NBA · resolved market
Bucks vs. Wizards: O/U 231.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd7b3a4e1d005a8e2a8db5a2a3ac032a7e22d0c10b9a8e5d8b293a6ece3f9298b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $33,842
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $34,514
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $33,842 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 50c | 23,706$11,792 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,913.98 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7b…b0acbacked Under | 51c | 9,867$5,039 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,039 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ade…f5b0backed Under | 48c | 5,000$2,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,400 | 1,556 | 52.8%822 W · 734 L | +40.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x865a…f1ecbacked Under | 50c | 4,266$2,133 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,133 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec13…862bbacked Over | 52c | 2,222$1,155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,066.56 | 288 | 50.3%145 W · 143 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09c6…4cb8backed Under | 49c | 2,041$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.5wins | -0.49per pick | 49cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb5…cdb0backed Under | 53c | 1,971$1,039 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,038.63 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -4.2wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e00…eb46backed Under | 51c | 1,755$891 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$890.56 | 363 | 51.2%186 W · 177 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 49c | 1,498$730 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$768.21 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc850…616fbacked Under | 52c | 1,135$590 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$590 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7a30…8abdbacked Under | 53c | 1,064$564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$564 | 507 | 54.2%275 W · 232 L | +13.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8052…1124backed Over | 48c | 520$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$270.4 | 85 | 47.1%40 W · 45 L | -2.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d01…0ab1backed Under | 50c | 500$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 726 | 47.7%346 W · 380 L | +5.8wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3685…0123backed Over | 72c | 400$286 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114 | 25 | 80%20 W · 5 L | +3.5wins | +0.14per pick | 66cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x75e1…3ff3backed Over | 64c | 299.98$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.99 | 88 | 53.4%47 W · 41 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb47e…c602backed Under | 50c | 250$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125 | 617 | 40.7%251 W · 366 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 47c | 219.47$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.15 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 33c | 219.2$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.42 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 48c | 210$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.8 | 786 | 52.4%412 W · 374 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57a8…6933backed Over | 52c | 210$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.8 | 927 | 53.5%496 W · 431 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda21…8646backed Under | 47c | 190$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.3 | 625 | 41.9%262 W · 363 L | -32.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -11%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Over | 51c | 160$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.2 | 608 | 34.4%209 W · 399 L | +8.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 53c | 138$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.86 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb891…969bbacked Under | 51c | 100$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 249 | 46.6%116 W · 133 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49ab…f2a9backed Under | 51c | 99.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.99 | 152 | 47.4%72 W · 80 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ead…16d3backed Over | 52c | 96.25$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.25 | 43 | 53.5%23 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21c2…1943backed Under | 32c | 93.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 201 | 50.7%102 W · 99 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee2f…7677backed Over | 54c | 74.07$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.07 | 29 | 69%20 W · 9 L | +4.2wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5961…56dbbacked Under | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 378 | 48.9%185 W · 193 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27ec…ad73backed Under | 49c | 61.22$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 194 | 51.5%100 W · 94 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x939d…3b3cbacked Over | 49c | 51.02$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.02 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Over | 53c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.5 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa709…8d1dbacked Over | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +4.3wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa46d…59c4backed Over | 53c | 37.83$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.83 | 121 | 49.6%60 W · 61 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Under | 47c | 32.83$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.43 | 2,736 | 46.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L | -67.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50f7…7272backed Over | 49c | 30.61$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.61 | 39 | 69.2%27 W · 12 L | +5.6wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5b74…b58fbacked Over | 50c | 27.68$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.91 | 166 | 69.9%116 W · 50 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ed…a988backed Over | 49c | 26$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.26 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbda3…ef65backed Over | 54c | 19.81$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.11 | 372 | 53.5%199 W · 173 L | +9.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bucks vs. Wizards: O/U 231.5this page
- Bucks vs. WizardsWizards won
- Bucks vs. Wizards: 1H MoneylineBucks won
- Bucks vs. Wizards: 1H O/U 112.5Over won
- Bucks vs. Wizards: O/U 232.5Over won
- Bucks vs. Wizards: O/U 233.5Over won
- Bucks vs. Wizards: O/U 234.5Over won
- Bucks vs. Wizards: O/U 236.5Over won
- Bucks vs. Wizards: O/U 237.5Over won
- Spread: Bucks (-10.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Bucks (-8.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Bucks (-9.5)Wizards won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.