Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C on March 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbfac942af7cdd277dbb177bb5e790b1f0690eaf0012ff6ae413cede38ae0edde
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $62,127
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,127 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 127 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x57ee…8112backed No | 3c | 2,300$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.5 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4da2…41e5backed Yes | 38c | 1,815$681 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,133.62 | 99 | 29.3%29 W · 70 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x09a8…47c1backed Yes | 75c | 1,471$1,104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.84 | 418 | 45.2%189 W · 229 L | +14.7wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed No | 15c | 1,183$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.48 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 16c | 1,073$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$902 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 7c | 833.02$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x5999…83cabacked Yes | 31c | 570.84$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.42 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 72c | 564.39$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.36 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8a25…ba81backed No | 76c | 501.73$382 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.2 | 617 | 60.1%371 W · 246 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed No | 11c | 417.83$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.18 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 42c | 412.12$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$237.03 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 18c | 365.87$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$301.34 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 42c | 357.99$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.96 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a55…359cbacked Yes | 36c | 304.22$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$194.22 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 44c | 300$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$168 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 68c | 299.23$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.36 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9582…0ddbbacked Yes | 15c | 294.44$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.55 | 119 | 30.3%36 W · 83 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes | 24c | 293.29$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$221.5 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf5c7…db97backed Yes | 29c | 263.74$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.64 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6aa2…05fbbacked No | 66c | 255.53$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.94 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 79c | 251.27$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.29 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 14c | 248.29$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.59 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 16c | 237.93$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.93 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed No | 13c | 236.63$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.83 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes | 54c | 227.95$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.04 | 540 | 37.4%202 W · 338 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e2…fb46backed Yes | 67c | 224.61$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$74.18 | 167 | 38.9%65 W · 102 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 67c | 223.28$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.42 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 58c | 217$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.16 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 48c | 210.98$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.7 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 24c | 207.13$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.25 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef0f…1dc9backed Yes | 30c | 200$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 106 | 50%53 W · 53 L | +11.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +27%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x37a2…4965backed Yes | 19c | 199.4$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.32 | 52 | 28.8%15 W · 37 L | +4.2wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +43.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 50c | 195.91$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.2 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3c…eba1backed No | 59c | 182.03$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.01 | 134 | 53.7%72 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 72c | 177.36$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.48 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 12c | 172.61$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.15 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xad13…7ed6backed No | 63c | 160.35$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.72 | 919 | 67%616 W · 303 L | -10.6wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 18c | 153.99$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.57 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 18c | 153.69$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.37 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa681…4298backed Yes | 42c | 151$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.58 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.18per pick | 49cpaid | +40%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7e…ad97backed Yes | 21c | 150.13$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.88 | 119 | 56.3%67 W · 52 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 34c | 134.15$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88.63 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed No | 68c | 132.12$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.45 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x49d7…1635backed Yes | 16c | 130$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.4 | 54 | 53.7%29 W · 25 L | +3.7wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e7f…7bfbbacked Yes | 39c | 127.66$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.66 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47af…3999backed No | 68c | 126.26$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.86 | 326 | 52.1%170 W · 156 L | +7.6wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 55c | 124.29$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.64 | 249 | 32.9%82 W · 167 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cb…015fbacked Yes | 18c | 120$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.1 | 200 | 27.5%55 W · 145 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9bda…439fbacked No | 56c | 118.51$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.82 | 594 | 40.6%241 W · 353 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69e3…2288backed No | 65c | 118$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.44 | 52 | 44.2%23 W · 29 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe4f0…0bd2backed No | 55c | 117.39$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.57 | 92 | 50%46 W · 46 L | -9.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xbdda…310cbacked Yes | 21c | 116.83$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.99 | 67 | 37.3%25 W · 42 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 47c | 113.93$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.99 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabcc…32f6backed Yes | 48c | 111.26$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.14 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +20%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f87…0918backed Yes | 31c | 110.81$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.46 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 109.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.25 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed Yes | 27c | 107.04$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.66 | 165 | 20.6%34 W · 131 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes | 26c | 104.48$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.04 | 304 | 28%85 W · 219 L | +14.9wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed Yes | 37c | 100.42$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.17 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7d72…8e62backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89 | 1,817 | 8.1%148 W · 1,669 L | -1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xed24…1b47backed Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefae…3acebacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.5 | 268 | 27.2%73 W · 195 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 19c | 100$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9d…821fbacked Yes | 40c | 100$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.16 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fc…938bbacked Yes | 39c | 100$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +3.7wins | +0.13per pick | 29cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa06e…eba4backed No | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…476ebacked Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.24 | 163 | 36.2%59 W · 104 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9450…685abacked Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.8 | 75 | 21.3%16 W · 59 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 12c | 99.99$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.49 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 45c | 98.88$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.64 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked No | 19c | 97.9$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.69 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 47c | 94.68$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.87 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 30c | 92.13$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.49 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7baf…08f8backed Yes | 15c | 82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.7 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +297.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x094a…1274backed Yes | 47c | 81.48$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.48 | 77 | 28.6%22 W · 55 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 49c | 80.5$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.13 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x6639…7202backed Yes | 45c | 80.04$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.63 | 127 | 35.4%45 W · 82 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b09…aca6backed Yes | 29c | 80$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.8 | 262 | 36.6%96 W · 166 L | +9.5wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb397…283abacked Yes | 21c | 80$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.45 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x78bc…617cbacked Yes | 63c | 79.58$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.58 | 25 | 48%12 W · 13 L | -1.9wins | -0.08per pick | 56cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 31c | 76$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.76 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f8…2734backed No | 24c | 75.75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.05 | 313 | 41.5%130 W · 183 L | +18.3wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d6f…5e82backed Yes | 80c | 75.02$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.02 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 58cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 18c | 74.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.49 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a3a…fc88backed Yes | 41c | 73.23$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.23 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4701…ca83backed No | 57c | 72$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 164 | 56.7%93 W · 71 L | -9.6wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 27c | 70$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.4 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b47…c0dabacked Yes | 29c | 70$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.7 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +3.2wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 49c | 69.93$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.46 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6a…4614backed Yes | 27c | 69.69$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.69 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -11.5wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7a00…929bbacked No | 80c | 67.65$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.09 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x298e…107ebacked No | 67c | 66.46$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.49 | 261 | 69.3%181 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 80c | 66.08$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.6 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bba…a2eabacked Yes | 79c | 58.61$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.22 | 182 | 55.5%101 W · 81 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ca…2f70backed Yes | 38c | 52.33$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.33 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79b9…7d93backed Yes | 33c | 51.87$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.87 | 84 | 31%26 W · 58 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfda7…cf3bbacked Yes | 39c | 51.28$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.28 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08fb…a4bdbacked No | 58c | 51$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.53 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.48 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7913…8ef6backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C on March 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C or higher on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 6°C on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on March 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.