TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C on March 18?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$44,744

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,744 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 104 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes3c6,000$181 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1812,26718%407 W · 1,860 L-9.5wins0.00per pick18cpaid-14.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57ee…8112backed Yes1c3,000$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331,72718%311 W · 1,416 L+74.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1838…29b4backed Yes1c2,240$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.1796313.7%132 W · 831 L+33.9wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+35.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4ce3…4291backed Yes6c1,598$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.622,16523.8%516 W · 1,649 L+83.8wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes4c1,207$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.0130428%85 W · 219 L+14.9wins+0.05per pick23cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8e7f…7bfbbacked Yes6c1,207$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$754332.6%14 W · 29 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-10.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc09…88edbacked Yes2c1,133$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2756627.7%157 W · 409 L+17.8wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-1.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xad88…662dbacked Yes1c1,082$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.54911.1%1 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick10cpaid-70%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc736…e547backed Yes14c941.47$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13030%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8f87…0918backed Yes17c868.55$144 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.933732.4%12 W · 25 L+1.8wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes8c679.14$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.3417,35519.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L+396.7wins+0.02per pick18cpaid+15.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6897…a0a4backed Yes54c653.67$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3501346.2%6 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d7e…ad97backed Yes7c606.35$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.411956.3%67 W · 52 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4da2…41e5backed No26c546.48$142 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$404.089929.3%29 W · 70 L+7.2wins+0.07per pick22cpaid+0.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa12d…356abacked Yes48c539.59$261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$261.2210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes21c512$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.864,49619.6%882 W · 3,614 L+49.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xabfb…12e5backed Yes20c502.33$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.1332818.3%60 W · 268 L+15.8wins+0.05per pick13cpaid-10.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc6ca…d385backed Yes72c457.39$331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$330.982454.2%13 W · 11 L+1.4wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+17%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9582…0ddbbacked No29c422.71$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$300.3611930.3%36 W · 83 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick26cpaid-9.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xff2a…1b56backed Yes11c401.82$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.78185.6%1 W · 17 L-1.4wins-0.08per pick13cpaid+268.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe7f4…bc90backed No70c398$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1182020%4 W · 16 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-52.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6b69…688abacked Yes78c385.11$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30010%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.78per pick78cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8bac…cf49backed Yes61c342.88$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.41,08929.7%323 W · 766 L+36.6wins+0.03per pick26cpaid-1.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xce31…19c4backed Yes12c319.45$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.8416520.6%34 W · 131 L+0.3wins0.00per pick20cpaid-7.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes12c316.77$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.4453525.2%135 W · 400 L-8.7wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-32.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes8c309.35$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257,48137.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L+97.4wins+0.01per pick36cpaid+6.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x94a7…16eebacked Yes12c288.51$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.653218.8%6 W · 26 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-41%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb4c4…1513backed Yes17c270.28$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.1814338.5%55 W · 88 L+4.3wins+0.03per pick35cpaid+9.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes16c248.01$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.734918.9%66 W · 283 L+18.7wins+0.05per pick14cpaid+40.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x52fb…85bcbacked Yes10c228.29$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.49616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick10cpaid+5.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8638…2d36backed Yes11c227.2$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.9412954.3%70 W · 59 L-7.2wins-0.06per pick60cpaid-14.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1a06…15a9backed Yes9c217.39$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2056721.3%121 W · 446 L-25.2wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-18.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x8781…88c0backed Yes9c209.57$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.8232548.6%158 W · 167 L+11.8wins+0.04per pick45cpaid-2.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x43b1…aba6backed Yes40c200.64$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.477428.6%221 W · 553 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-24.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9be9…7017backed Yes25c199.8$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.8465627.4%180 W · 476 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick26cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5368…2d62backed Yes13c195.95$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.151,80427.4%494 W · 1,310 L+27.6wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+14.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xaa28…090bbacked Yes12c193.27$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.062,23915%335 W · 1,904 L+54.6wins+0.02per pick13cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6850…d921backed Yes8c192.58$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.188111.1%9 W · 72 L-4.5wins-0.06per pick17cpaid-56.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0b47…c0dabacked Yes12c184.62$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.012737%10 W · 17 L+3.2wins+0.12per pick25cpaid+33.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1348…7037backed No64c177.26$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.2317665.9%116 W · 60 L+12.7wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+18.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x85bd…7f75backed No41c172.14$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101.2725362.8%159 W · 94 L+16.0wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+5.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6dce…4490backed Yes7c169.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.71,28519.5%250 W · 1,035 L+44.3wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x913b…e741backed Yes60c167.12$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100650%3 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-23.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x32ca…2f70backed Yes13c156.31$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202133.3%7 W · 14 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-12.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes40c149.95$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.9870133.5%235 W · 466 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x574c…8a65backed Yes11c146.34$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.422924.1%7 W · 22 L-1.2wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-30.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes26c140$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.136,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4e3c…eba1backed No73c137.37$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.4413453.7%72 W · 62 L-0.1wins0.00per pick54cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb61f…976abacked Yes76c131.73$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100540%2 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.23per pick63cpaid-37.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3319…977abacked Yes12c125$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1526426.9%71 W · 193 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick28cpaid+3.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb397…283abacked Yes10c122.3$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.727233.3%24 W · 48 L+4.7wins+0.07per pick27cpaid+19.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3abf…b143backed Yes28c121.74$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.1524932.9%82 W · 167 L+9.0wins+0.04per pick29cpaid-32.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xae07…8059backed Yes32c120.29$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.9643525.3%110 W · 325 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick23cpaid-11.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes9c117.61$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.581,02425%256 W · 768 L+20.4wins+0.02per pick23cpaid+39.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5c38…f194backed No35c109.98$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.742,51747.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L+52.6wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc9cb…015fbacked Yes17c109.92$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.9320027.5%55 W · 145 L+10.7wins+0.05per pick22cpaid+30.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd9fc…938bbacked Yes14c108$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.952941.4%12 W · 17 L+3.7wins+0.13per pick29cpaid+34.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes11c104$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.922,82311.2%316 W · 2,507 L+17.7wins+0.01per pick11cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfecc…77dabacked Yes37c100$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3740438.1%154 W · 250 L+12.4wins+0.03per pick35cpaid-3.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6cb6…c66bbacked Yes15c100$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156939.1%27 W · 42 L-4.0wins-0.06per pick45cpaid-19.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa06e…eba4backed Yes16c100$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$164520%9 W · 36 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-19.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a03…84afbacked Yes70c100$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.5236930.6%113 W · 256 L+11.9wins+0.03per pick27cpaid+6.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7943…27a1backed Yes11c100$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.132044.7%143 W · 177 L+9.6wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7cde…476ebacked Yes26c99.98$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2616336.2%59 W · 104 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc1b9…7ce7backed Yes11c98.5$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.66825%2 W · 6 L-1.3wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-63.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ab8…0397backed Yes12c94.98$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.85644.6%25 W · 31 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-23.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4c7e…35e7backed Yes11c90.91$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102751.9%14 W · 13 L+2.1wins+0.08per pick44cpaid+0.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No39c87.44$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.214,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4676…b720backed No66c86.64$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.0598160.6%594 W · 387 L+9.2wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes36c84.15$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.9352828%148 W · 380 L-57.1wins-0.11per pick39cpaid-30.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x0044…cb2cbacked No33c79.52$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.1536819.6%72 W · 296 L+21.9wins+0.06per pick14cpaid-4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1c78…42e6backed No27c73.78$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.7859742%251 W · 346 L+96.8wins+0.16per pick26cpaid+31.7%equal weight67+0.16 edge/pick
0x541e…54debacked Yes14c71.43$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick17cpaid-31.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x094a…1274backed Yes19c70.1$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137728.6%22 W · 55 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-9.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes16c70$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.1532444.4%144 W · 180 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaa74…3067backed Yes67c68.85$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.13540%2 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.13per pick53cpaid-28.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc65a…a48ebacked Yes15c66.1$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.037764.9%50 W · 27 L-2.9wins-0.04per pick69cpaid-7.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf1c1…1bebbacked Yes73c60$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.927648.6%134 W · 142 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes54c57.82$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.2599961.8%617 W · 382 L+19.0wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2986…b3a9backed No30c50$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$352,99531.4%940 W · 2,055 L+41.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid+4.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbdda…310cbacked Yes39c48.19$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.986737.3%25 W · 42 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-15.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a73…e6a8backed Yes58c45.94$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.79425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.21per pick46cpaid-56.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe1a9…339ebacked No23c45$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.72100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+186%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1b64…72eabacked Yes38c42.22$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16137.7%1 W · 12 L-2.3wins-0.18per pick26cpaid-66.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x79b6…e042backed No56c40$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.844553.3%237 W · 208 L-21.2wins-0.05per pick58cpaid-13.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xbf9a…49e3backed Yes72c38.63$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.655129.4%15 W · 36 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick29cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d5f…867dbacked No50c37.74$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.8211449.1%56 W · 58 L-1.9wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x98d9…2c8cbacked No71c37.3$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.757659%340 W · 236 L-17.2wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-8.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0a6a…c64ebacked Yes44c36.95$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.152937.9%11 W · 18 L-6.6wins-0.23per pick61cpaid-42.9%equal weight36-0.12 edge/pick
0xf51b…ca1bbacked No42c36.74$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.441,27434%433 W · 841 L+46.9wins+0.04per pick30cpaid+4.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8ef3…ac46backed Yes44c34.09$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1519449%95 W · 99 L+0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3557…ae87backed No53c33.91$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.911540%6 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-30.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x77d5…5a62backed Yes35c30$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.492642.3%11 W · 15 L+1.2wins+0.05per pick38cpaid-3.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5948…56cbbacked No63c30$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.2515923.3%37 W · 122 L+8.5wins+0.05per pick18cpaid+5.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2aa9…a6c9backed Yes48c30$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.434362.8%27 W · 16 L+2.7wins+0.06per pick56cpaid+13.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0cab…7489backed No79c29.09$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.1610371.8%74 W · 29 L+4.3wins+0.04per pick68cpaid+3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x293a…24f9backed Yes40c25.09$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102142.9%9 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-11%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x1b24…f8a1backed Yes40c25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.08333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick48cpaid-45.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes65c24.92$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.3212,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x9b43…33cebacked No78c22.08$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.934369.4%238 W · 105 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick68cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.