NBA · resolved market
Bucks vs. Wizards: O/U 233.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9c8ccdc0d368364f86933be9748ff3b31c365ac09f9f85a876ba13f93a7cecc4
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,433
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,656
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,433 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb06d…7c03backed Over | 44c | 7,200$3,168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,032 | 20 | 70%14 W · 6 L | +4.0wins | +0.20per pick | 50cpaid | +42.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb482…e3ecbacked Under | 56c | 7,200$4,032 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,032 | 27 | 66.7%18 W · 9 L | +4.4wins | +0.16per pick | 51cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xec13…862bbacked Over | 47c | 2,778$1,306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,472.28 | 288 | 50.3%145 W · 143 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed Under | 53c | 1,916$1,015 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,015.42 | 356 | 51.1%182 W · 174 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51e1…c98abacked Over | 47c | 1,915$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,014.89 | 66 | 53%35 W · 31 L | +3.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x535b…25a9backed Under | 55c | 1,818$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 125 | 55.2%69 W · 56 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c2…4de7backed Under | 53c | 1,000$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530 | 491 | 42.6%209 W · 282 L | +12.1wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 51c | 966.87$494 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$493.52 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x47d6…9920backed Over | 50c | 770$385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe20a…e469backed Under | 55c | 657.73$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.53 | 2,361 | 48.1%1,136 W · 1,225 L | -41.8wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9519…3b2ebacked Under | 56c | 536.61$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 178 | 56.2%100 W · 78 L | +5.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfad…dae2backed Over | 51c | 525.49$268 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c33…07fdbacked Over | 50c | 516$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01a8…aec0backed Over | 51c | 437.25$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.25 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +89.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x865a…f1ecbacked Over | 52c | 407.69$212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.69 | 33 | 54.5%18 W · 15 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 48c | 407.69$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.69 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8aea…ec91backed Under | 53c | 300$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159 | 53 | 49.1%26 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb390…642bbacked Over | 52c | 192.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.31 | 1,661 | 50.3%836 W · 825 L | -14.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 54c | 148$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.36 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x117c…db06backed Over | 52c | 126.92$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.92 | 180 | 47.2%85 W · 95 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b23…e20fbacked Over | 46c | 108.7$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.7 | 499 | 38.9%194 W · 305 L | -23.4wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ddb…420bbacked Under | 52c | 100$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 294 | 58.5%172 W · 122 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6611…17e7backed Over | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe50b…c2a8backed Under | 49c | 99.98$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.99 | 658 | 55.6%366 W · 292 L | +27.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x059e…4a2ebacked Over | 51c | 77.43$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.94 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd95…52fbbacked Under | 51c | 60.78$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 139 | 38.8%54 W · 85 L | -14.7wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Under | 53c | 53.24$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.13 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xece8…4edbbacked Over | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8380…b151backed Under | 53c | 37.74$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 150 | 56%84 W · 66 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3698…7160backed Over | 49c | 32.73$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.73 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +4.3wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Under | 53c | 28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e4e…dc93backed Over | 46c | 25.76$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.91 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x098a…1ffebacked Over | 49c | 24.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.51per pick | 49cpaid | +104.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Bucks vs. Wizards: O/U 233.5this page
- Bucks vs. WizardsWizards won
- Bucks vs. Wizards: 1H MoneylineBucks won
- Bucks vs. Wizards: 1H O/U 112.5Over won
- Bucks vs. Wizards: O/U 231.5Over won
- Bucks vs. Wizards: O/U 232.5Over won
- Bucks vs. Wizards: O/U 234.5Over won
- Bucks vs. Wizards: O/U 236.5Over won
- Bucks vs. Wizards: O/U 237.5Over won
- Spread: Bucks (-10.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Bucks (-8.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Bucks (-9.5)Wizards won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.