | 72.4%42 W · 16 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdf50…0c8dbacked No | 60c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 74c | 16.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 6°C on March 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C or higher on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C on March 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on March 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.