Bundesliga · resolved market
1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf8acb14641be4427875297ab133a8d13d77a5f8896ca4cb3074ef812622fa525
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,046
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,046 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 39 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x219e…14d9backed Under | 76c | 2,510$1,908 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,907.6 | 134 | 61.9%83 W · 51 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed Over | 24c | 1,250$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$952.5 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -4.4wins | -0.14per pick | 29cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Over | 26c | 961.54$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$711.54 | 227 | 47.1%107 W · 120 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 24c | 938.44$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$713.33 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 67c | 835.75$561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$561.06 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66ad…37febacked Under | 76c | 620$470 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$470 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37c4…359ebacked Under | 10c | 577.1$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.15 | 42 | 73.8%31 W · 11 L | +12.1wins | +0.29per pick | 45cpaid | +73%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 44c | 538.74$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.52 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedf7…5ac3backed Under | 29c | 500$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.25 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +24%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07a0…7a80backed Over | 42c | 364.76$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$211.56 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +79%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4922…34a7backed Under | 29c | 272.9$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.45 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Under | 30c | 266.13$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.84 | 191 | 39.8%76 W · 115 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Over | 25c | 200.33$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.25 | 179 | 30.2%54 W · 125 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc94c…ba65backed Under | 11c | 200$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 12cpaid | +118.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1a4b…f7d2backed Under | 11c | 180$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe46c…8526backed Under | 66c | 178.95$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 67cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc519…348abacked Over | 60c | 104$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.92 | 56 | 44.6%25 W · 31 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12f9…74babacked Over | 72c | 102$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.4 | 94 | 76.6%72 W · 22 L | +16.8wins | +0.18per pick | 59cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xff79…a52abacked Over | 25c | 100$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 105 | 52.4%55 W · 50 L | +4.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x363e…ae45backed Under | 28c | 92$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.76 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -3.5wins | -0.29per pick | 38cpaid | -89.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xa639…f5e8backed Over | 26c | 76.92$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.92 | 147 | 58.5%86 W · 61 L | +15.9wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Under | 20c | 72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 97 | 42.3%41 W · 56 L | -5.7wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x216b…fe46backed Over | 48c | 69.19$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.7 | 79 | 62%49 W · 30 L | +10.4wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +23.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x86e2…2157backed Over | 72c | 65.68$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.39 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -28%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 24c | 63.15$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.99 | 339 | 38.1%129 W · 210 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over | 43c | 60$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.2 | 119 | 55.5%66 W · 53 L | +6.8wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8745…4658backed Over | 65c | 46.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed Over | 52c | 39$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.72 | 74 | 63.5%47 W · 27 L | +6.6wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Over | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 75c | 26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.5 | 222 | 45.9%102 W · 120 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c93…0fb8backed Under | 75c | 24.57$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.43 | 66 | 59.1%39 W · 27 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ab4…a81bbacked Over | 79c | 24.41$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.13 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.17per pick | 38cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4861…4fcabacked Under | 51c | 24.19$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 38 | 57.9%22 W · 16 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f77…f9a7backed Over | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Over | 71c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 90 | 52.2%47 W · 43 L | +6.2wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +59.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfece…8b97backed Over | 79c | 15.02$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.1 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd0f…48fdbacked Under | 76c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf57…ecc4backed Under | 75c | 14.57$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.93 | 96 | 58.3%56 W · 40 L | +3.7wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Over | 78c | 12.88$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.77 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +2.8wins | +0.32per pick | 57cpaid | +57%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: O/U 4.5this page
- 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: O/U 1.5Over won
- 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: O/U 2.5Over won
- 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: O/U 3.5Over won
- Spread: 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 (-1.5)TSG 1899 Hoffenheim won
- Spread: 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 (-2.5)TSG 1899 Hoffenheim won
- Spread: TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (-1.5)TSG 1899 Hoffenheim won
- Spread: TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (-2.5)1. FC Heidenheim 1846 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.