Bundesliga · resolved market
Spread: TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd7c1c90391cce9c39a27eaa9ca713e0e80ea060dfa63ec790b5cdbf2b6445850
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- 1. FC Heidenheim 1846of TSG 1899 Hoffenheim, 1. FC Heidenheim 1846
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,732
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,732 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 | 79c | 3,065$2,435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$629.97 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 22c | 3,013$662 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$662.02 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 22c | 1,135$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$246.75 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -4.4wins | -0.14per pick | 29cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 | 79c | 419.04$331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$88 | 341 | 44.6%152 W · 189 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 | 38c | 344.23$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.1 | 191 | 39.8%76 W · 115 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f2b…0f9abacked 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 | 79c | 125.44$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.34 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69e7…7cb7backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 80c | 125$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 117 | 51.3%60 W · 57 L | -9.2wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0f…48fdbacked 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 | 79c | 95$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.65 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…0448backed 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 | 66c | 89.53$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.2 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 | 63c | 79.05$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.25 | 486 | 58.6%285 W · 201 L | +44.5wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +33%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…f9d1backed 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 | 79c | 64$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 58 | 39.7%23 W · 35 L | -6.2wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb552…94a8backed 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 | 79c | 61$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.81 | 101 | 54.5%55 W · 46 L | +4.1wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 46c | 59$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.14 | 97 | 42.3%41 W · 56 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 | 80c | 32.14$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 339 | 38.1%129 W · 210 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked TSG 1899 Hoffenheim | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9856…7014backed 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 | 80c | 20.9$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.18 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x035b…3ca0backed 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 | 79c | 13$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.73 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (-2.5)this page
- 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: O/U 1.5Over won
- 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: O/U 2.5Over won
- 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: O/U 3.5Over won
- 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 (-1.5)TSG 1899 Hoffenheim won
- Spread: 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 (-2.5)TSG 1899 Hoffenheim won
- Spread: TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (-1.5)TSG 1899 Hoffenheim won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.