TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

1. FC Heidenheim 1846 vs. TSG 1899 Hoffenheim: O/U 2.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Overof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$127,766

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $127,766 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x72b4…7d67backed Under34c39,209$13,331 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,330.984938.8%19 W · 30 L-4.7wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-8.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3333…15bdbacked Over67c12,106$8,111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,995.111376.9%10 W · 3 L+3.0wins+0.23per pick54cpaid+39.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Over66c7,872$5,195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,676.8134144.6%152 W · 189 L-8.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x90a1…73d6backed Over66c7,714$5,091 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,622.831957.9%11 W · 8 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+13.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1467…4372backed Over66c4,731$3,125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,606.134264.3%27 W · 15 L+3.3wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+16.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under35c3,701$1,289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,288.733,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Over66c3,346$2,208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,137.6338748.3%187 W · 200 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Over66c2,115$1,396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$719.31,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Under33c1,651$549 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$549.3735856.4%202 W · 156 L+19.9wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+10.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x86f4…40d5backed Under33c999.98$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329.996256.5%35 W · 27 L0.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa39a…1246backed Over60c999.98$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$399.998068.8%55 W · 25 L+7.5wins+0.09per pick59cpaid+14.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x219e…14d9backed Over52c960$499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$460.813461.9%83 W · 51 L+4.7wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa578…6702backed Under35c871.03$302 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.7415244.1%67 W · 85 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd9c0…4583backed Over67c835$559 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$275.55560%3 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf5a7…63e7backed Over66c757.58$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.5822747.1%107 W · 120 L+11.6wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+15.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa6d1…62eabacked Under38c695$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.15145.1%23 W · 28 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd092…342abacked Over67c492.54$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.5418759.4%111 W · 76 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Under39c488.52$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.611,30540.8%532 W · 773 L-42.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-21.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x57a4…f0c0backed Over65c461.54$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$161.546448.4%31 W · 33 L-4.4wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-15.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3dcf…4eb4backed Over66c454.55$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.553857.9%22 W · 16 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+14.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5773…ac11backed Over66c400$264 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13631145%140 W · 171 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff79…a52abacked Over65c399.99$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14010552.4%55 W · 50 L+4.7wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+16.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Under48c314.38$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.91,01344.5%451 W · 562 L-8.2wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-20.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa445…6711backed Over65c300$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1054975.5%37 W · 12 L+8.2wins+0.17per pick59cpaid+26.9%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xe704…7558backed Over68c294.12$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.1217855.6%99 W · 79 L+0.4wins0.00per pick55cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Under48c238.64$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.321,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under34c227.49$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.3548146.4%223 W · 258 L+0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0189…cab8backed Over67c220$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.63167.7%21 W · 10 L+1.9wins+0.06per pick62cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed Under43c219.06$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.1919139.8%76 W · 115 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-29.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3dde…2c06backed Over50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1005236.5%19 W · 33 L-4.7wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-22.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Over62c200$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7656547.8%270 W · 295 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8090…42c1backed Over68c183.82$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.823351.5%17 W · 16 L-2.6wins-0.08per pick59cpaid-11.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Over66c181.15$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.4233938.1%129 W · 210 L-16.0wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-24.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed Under34c173.65$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.4575142.5%319 W · 432 L-26.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed Over64c173.04$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.2963645.1%287 W · 349 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb06c…6961backed Over58c172.41$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.413265.6%21 W · 11 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick61cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xefb9…e74fbacked Under34c149.94$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.712441.7%10 W · 14 L-2.5wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-11.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x49ca…5944backed Over67c149.25$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49.259067.8%61 W · 29 L+4.4wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbf57…ecc4backed Over66c147.49$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.159658.3%56 W · 40 L+3.7wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+2.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcfe6…49f8backed Over60c116.67$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46.6722157%126 W · 95 L+10.6wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+6.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x256b…cd5dbacked Under34c110$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.44337.2%16 W · 27 L-5.6wins-0.13per pick50cpaid-27.9%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6619…703ebacked Over58c103.45$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.4518958.2%110 W · 79 L-6.5wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x07a0…7a80backed Over63c103.43$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.273100%3 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+79%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x52aa…e5dabacked Over63c100$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-20.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd347…a708backed Over67c100$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.17per pick49cpaid+31.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1677…1126backed Over64c94$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.8414254.2%77 W · 65 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+7.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x67e6…86edbacked Over66c87.71$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.8512157.9%70 W · 51 L+8.9wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+17.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5501…e914backed Under35c84.57$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.62339.1%9 W · 14 L-2.5wins-0.11per pick50cpaid-25.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1e08…19cabacked Over67c80$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.483571.4%25 W · 10 L+3.5wins+0.10per pick61cpaid+16.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9b89…99e2backed Over66c77.97$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.625850.4%130 W · 128 L+6.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd162…72aabacked Over66c75.86$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.862176.2%16 W · 5 L+2.4wins+0.11per pick65cpaid+15.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8a38…d420backed Over66c75.75$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.761861.1%11 W · 7 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+12%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6008…a80bbacked Over66c75.75$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.7637344.5%166 W · 207 L-15.1wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-17.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed Under36c65.19$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.4762452.6%328 W · 296 L-9.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c93…0fb8backed Over66c64.93$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.086659.1%39 W · 27 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+8.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x421a…51a3backed Over66c63.02$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.43875%6 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.21per pick54cpaid+30.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3f8e…5ad4backed Over67c56$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.482100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.37per pick64cpaid+58%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x200f…7a96backed Under33c55.99$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.481,08350.8%550 W · 533 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8ca8…c044backed Over64c53.28$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.182100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+80.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x50e9…5efebacked Over65c50$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.512843%55 W · 73 L-9.9wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-18.1%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf877…77e1backed Over66c49$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.66977.8%7 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick71cpaid+12.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x86e2…2157backed Over67c47.34$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.62450%2 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-28%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f89…ccf7backed Over66c47$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.982100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x82e7…c61cbacked Over66c45.5$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.52263.6%14 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick67cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca2d…39edbacked Under32c45$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.539838.8%38 W · 60 L-6.8wins-0.07per pick46cpaid-22.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Over67c42.69$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.0922047.3%104 W · 116 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa488…91c3backed Under34c40$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.561855.6%10 W · 8 L+0.7wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeb76…7ffebacked Under36c40$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.367332.9%24 W · 49 L-2.7wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-9.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b34…b202backed Under33c39.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.26331.7%20 W · 43 L-7.6wins-0.12per pick44cpaid-32%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x8a81…a86bbacked Over79c37.91$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.918366.3%55 W · 28 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick68cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x37c4…359ebacked Over51c35.3$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.364273.8%31 W · 11 L+12.1wins+0.29per pick45cpaid+73%equal weight70+0.18 edge/pick
0x19cf…5636backed Under34c33.25$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.31825%2 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.23per pick48cpaid-59.7%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb226…4469backed Over66c31.01$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.642839.3%11 W · 17 L-2.3wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-24.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9544…790dbacked Over65c30.77$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.7711540.9%47 W · 68 L-4.8wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-19.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xba6c…5cb6backed Over66c30.35$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.351450%7 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.12per pick62cpaid-18.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x03f5…3047backed Over67c30.07$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.078863.6%56 W · 32 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3bcd…1a94backed Over67c29.85$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.856058.3%35 W · 25 L+1.8wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4cd9…a643backed Under49c29.05$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.237251.4%37 W · 35 L-0.4wins0.00per pick52cpaid-14.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x72ee…a848backed Over65c25$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.7511556.5%65 W · 50 L+0.4wins0.00per pick56cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x791b…6e13backed Over65c23.08$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.08850%4 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-16.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5142…ee20backed Over64c22.72$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.181450%7 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8490…3243backed Over67c22.42$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.422785.2%23 W · 4 L+4.3wins+0.16per pick69cpaid+24%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x6ca5…3af6backed Over68c22.06$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.061080%8 W · 2 L+2.2wins+0.22per pick58cpaid+74.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x98e9…8dbebacked Over66c20.18$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.883852.6%20 W · 18 L+0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8b1f…4eebbacked Over66c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.88660.5%52 W · 34 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-4.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x047c…44c4backed Over63c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b1f…6500backed Over67c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.621752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-14.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x36cf…d3aebacked Over66c18.18$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.18771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.18per pick54cpaid+15.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0576…6232backed Over65c16.26$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.696241.9%26 W · 36 L-4.0wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-19.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xacbc…f6bfbacked Over67c15.96$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.27580%4 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.23per pick57cpaid+50.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.