NBA · resolved market
Spread: Bucks (-9.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x65cf4db21e6867d99c4231dec09866a7904d6d4eb6c8c21fef78747b3b6e3572
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Wizardsof Bucks, Wizards
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,900
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $26,970
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,900 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NBA | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x23ed…f088backed Bucks | 49c | 7,000$3,430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,430 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -49%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f3…f6bebacked Wizards | 51c | 7,000$3,570 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,430 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.7wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +83.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Wizards | 48c | 3,547$1,705 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,841.97 | 9,722 | 49.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L | -2.8wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8717…49a8backed Wizards | 48c | 3,311$1,601 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,710.57 | 356 | 51.1%182 W · 174 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd48a…6e90backed Wizards | 49c | 3,062$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,561.62 | 1,910 | 54.3%1,038 W · 872 L | +25.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Bucks | 52c | 3,000$1,560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,560 | 1,820 | 52.1%948 W · 872 L | +48.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc850…616fbacked Bucks | 51c | 2,745$1,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,400 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8198…e96ebacked Bucks | 52c | 2,000$1,040 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,040 | 164 | 46.3%76 W · 88 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9376…c075backed Bucks | 51c | 1,980$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 141 | 56%79 W · 62 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Wizards | 50c | 1,499$750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$749.5 | 3,591 | 50.1%1,798 W · 1,793 L | +21.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd71a…9498backed Bucks | 50c | 1,229$615 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$614.5 | 145 | 49%71 W · 74 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Wizards | 49c | 1,035$507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$527.68 | 2,298 | 51.7%1,188 W · 1,110 L | +65.4wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa5c…be69backed Wizards | 48c | 1,031$496 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$535.41 | 279 | 39.8%111 W · 168 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc2e2…9b0cbacked Bucks | 50c | 1,000$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x306a…0d29backed Bucks | 53c | 1,000$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$530 | 80 | 48.8%39 W · 41 L | -5.0wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Wizards | 48c | 833$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433.16 | 698 | 52%363 W · 335 L | +10.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2630…e941backed Bucks | 54c | 700$378 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$378 | 428 | 45.1%193 W · 235 L | -15.7wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc1…ffeebacked Wizards | 49c | 510.2$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.2 | 369 | 43.4%160 W · 209 L | -6.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Bucks | 53c | 302$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.06 | 522 | 40%209 W · 313 L | -8.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x52b4…34a8backed Wizards | 47c | 302$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.06 | 483 | 47.2%228 W · 255 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8cbb…acb2backed Bucks | 49c | 260.97$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.92 | 890 | 50.4%449 W · 441 L | +4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d48…b9a1backed Bucks | 53c | 240$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.2 | 192 | 54.7%105 W · 87 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Wizards | 50c | 218.65$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.33 | 2,265 | 43.4%982 W · 1,283 L | -26.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Bucks | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 261 | 50.2%131 W · 130 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3ffb…df76backed Bucks | 51c | 196$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.96 | 470 | 48.5%228 W · 242 L | -18.6wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9731…9b35backed Wizards | 48c | 181.6$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.13 | 2,512 | 49.1%1,234 W · 1,278 L | +6.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb052…7adabacked Bucks | 50c | 160$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 290 | 46.9%136 W · 154 L | -9.0wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8044…358ebacked Wizards | 50c | 114.25$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.61 | 549 | 51.9%285 W · 264 L | -2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x827a…8a2bbacked Bucks | 48c | 109.62$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.62 | 220 | 53.6%118 W · 102 L | +5.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0495…c68fbacked Wizards | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 113 | 46%52 W · 61 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf5d3…e601backed Wizards | 48c | 99.73$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.86 | 135 | 50.4%68 W · 67 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1ae4…a127backed Wizards | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 110 | 41.8%46 W · 64 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74fc…f12bbacked Bucks | 53c | 94.34$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ed6…bbabbacked Bucks | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 328 | 53%174 W · 154 L | -2.6wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…3017backed Wizards | 50c | 80$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb966…cac6backed Bucks | 50c | 80$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 253 | 51%129 W · 124 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa26…c10abacked Bucks | 50c | 60$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Bucks | 49c | 55$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.95 | 8,988 | 47.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L | +96.4wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…4ab2backed Wizards | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 127 | 43.3%55 W · 72 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd22f…d0eebacked Bucks | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 408 | 53.7%219 W · 189 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x58c9…8174backed Wizards | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 98 | 51%50 W · 48 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Bucks | 52c | 40$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.8 | 149 | 53%79 W · 70 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ac1…a0f2backed Bucks | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 110 | 51.8%57 W · 53 L | +3.8wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacdb…750fbacked Bucks | 50c | 40$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc60c…3bf9backed Bucks | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 18 | 77.8%14 W · 4 L | +2.9wins | +0.16per pick | 62cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4c9b…e74abacked Wizards | 51c | 33.33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.33 | 218 | 38.1%83 W · 135 L | -9.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc315…391cbacked Bucks | 50c | 30$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x334f…0d32backed Bucks | 53c | 24.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.88 | 136 | 52.2%71 W · 65 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d27…bd5abacked Bucks | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | -3.4wins | -0.08per pick | 60cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x20c7…f12fbacked Bucks | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x976c…7634backed Bucks | 54c | 19.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.17per pick | 51cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Bucks (-9.5)this page
- Bucks vs. WizardsWizards won
- Bucks vs. Wizards: 1H MoneylineBucks won
- Bucks vs. Wizards: 1H O/U 112.5Over won
- Bucks vs. Wizards: O/U 231.5Over won
- Bucks vs. Wizards: O/U 232.5Over won
- Bucks vs. Wizards: O/U 233.5Over won
- Bucks vs. Wizards: O/U 234.5Over won
- Bucks vs. Wizards: O/U 236.5Over won
- Bucks vs. Wizards: O/U 237.5Over won
- Spread: Bucks (-10.5)Wizards won
- Spread: Bucks (-8.5)Wizards won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.