TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C on March 18?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$62,127

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $62,127 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 127 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x57ee…8112backed No3c2,300$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.51,72718%311 W · 1,416 L+74.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4da2…41e5backed Yes38c1,815$681 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,133.629929.3%29 W · 70 L+7.2wins+0.07per pick22cpaid+0.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x09a8…47c1backed Yes75c1,471$1,104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$367.8441845.2%189 W · 229 L+14.7wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe1f1…3a05backed No15c1,183$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.4853525.2%135 W · 400 L-8.7wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-32.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes16c1,073$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9021,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1c78…42e6backed No7c833.02$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6059742%251 W · 346 L+96.8wins+0.16per pick26cpaid+31.7%equal weight67+0.16 edge/pick
0x5999…83cabacked Yes31c570.84$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$395.42850%4 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.18per pick32cpaid+61.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1c26…6e31backed No72c564.39$408 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$408.3686050.9%438 W · 422 L+29.9wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8a25…ba81backed No76c501.73$382 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$382.261760.1%371 W · 246 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick60cpaid+5%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x2099…3024backed No11c417.83$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.1833620.2%68 W · 268 L+24.9wins+0.07per pick13cpaid+8.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x43b1…aba6backed Yes42c412.12$175 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237.0377428.6%221 W · 553 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-24.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes18c365.87$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$301.3417,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes42c357.99$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$207.961,59230.8%491 W · 1,101 L-6.4wins0.00per pick31cpaid-24.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9a55…359cbacked Yes36c304.22$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.222222.7%5 W · 17 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-40.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes44c300$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1684,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77f0…2b1fbacked No68c299.23$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.363,02849.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L+16.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9582…0ddbbacked Yes15c294.44$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$251.5511930.3%36 W · 83 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick26cpaid-9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes24c293.29$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$221.536819.6%72 W · 296 L+21.9wins+0.06per pick14cpaid-4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf5c7…db97backed Yes29c263.74$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.641540%6 W · 9 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-9.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6aa2…05fbbacked No66c255.53$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.943441.2%14 W · 20 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick45cpaid+1.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No79c251.27$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$198.293,17562.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L+12.6wins0.00per pick62cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5368…2d62backed Yes14c248.29$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.591,80427.4%494 W · 1,310 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+14.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes16c237.93$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.932,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1838…29b4backed No13c236.63$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.8396313.7%132 W · 831 L+33.9wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+35.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa4bd…e8a2backed Yes54c227.95$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.0454037.4%202 W · 338 L+6.6wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-13.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf4e2…fb46backed Yes67c224.61$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.1816738.9%65 W · 102 L+7.9wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+10.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3681…4e48backed No67c223.28$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.421,37556%770 W · 605 L+25.7wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes58c217$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.166,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1408…b4f8backed No48c210.98$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.71,60542.9%689 W · 916 L-86.9wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-23.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9be9…7017backed Yes24c207.13$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.2565627.4%180 W · 476 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick26cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef0f…1dc9backed Yes30c200$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14010650%53 W · 53 L+11.0wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+27%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x37a2…4965backed Yes19c199.4$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.325228.8%15 W · 37 L+4.2wins+0.08per pick21cpaid+43.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No50c195.91$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.27,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0x4e3c…eba1backed No59c182.03$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.0113453.7%72 W · 62 L-0.1wins0.00per pick54cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf7f4…1e34backed No72c177.36$128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.481,31245%590 W · 722 L+33.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+2.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes12c172.61$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.1593034%316 W · 614 L+53.0wins+0.06per pick28cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xad13…7ed6backed No63c160.35$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.7291967%616 W · 303 L-10.6wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6dce…4490backed Yes18c153.99$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.571,28519.5%250 W · 1,035 L+44.3wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ce3…4291backed Yes18c153.69$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$126.372,16523.8%516 W · 1,649 L+83.8wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa681…4298backed Yes42c151$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.58366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.18per pick49cpaid+40%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3d7e…ad97backed Yes21c150.13$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.8811956.3%67 W · 52 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes34c134.15$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.637,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8781…88c0backed No68c132.12$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.4532548.6%158 W · 167 L+11.8wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x49d7…1635backed Yes16c130$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.45453.7%29 W · 25 L+3.7wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+16.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8e7f…7bfbbacked Yes39c127.66$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.664332.6%14 W · 29 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x47af…3999backed No68c126.26$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.8632652.1%170 W · 156 L+7.6wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Yes55c124.29$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.6424932.9%82 W · 167 L+9.0wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-32.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc9cb…015fbacked Yes18c120$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$98.120027.5%55 W · 145 L+10.7wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+30.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x9bda…439fbacked No56c118.51$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.8259440.6%241 W · 353 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x69e3…2288backed No65c118$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.445244.2%23 W · 29 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-6.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe4f0…0bd2backed No55c117.39$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.579250%46 W · 46 L-9.4wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-20.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xbdda…310cbacked Yes21c116.83$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.996737.3%25 W · 42 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-15.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2698…2941backed No47c113.93$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.991,01161.2%619 W · 392 L+14.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-1.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xabcc…32f6backed Yes48c111.26$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.141060%6 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+20%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f87…0918backed Yes31c110.81$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.463732.4%12 W · 25 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No35c109.99$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.252,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xce31…19c4backed Yes27c107.04$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.6616520.6%34 W · 131 L+0.3wins0.00per pick20cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes26c104.48$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.0430428%85 W · 219 L+14.9wins+0.05per pick23cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7943…27a1backed Yes37c100.42$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.1732044.7%143 W · 177 L+9.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7d72…8e62backed Yes11c100$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$891,8178.1%148 W · 1,669 L-1.2wins0.00per pick8cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xed24…1b47backed Yes38c100$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$625141.2%21 W · 30 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick39cpaid-5.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xefae…3acebacked Yes13c100$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.526827.2%73 W · 195 L+2.7wins+0.01per pick26cpaid0%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfecc…77dabacked Yes19c100$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8140438.1%154 W · 250 L+12.4wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaf9d…821fbacked Yes40c100$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.16837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-19.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd9fc…938bbacked Yes39c100$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$612941.4%12 W · 17 L+3.7wins+0.13per pick29cpaid+34.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa06e…eba4backed No60c100$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$604520%9 W · 36 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-19.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7cde…476ebacked Yes45c100$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.2416336.2%59 W · 104 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9450…685abacked Yes16c100$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.87521.3%16 W · 59 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick20cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes12c99.99$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$87.491,02425%256 W · 768 L+20.4wins+0.02per pick23cpaid+39.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes45c98.88$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.6452828%148 W · 380 L-57.1wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-30.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x1f66…4c8dbacked No19c97.9$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.692,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes47c94.68$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.8712,17346.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L-42.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-13.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0484…4830backed Yes30c92.13$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.495,18647.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L+66.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7baf…08f8backed Yes15c82$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.72100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+297.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x094a…1274backed Yes47c81.48$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.487728.6%22 W · 55 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-9.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No49c80.5$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.1312,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x6639…7202backed Yes45c80.04$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.6312735.4%45 W · 82 L+0.4wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b09…aca6backed Yes29c80$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$56.826236.6%96 W · 166 L+9.5wins+0.04per pick33cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb397…283abacked Yes21c80$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.457233.3%24 W · 48 L+4.7wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+19.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x78bc…617cbacked Yes63c79.58$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.582548%12 W · 13 L-1.9wins-0.08per pick56cpaid-34.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes31c76$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.763,93935.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L+35.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb1f8…2734backed No24c75.75$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.0531341.5%130 W · 183 L+18.3wins+0.06per pick36cpaid-1.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6d6f…5e82backed Yes80c75.02$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.021866.7%12 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.08per pick58cpaid+0.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes18c74.99$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.4970133.5%235 W · 466 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1a3a…fc88backed Yes41c73.23$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.233633.3%12 W · 24 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-10.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4701…ca83backed No57c72$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.816456.7%93 W · 71 L-9.6wins-0.06per pick63cpaid-9.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xcc09…88edbacked Yes27c70$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.456627.7%157 W · 409 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0b47…c0dabacked Yes29c70$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.72737%10 W · 17 L+3.2wins+0.12per pick25cpaid+33.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes49c69.93$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.4632444.4%144 W · 180 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbd6a…4614backed Yes27c69.69$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.6910246.1%47 W · 55 L-11.5wins-0.11per pick57cpaid-19.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x7a00…929bbacked No80c67.65$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.092965.5%19 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-7.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x298e…107ebacked No67c66.46$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.4926169.3%181 W · 80 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick70cpaid-3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No80c66.08$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.61,84263.5%1,170 W · 672 L-42.5wins-0.02per pick66cpaid-6.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3bba…a2eabacked Yes79c58.61$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.2218255.5%101 W · 81 L+0.3wins0.00per pick55cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32ca…2f70backed Yes38c52.33$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.332133.3%7 W · 14 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-12.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x79b9…7d93backed Yes33c51.87$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.878431%26 W · 58 L+0.3wins0.00per pick31cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfda7…cf3bbacked Yes39c51.28$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.282326.1%6 W · 17 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-20.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x08fb…a4bdbacked No58c51$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.53250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-33.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd721…57a7backed Yes37c50$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.4845127.1%122 W · 329 L+7.1wins+0.02per pick25cpaid+25.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7913…8ef6backed No80c50$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402650%13 W · 13 L-2.8wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-12.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.