NBA · resolved market
Spread: Bucks (-10.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1aecfa2038a12f2f2162b3f0c8d8845ae42d402a6c6a441d2b062f5d523a82a6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Wizardsof Bucks, Wizards
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $116,541
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $116,881
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $116,541 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x060e…2384backed Bucks | 47c | 75,000$35,271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35,270.72 | 80 | 37.5%30 W · 50 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Wizards | 53c | 65,667$34,747 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30,920 | 267 | 53.2%142 W · 125 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe405…bf91backed Bucks | 51c | 33,637$17,058 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17,058.22 | 484 | 48.8%236 W · 248 L | -5.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc660…bd28backed Wizards | 49c | 20,200$9,898 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,302 | 593 | 47%279 W · 314 L | -7.3wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Wizards | 52c | 8,037$4,202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,834.82 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Wizards | 50c | 4,500$2,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,250 | 662 | 50.8%336 W · 326 L | +15.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ae…7b92backed Wizards | 50c | 3,000$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,500 | 181 | 42%76 W · 105 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb9fc…da76backed Wizards | 50c | 2,500$1,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,250 | 851 | 47.5%404 W · 447 L | -7.6wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Wizards | 52c | 1,972$1,035 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$936.87 | 5,053 | 50.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L | +110.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…9498backed Bucks | 46c | 1,904$870 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$869.65 | 145 | 49%71 W · 74 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Wizards | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490 | 2,796 | 50.3%1,405 W · 1,391 L | +27.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Wizards | 54c | 937$506 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$431.02 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x306a…0d29backed Bucks | 49c | 900$441 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$441 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…34a8backed Wizards | 51c | 885.94$452 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$434.11 | 483 | 47.2%228 W · 255 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Wizards | 53c | 792$420 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$372.24 | 1,451 | 49.7%721 W · 730 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x53ab…65aabacked Wizards | 49c | 555$272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.05 | 77 | 41.6%32 W · 45 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb7b3…9573backed Wizards | 53c | 500$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235 | 736 | 49.9%367 W · 369 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x502b…a1d5backed Wizards | 49c | 500$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255 | 250 | 39.6%99 W · 151 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Bucks | 45c | 447$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.15 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb390…642bbacked Bucks | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1,661 | 50.3%836 W · 825 L | -14.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4403…4252backed Wizards | 51c | 400$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +4.1wins | +0.10per pick | 53cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbb…acb2backed Wizards | 54c | 297$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.62 | 890 | 50.4%449 W · 441 L | +4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ed4…4547backed Wizards | 52c | 244.84$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.52 | 193 | 51.8%100 W · 93 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Bucks | 51c | 215.98$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.17 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9738backed Bucks | 55c | 200$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 958 | 48.7%467 W · 491 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c0b…7aa5backed Wizards | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 488 | 45.3%221 W · 267 L | +18.9wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64db…325bbacked Bucks | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,259 | 48.7%613 W · 646 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Wizards | 54c | 200$108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Wizards | 55c | 199.99$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 658 | 55.6%366 W · 292 L | +27.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb080…5eddbacked Bucks | 47c | 150.94$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.94 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | -7.5wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x01a1…88f3backed Wizards | 50c | 138$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 58 | 58.6%34 W · 24 L | +5.0wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x83a3…6292backed Wizards | 56c | 119.64$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.64 | 818 | 45.7%374 W · 444 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8f…a3dcbacked Wizards | 53c | 103.77$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.77 | 59 | 49.2%29 W · 30 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Wizards | 54c | 100.36$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.67 | 608 | 34.4%209 W · 399 L | +8.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3846…c908backed Bucks | 48c | 100$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Bucks | 48c | 82.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.84 | 522 | 40%209 W · 313 L | -8.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddf…814cbacked Wizards | 56c | 80.36$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.36 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +67.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4988…5772backed Wizards | 56c | 78.57$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.57 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Bucks | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 1,139 | 48.3%550 W · 589 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Bucks | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 2,091 | 47.8%1,000 W · 1,091 L | -56.6wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Wizards | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | -4.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a1c…c03abacked Bucks | 50c | 49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x08b5…5a6ebacked Bucks | 50c | 49$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 120 | 48.3%58 W · 62 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8861…e19fbacked Bucks | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.31per pick | 48cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Bucks | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 118 | 40.7%48 W · 70 L | -2.6wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7181…1b0abacked Bucks | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 249 | 55%137 W · 112 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c6…5210backed Bucks | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 88 | 51.1%45 W · 43 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x833c…24f4backed Wizards | 56c | 35.71$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.71 | 61 | 62.3%38 W · 23 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fa8…919bbacked Wizards | 56c | 33.93$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e47…a7abbacked Wizards | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.3 | 498 | 52.4%261 W · 237 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Bucks | 47c | 28$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 3,120 | 44.7%1,394 W · 1,726 L | -7.6wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19bc…7d78backed Wizards | 64c | 23.74$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 121 | 56.2%68 W · 53 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | 0%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf30a…3583backed Bucks | 50c | 22$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 142 | 51.4%73 W · 69 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9365…1389backed Wizards | 57c | 21.05$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.05 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -19%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Bucks (-10.5)this page
- Bucks vs. WizardsWizards won
- Bucks vs. Wizards: 1H MoneylineBucks won
- Bucks vs. Wizards: 1H O/U 112.5Over won
- Bucks vs. Wizards: O/U 231.5Over won
- Bucks vs. Wizards: O/U 232.5Over won
- Bucks vs. Wizards: O/U 233.5Over won
- Bucks vs. Wizards: O/U 234.5Over won
- Bucks vs. Wizards: O/U 236.5Over won
- Bucks vs. Wizards: O/U 237.5Over won
- Spread: Bucks (-8.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Bucks (-9.5)Wizards won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.