TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: O/U 3.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$68,273

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $68,273 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x72b4…7d67backed Under56c9,507$5,324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,323.994938.8%19 W · 30 L-4.7wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-8.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed Under56c8,964$5,003 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,003.3675142.5%319 W · 432 L-26.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over44c6,000$2,617 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,382.4833244.6%148 W · 184 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8873…09fcbacked Over59c4,107$2,438 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,669.381241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.6wins-0.14per pick55cpaid-29.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4270…e461backed Over44c4,031$1,774 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,257.21650%3 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+16.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf19d…276fbacked Over45c3,869$1,741 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,127.953452.9%18 W · 16 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+10%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x175e…49b4backed Over45c3,318$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,817.931100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+121.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under54c2,973$1,597 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,597.13,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x97e0…8194backed Over44c2,000$870 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,129.9911644.8%52 W · 64 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid+5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf5a7…63e7backed Over44c1,835$807 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,027.5922747.1%107 W · 120 L+11.6wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+15.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over44c1,781$782 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$999.1334144.6%152 W · 189 L-8.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Under41c1,750$722 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$722.341,01344.5%451 W · 562 L-8.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8c4…7385backed Under56c1,250$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$699.9915742%66 W · 91 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+0.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed Under44c863.12$378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$377.5319139.8%76 W · 115 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-29.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under50c552.09$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276.41,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x79dc…ca77backed Under27c551.29$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.773215.6%5 W · 27 L-4.4wins-0.14per pick29cpaid-52.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9cb4…8285backed Over74c540$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.455058.7%323 W · 227 L+23.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+4.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x37c4…359ebacked Over62c368.14$229 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.244273.8%31 W · 11 L+12.1wins+0.29per pick45cpaid+73%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Over43c300$129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17135856.4%202 W · 156 L+19.9wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+10.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfece…8b97backed Over32c244.4$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.332536%9 W · 16 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick31cpaid+18.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe550…4ebbbacked Over45c222.22$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.2212635.7%45 W · 81 L+5.4wins+0.04per pick31cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x256b…cd5dbacked Under56c222$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.324337.2%16 W · 27 L-5.6wins-0.13per pick50cpaid-27.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked Under25c217.75$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.8449143.2%212 W · 279 L-1.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid+22.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xff79…a52abacked Over45c200$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11010552.4%55 W · 50 L+4.7wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+16.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5df4…4eacbacked Over43c174.65$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.651050%5 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick51cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x216b…fe46backed Over46c165.01$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.697962%49 W · 30 L+10.4wins+0.13per pick49cpaid+23.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xcbda…f88abacked Over44c164$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.841100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+127.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0339…1394backed Over45c160$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.7wins-0.34per pick46cpaid-72.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc36c…f8b3backed Over44c148$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.881100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+127.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1677…1126backed Over42c143$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.9414254.2%77 W · 65 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbf57…ecc4backed Under57c142.94$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.419658.3%56 W · 40 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Over44c117.18$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.6222047.3%104 W · 116 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa710…f1ccbacked Over44c113.64$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.6417930.2%54 W · 125 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-1.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Over44c113.63$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.6337344.5%166 W · 207 L-15.1wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-17.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1346…0448backed Under58c113$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.287550.7%38 W · 37 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed Under37c111$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.019742.3%41 W · 56 L-5.7wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-20.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4713…4d21backed Over68c109.29$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.223644.4%16 W · 20 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2c93…0fb8backed Under57c101.58$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.816659.1%39 W · 27 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+8.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x63c5…1ecbbacked Under55c100$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$556541.5%27 W · 38 L-4.5wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-12%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6bb8…a6fabacked Under67c100$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$677458.1%43 W · 31 L-5.5wins-0.07per pick65cpaid-13.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xc519…348abacked Under32c93$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.125644.6%25 W · 31 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-13.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9c0…7fc1backed Over41c80$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.411955.5%66 W · 53 L+6.8wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+6.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xffe5…fe2ebacked Under57c74$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.1810%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x50e9…5efebacked Over44c70$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.412843%55 W · 73 L-9.9wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-18.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x1c77…8f06backed Under58c68.97$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402454.2%13 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick60cpaid-10%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa639…f5e8backed Over44c68.18$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.1814758.5%86 W · 61 L+15.9wins+0.11per pick48cpaid+30.6%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed Under55c64.49$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.4762452.6%328 W · 296 L-9.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Under25c63$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.7222245.9%102 W · 120 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-1.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x49f8…8be9backed Under57c56$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd60c…2b06backed Over40c54.36$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.6216056.9%91 W · 69 L+13.3wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+22.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x80d8…b703backed Under65c53.13$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.5314642.5%62 W · 84 L-7.6wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-11.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa8a4…78a2backed Over43c52.35$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.85633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick41cpaid-18.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeedf…1483backed Over44c50$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$283852.6%20 W · 18 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+7.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xac5f…eb06backed Over48c49.76$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.11757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcfdc…3a17backed Under57c49$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.9310%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x33a7…e607backed Under56c44.64$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256435.9%23 W · 41 L-7.6wins-0.12per pick48cpaid-22.1%equal weight41-0.09 edge/pick
0xdbf9…7560backed Over45c44.44$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.441936.8%7 W · 12 L-2.8wins-0.15per pick51cpaid-30.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7353…a4f0backed Over46c43.53$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.531030%3 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-17.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d08…2142backed Under58c43.1$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.956936.2%25 W · 44 L-4.6wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-29.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb1f8…e204backed Over45c41.33$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.731100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+122.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeee4…8403backed Under57c40$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.820%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2449…3799backed Over45c39.75$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.86333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick50cpaid-25.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x097b…cc19backed Over44c39.27$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.991100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+127.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8a38…d420backed Over45c38.69$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.281861.1%11 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+12%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x702f…1d50backed Under57c38$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.6610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbfb1…08fbbacked Under57c37.63$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.4510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5d9e…e0e3backed Under44c36.25$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.8819254.7%105 W · 87 L+8.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xca2d…39edbacked Under54c35$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.99838.8%38 W · 60 L-6.8wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-22.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x788c…4a44backed Over43c34.88$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.88366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+42.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a51…b2b6backed Over45c34.74$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.113250%16 W · 16 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4922…34a7backed Over30c34.51$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.073729.7%11 W · 26 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-12.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x244d…cd8fbacked Under57c34$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.38250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-37.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x641f…049abacked Over45c33.39$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.39757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+6.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa684…ca71backed Over45c33.33$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.33728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.6wins-0.23per pick51cpaid-39.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd25c…fe19backed Over45c33.33$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.331145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-3.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c05…639ebacked Over45c33.33$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.33560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+26.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Over35c32$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.816046.9%75 W · 85 L+4.1wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+1.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x08f4…4ceebacked Under57c31.26$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.8210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8afe…8d89backed Over43c30.65$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.471100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+132.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x934c…d02bbacked Under57c29$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.531233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8a11…ea12backed Under57c26.32$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15560%3 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x993a…1e2fbacked Over41c26.27$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.52268.2%15 W · 7 L+5.5wins+0.25per pick43cpaid+60.9%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked Over76c25.31$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.071315.4%2 W · 11 L-1.4wins-0.11per pick26cpaid-64.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa66f…f5a3backed Over42c24$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.9214942.3%63 W · 86 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-6.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x517a…9fc6backed Under57c21$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.9710%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5501…e914backed Under57c20.86$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.82339.1%9 W · 14 L-2.5wins-0.11per pick50cpaid-25.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0056…a7f7backed Under55c20.27$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.157145.1%32 W · 39 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-11.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.