Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C on March 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xae0ade4dbb1111aae919435c3d859e5b4c97fb24a75644814452424f76024412
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,744
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,744 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 104 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f66…4c8dbacked Yes | 3c | 6,000$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181 | 2,267 | 18%407 W · 1,860 L | -9.5wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 1c | 3,000$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 1c | 2,240$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.17 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 6c | 1,598$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.62 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb72…f5f9backed Yes | 4c | 1,207$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.01 | 304 | 28%85 W · 219 L | +14.9wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8e7f…7bfbbacked Yes | 6c | 1,207$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc09…88edbacked Yes | 2c | 1,133$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 566 | 27.7%157 W · 409 L | +17.8wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad88…662dbacked Yes | 1c | 1,082$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.54 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 10cpaid | -70%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc736…e547backed Yes | 14c | 941.47$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f87…0918backed Yes | 17c | 868.55$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.93 | 37 | 32.4%12 W · 25 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 8c | 679.14$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.34 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6897…a0a4backed Yes | 54c | 653.67$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d7e…ad97backed Yes | 7c | 606.35$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.4 | 119 | 56.3%67 W · 52 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4da2…41e5backed No | 26c | 546.48$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.08 | 99 | 29.3%29 W · 70 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa12d…356abacked Yes | 48c | 539.59$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$261.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 21c | 512$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.86 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 20c | 502.33$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.13 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc6ca…d385backed Yes | 72c | 457.39$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$330.98 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9582…0ddbbacked No | 29c | 422.71$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.36 | 119 | 30.3%36 W · 83 L | +5.1wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xff2a…1b56backed Yes | 11c | 401.82$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.78 | 18 | 5.6%1 W · 17 L | -1.4wins | -0.08per pick | 13cpaid | +268.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f4…bc90backed No | 70c | 398$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b69…688abacked Yes | 78c | 385.11$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.8wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…cf49backed Yes | 61c | 342.88$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208.4 | 1,089 | 29.7%323 W · 766 L | +36.6wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce31…19c4backed Yes | 12c | 319.45$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.84 | 165 | 20.6%34 W · 131 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Yes | 12c | 316.77$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.44 | 535 | 25.2%135 W · 400 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 8c | 309.35$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x94a7…16eebacked Yes | 12c | 288.51$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.65 | 32 | 18.8%6 W · 26 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -41%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c4…1513backed Yes | 17c | 270.28$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.18 | 143 | 38.5%55 W · 88 L | +4.3wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fe8…1fd3backed Yes | 16c | 248.01$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.7 | 349 | 18.9%66 W · 283 L | +18.7wins | +0.05per pick | 14cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52fb…85bcbacked Yes | 10c | 228.29$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.49 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8638…2d36backed Yes | 11c | 227.2$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.94 | 129 | 54.3%70 W · 59 L | -7.2wins | -0.06per pick | 60cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 9c | 217.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8781…88c0backed Yes | 9c | 209.57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.82 | 325 | 48.6%158 W · 167 L | +11.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…aba6backed Yes | 40c | 200.64$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.4 | 774 | 28.6%221 W · 553 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 25c | 199.8$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.84 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5368…2d62backed Yes | 13c | 195.95$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.15 | 1,804 | 27.4%494 W · 1,310 L | +27.6wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 12c | 193.27$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.06 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6850…d921backed Yes | 8c | 192.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.18 | 81 | 11.1%9 W · 72 L | -4.5wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b47…c0dabacked Yes | 12c | 184.62$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +3.2wins | +0.12per pick | 25cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1348…7037backed No | 64c | 177.26$113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.23 | 176 | 65.9%116 W · 60 L | +12.7wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85bd…7f75backed No | 41c | 172.14$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.27 | 253 | 62.8%159 W · 94 L | +16.0wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 7c | 169.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x913b…e741backed Yes | 60c | 167.12$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ca…2f70backed Yes | 13c | 156.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 40c | 149.95$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.98 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x574c…8a65backed Yes | 11c | 146.34$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.42 | 29 | 24.1%7 W · 22 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 26c | 140$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.13 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e3c…eba1backed No | 73c | 137.37$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.44 | 134 | 53.7%72 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb61f…976abacked Yes | 76c | 131.73$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.23per pick | 63cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3319…977abacked Yes | 12c | 125$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 264 | 26.9%71 W · 193 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb397…283abacked Yes | 10c | 122.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.72 | 72 | 33.3%24 W · 48 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3abf…b143backed Yes | 28c | 121.74$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.15 | 249 | 32.9%82 W · 167 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xae07…8059backed Yes | 32c | 120.29$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.96 | 435 | 25.3%110 W · 325 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 9c | 117.61$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5c38…f194backed No | 35c | 109.98$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.74 | 2,517 | 47.2%1,188 W · 1,329 L | +52.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cb…015fbacked Yes | 17c | 109.92$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 200 | 27.5%55 W · 145 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fc…938bbacked Yes | 14c | 108$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | +3.7wins | +0.13per pick | 29cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 11c | 104$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfecc…77dabacked Yes | 37c | 100$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 404 | 38.1%154 W · 250 L | +12.4wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb6…c66bbacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 69 | 39.1%27 W · 42 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa06e…eba4backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a03…84afbacked Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.52 | 369 | 30.6%113 W · 256 L | +11.9wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7943…27a1backed Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 320 | 44.7%143 W · 177 L | +9.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cde…476ebacked Yes | 26c | 99.98$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 163 | 36.2%59 W · 104 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b9…7ce7backed Yes | 11c | 98.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -63.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ab8…0397backed Yes | 12c | 94.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c7e…35e7backed Yes | 11c | 90.91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.08per pick | 44cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 39c | 87.44$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.21 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 66c | 86.64$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.05 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdaeb…0d2fbacked Yes | 36c | 84.15$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.93 | 528 | 28%148 W · 380 L | -57.1wins | -0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0044…cb2cbacked No | 33c | 79.52$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.15 | 368 | 19.6%72 W · 296 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1c78…42e6backed No | 27c | 73.78$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.78 | 597 | 42%251 W · 346 L | +96.8wins | +0.16per pick | 26cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x541e…54debacked Yes | 14c | 71.43$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 17cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x094a…1274backed Yes | 19c | 70.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 77 | 28.6%22 W · 55 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ef3…f1c5backed Yes | 16c | 70$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 324 | 44.4%144 W · 180 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa74…3067backed Yes | 67c | 68.85$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.13 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc65a…a48ebacked Yes | 15c | 66.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.03 | 77 | 64.9%50 W · 27 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 69cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c1…1bebbacked Yes | 73c | 60$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.9 | 276 | 48.6%134 W · 142 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes | 54c | 57.82$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.25 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdda…310cbacked Yes | 39c | 48.19$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.98 | 67 | 37.3%25 W · 42 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a73…e6a8backed Yes | 58c | 45.94$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.79 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a9…339ebacked No | 23c | 45$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.7 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.52per pick | 48cpaid | +186%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1b64…72eabacked Yes | 38c | 42.22$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.18per pick | 26cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x79b6…e042backed No | 56c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.8 | 445 | 53.3%237 W · 208 L | -21.2wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf9a…49e3backed Yes | 72c | 38.63$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.65 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d5f…867dbacked No | 50c | 37.74$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.82 | 114 | 49.1%56 W · 58 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d9…2c8cbacked No | 71c | 37.3$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.7 | 576 | 59%340 W · 236 L | -17.2wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6a…c64ebacked Yes | 44c | 36.95$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -6.6wins | -0.23per pick | 61cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 42c | 36.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.44 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef3…ac46backed Yes | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 194 | 49%95 W · 99 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3557…ae87backed No | 53c | 33.91$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.91 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77d5…5a62backed Yes | 35c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5948…56cbbacked No | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 159 | 23.3%37 W · 122 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa9…a6c9backed Yes | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.43 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0cab…7489backed No | 79c | 29.09$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 103 | 71.8%74 W · 29 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 68cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x293a…24f9backed Yes | 40c | 25.09$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b24…f8a1backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 65c | 24.92$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.32 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x9b43…33cebacked No | 78c | 22.08$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 343 | 69.4%238 W · 105 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C on March 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 10°C on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 11°C on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 12°C on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 13°C or higher on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 6°C on March 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 8°C on March 18?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 9°C on March 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.