NHL · resolved market
Flyers vs. Islanders
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd7b5d9d6ce3e0e59b33cb5041244782cc339574c250a0845ae1c8154978a052b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Islandersof Flyers, Islanders
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $30,422
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,418
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $30,422 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4a64…4430backed Flyers | 11c | 10,812$1,235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,234.83 | 313 | 34.8%109 W · 204 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x977a…f2cabacked Flyers | 1c | 4,900$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.9 | 1,163 | 2.3%27 W · 1,136 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -87.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc0…f722backed Islanders | 59c | 1,852$1,093 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$759.4 | 54 | 50%27 W · 27 L | -4.9wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Flyers | 5c | 1,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.01 | 1,025 | 40.8%418 W · 607 L | +15.6wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Flyers | 41c | 1,000$410 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410 | 851 | 48.5%413 W · 438 L | -48.2wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x15c9…e725backed Flyers | 32c | 931.52$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$295.55 | 53 | 22.6%12 W · 41 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4103…9b9ebacked Flyers | 35c | 768.07$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.4 | 288 | 42%121 W · 167 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x906b…fd3cbacked Islanders | 59c | 549.01$324 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.19 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76aa…ba27backed Islanders | 43c | 403.91$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.51 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5808…154bbacked Flyers | 42c | 357.14$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c57…5b16backed Islanders | 57c | 318.37$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.9 | 1,475 | 48.3%712 W · 763 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked Islanders | 60c | 300$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 1,039 | 55.2%574 W · 465 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x371a…34b0backed Flyers | 6c | 299.18$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.56 | 745 | 0.7%5 W · 740 L | -13.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -94.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x19b8…9c8ebacked Flyers | 43c | 283.79$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122 | 194 | 38.1%74 W · 120 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945e…2acabacked Islanders | 71c | 281.91$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.75 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4aef…9337backed Flyers | 40c | 259.5$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.8 | 253 | 40.7%103 W · 150 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xccc9…7a15backed Flyers | 28c | 238.15$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.75 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0bb…9702backed Islanders | 60c | 218.33$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.33 | 98 | 61.2%60 W · 38 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe27b…858fbacked Flyers | 41c | 209.74$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.27 | 724 | 44.6%323 W · 401 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9353…cdbebacked Flyers | 41c | 199.99$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 508 | 57.7%293 W · 215 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5dd8…858ebacked Flyers | 6c | 199.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 87 | 20.7%18 W · 69 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Flyers | 21c | 196.83$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.55 | 3,704 | 50.5%1,871 W · 1,833 L | +105.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeea7…c4d0backed Islanders | 60c | 176.17$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.47 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +92%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xce02…f887backed Flyers | 41c | 170.73$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 69 | 56.5%39 W · 30 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39a8…f170backed Islanders | 59c | 169.49$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.49 | 116 | 44%51 W · 65 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc94b…fd9bbacked Flyers | 38c | 165.28$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 380 | 40.5%154 W · 226 L | -16.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c4…a0b3backed Islanders | 76c | 131.58$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.58 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 66cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7524…2149backed Islanders | 59c | 127.12$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.12 | 42 | 45.2%19 W · 23 L | +3.8wins | +0.09per pick | 36cpaid | +17%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9a0e…c4f7backed Flyers | 41c | 121.95$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -3.4wins | -0.12per pick | 50cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ac…c15fbacked Flyers | 42c | 115.6$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.93 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Islanders | 58c | 113.36$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.61 | 928 | 48.5%450 W · 478 L | +17.6wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5fe9…01d6backed Flyers | 42c | 112.55$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.27 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.7wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3b6a…81d6backed Islanders | 59c | 105$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.05 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc647…efa0backed Flyers | 42c | 105$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.1 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4216…dfe8backed Flyers | 44c | 102.01$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90f6…b703backed Islanders | 75c | 100$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -36.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x904b…429cbacked Flyers | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 500 | 49.4%247 W · 253 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…7a92backed Islanders | 60c | 100$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 50cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe486…c7b6backed Flyers | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5036…416bbacked Flyers | 41c | 99.99$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 276 | 43.5%120 W · 156 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22b4…9d74backed Islanders | 59c | 93$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.13 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c72…93c3backed Islanders | 59c | 92.39$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.88 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf128…053dbacked Flyers | 42c | 88.79$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.29 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc02c…5ef2backed Flyers | 42c | 88.33$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.1 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x438e…9704backed Islanders | 73c | 88$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.44 | 170 | 54.7%93 W · 77 L | -5.9wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb64…b33dbacked Islanders | 59c | 85$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.85 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.31per pick | 52cpaid | +48.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2235…d67fbacked Islanders | 60c | 83.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 70 | 62.9%44 W · 26 L | +8.0wins | +0.11per pick | 51cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x11e6…a9c6backed Islanders | 59c | 83.25$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bde…8679backed Islanders | 59c | 82.19$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.7 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8d9…49f1backed Islanders | 59c | 79.53$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.61 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaf64…8133backed Islanders | 59c | 77.88$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.93 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6dd…065abacked Flyers | 42c | 77.83$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.69 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.24per pick | 47cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…67cbbacked Flyers | 42c | 76.48$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe54b…fe04backed Flyers | 42c | 71.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.22 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -2.0wins | -0.33per pick | 49cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ec…dcc8backed Islanders | 75c | 70.92$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…d8acbacked Islanders | 51c | 53.57$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26 | 95 | 53.7%51 W · 44 L | +5.1wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2366…1078backed Flyers | 42c | 47.62$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 459 | 54.2%249 W · 210 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd24e…9441backed Islanders | 60c | 41.72$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.72 | 88 | 63.6%56 W · 32 L | +8.6wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Flyers | 40c | 38.42$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 355 | 45.4%161 W · 194 L | +11.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bd4…8643backed Flyers | 42c | 35.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 182 | 59.9%109 W · 73 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8153…7eb3backed Islanders | 59c | 35.59$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.59 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.34per pick | 49cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfb18…198cbacked Islanders | 59c | 33.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.9 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd53d…084cbacked Flyers | 42c | 28.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 46cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d59…67fabacked Islanders | 59c | 26.97$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.06 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef75…5d78backed Islanders | 66c | 22.6$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.62 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.