Bundesliga · resolved market
1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x205d3f42bda7426989d37975003dc16dea5c69660439d7b8f0adde3894db64b5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,038
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,038 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 41 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xce2b…08fabacked Yes | 58c | 603.45$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.45 | 380 | 55.8%212 W · 168 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed No | 38c | 496.6$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.99 | 387 | 48.3%187 W · 200 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f22…2935backed No | 47c | 425.53$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c86…15c0backed Yes | 62c | 405.03$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.35 | 176 | 52.3%92 W · 84 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 38c | 402.82$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.14 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28c4…48e3backed No | 17c | 400$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.6 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc94c…ba65backed No | 15c | 400$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.10per pick | 12cpaid | +118.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 42c | 388.52$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$224.38 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked No | 40c | 338.08$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.22 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x142e…f6e4backed Yes | 62c | 322.58$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.58 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x12f9…74babacked Yes | 79c | 300$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.9 | 94 | 76.6%72 W · 22 L | +16.8wins | +0.18per pick | 59cpaid | +49.4%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed No | 42c | 300$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 333 | 40.8%136 W · 197 L | -14.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xed8f…5aa7backed Yes | 58c | 300$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1a4b…f7d2backed No | 17c | 300$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.2 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Yes | 61c | 173.39$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.62 | 341 | 44.6%152 W · 189 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bbf…f4e6backed Yes | 59c | 170$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.7 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e46…e394backed Yes | 63c | 165.01$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.86 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +3.4wins | +0.20per pick | 62cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x79dc…ca77backed No | 15c | 119.52$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -4.4wins | -0.14per pick | 29cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8165…97b8backed No | 42c | 119.05$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 54cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Yes | 58c | 108.87$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.73 | 191 | 39.8%76 W · 115 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…e4bebacked No | 40c | 100.1$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.23per pick | 45cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 40c | 99.31$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.97 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x170f…095bbacked Yes | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.72 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +2.4wins | +0.24per pick | 36cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8766…0ef8backed Yes | 60c | 66$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.15per pick | 50cpaid | +43%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1346…0448backed No | 48c | 65$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e72…c55fbacked No | 41c | 64.76$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.55 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 41c | 63.14$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.89 | 624 | 52.6%328 W · 296 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3036…15c2backed Yes | 62c | 60$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 82 | 51.2%42 W · 40 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 47cpaid | +14.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1813…4dfebacked Yes | 60c | 58.56$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.35 | 183 | 53%97 W · 86 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d1c…afe2backed Yes | 62c | 56.45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.45 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5a1…0544backed Yes | 59c | 42.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.48 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69e7…7cb7backed No | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 117 | 51.3%60 W · 57 L | -9.2wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x252f…4f62backed No | 40c | 32.83$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -5.5wins | -0.12per pick | 42cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba0…e885backed Yes | 62c | 30.64$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.64 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.9wins | -0.17per pick | 46cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4683…683fbacked Yes | 62c | 25$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.5 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.13per pick | 56cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x94d4…a896backed No | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f9f…4b15backed Yes | 62c | 24.19$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.19 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 60cpaid | +21.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee45…e055backed Yes | 62c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.6 | 49 | 59.2%29 W · 20 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x079a…b899backed Yes | 62c | 19.35$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.9wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +60.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9856…7014backed Yes | 61c | 18.7$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.29 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb67d…5d2dbacked Yes | 59c | 18.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.64 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: O/U 1.5Over won
- 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: O/U 2.5Over won
- 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: O/U 3.5Over won
- 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: O/U 4.5Over won
- Spread: 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 (-1.5)TSG 1899 Hoffenheim won
- Spread: 1. FC Heidenheim 1846 (-2.5)TSG 1899 Hoffenheim won
- Spread: TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (-1.5)TSG 1899 Hoffenheim won
- Spread: TSG 1899 Hoffenheim (-2.5)1. FC Heidenheim 1846 won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.