NBA · resolved market
Spread: Bucks (-8.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x614ed535ba4ba04ac57d93b8146fc1616b5a09ac029e94e0f29afa13a747b299
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Wizardsof Bucks, Wizards
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,785
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,779
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,785 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Wizards | 42c | 8,925$3,765 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,160.05 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe405…bf91backed Bucks | 59c | 5,747$3,391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,390.6 | 484 | 48.8%236 W · 248 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x437c…f458backed Bucks | 55c | 3,150$1,731 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,731.09 | 143 | 56.6%81 W · 62 L | +9.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7634…1b96backed Bucks | 59c | 1,229$725 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$725 | 240 | 51.3%123 W · 117 L | -0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Wizards | 43c | 1,017$436 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$580.83 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Wizards | 45c | 936.98$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$515.34 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf09f…8049backed Bucks | 58c | 300$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174 | 666 | 45.9%306 W · 360 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Wizards | 43c | 214.38$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.5 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Bucks | 55c | 200$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 1,197 | 47.5%569 W · 628 L | -32.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5fde…66b2backed Wizards | 48c | 193.04$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.04 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Wizards | 42c | 190.48$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.48 | 660 | 46.8%309 W · 351 L | -16.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa65b…0419backed Bucks | 57c | 175.44$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 147 | 63.3%93 W · 54 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 60cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c85…77c6backed Bucks | 60c | 150$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 701 | 53.5%375 W · 326 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…bfc2backed Bucks | 52c | 127.04$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.06 | 2,435 | 49.8%1,212 W · 1,223 L | +30.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Wizards | 45c | 99.52$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.55 | 608 | 34.4%209 W · 399 L | +8.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba57…184cbacked Bucks | 54c | 98.15$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Wizards | 43c | 96.58$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.06 | 526 | 43%226 W · 300 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca67…c864backed Bucks | 57c | 89.84$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.21 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d85…2560backed Wizards | 46c | 69.98$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.79 | 244 | 54.1%132 W · 112 L | +9.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x897d…90c9backed Bucks | 59c | 68.13$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 165 | 59.4%98 W · 67 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7795…1db8backed Bucks | 60c | 66.83$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 199 | 57.8%115 W · 84 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc695…0371backed Bucks | 53c | 66$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.98 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d85…4c7abacked Bucks | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 52 | 51.9%27 W · 25 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4df3…788fbacked Bucks | 55c | 52$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 6,213 | 50.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L | +53.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9714…3014backed Bucks | 56c | 50.16$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.09 | 120 | 54.2%65 W · 55 L | -9.3wins | -0.08per pick | 62cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x19bc…7d78backed Wizards | 44c | 45.66$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.57 | 121 | 56.2%68 W · 53 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b23…bbb5backed Wizards | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 148 | 41.9%62 W · 86 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Wizards | 43c | 39.57$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.55 | 1,475 | 51.3%756 W · 719 L | +35.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7848…5f80backed Bucks | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 52 | 53.8%28 W · 24 L | -4.5wins | -0.09per pick | 62cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x19a7…3ec1backed Bucks | 57c | 35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.95 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | -5.5wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f1…6349backed Bucks | 60c | 33.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 173 | 50.9%88 W · 85 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd87b…946dbacked Wizards | 42c | 28.57$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.57 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Bucks (-8.5)this page
- Bucks vs. WizardsWizards won
- Bucks vs. Wizards: 1H MoneylineBucks won
- Bucks vs. Wizards: 1H O/U 112.5Over won
- Bucks vs. Wizards: O/U 231.5Over won
- Bucks vs. Wizards: O/U 232.5Over won
- Bucks vs. Wizards: O/U 233.5Over won
- Bucks vs. Wizards: O/U 234.5Over won
- Bucks vs. Wizards: O/U 236.5Over won
- Bucks vs. Wizards: O/U 237.5Over won
- Spread: Bucks (-10.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Bucks (-9.5)Wizards won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.