TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Texas Rangersof Texas Rangers, San Francisco Giants
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$6,389
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$6,523

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,389 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 22 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb727…2a9dbacked San Francisco Giants58c3,447$1,999 inLost-$1,999.14645.7%21 W · 25 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x224f…514abacked Texas Rangers42c2,000$840 inWon+$1,16045748.6%222 W · 235 L-11.6wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-3.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0eb7…1f17backed San Francisco Giants58c862.07$500 inLost-$50034756.5%196 W · 151 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed San Francisco Giants57c812.28$463 inLost-$4634,27947.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L-83.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Texas Rangers42c440$185 inWon+$255.22,80049.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L+0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9b11…5375backed Texas Rangers42c400.72$168 inWon+$232.421,77749.5%880 W · 897 L+25.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Texas Rangers42c389$163 inWon+$225.628,29547.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L+72.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6fb…ee11backed Texas Rangers42c373$157 inWon+$216.3465549.3%323 W · 332 L+1.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5b8d…bb92backed Texas Rangers42c300$126 inWon+$17458652.7%309 W · 277 L+14.7wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc546…058ebacked Texas Rangers42c251.99$106 inWon+$146.215,12754.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L+232.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed San Francisco Giants58c237.22$137 inLost-$137.4112,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x066f…b576backed Texas Rangers43c200$86 inWon+$1143,83242.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L+0.5wins0.00per pick42cpaid+0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd4cf…0e95backed San Francisco Giants57c200$114 inLost-$11413946.8%65 W · 74 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf7fd…3193backed Texas Rangers76c147.37$112 inWon+$35.37450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-10.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb0b…62cdbacked Texas Rangers43c135$58 inWon+$76.9579543%342 W · 453 L-3.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x402a…624fbacked San Francisco Giants24c91$22 inLost-$21.8422949.8%114 W · 115 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-8.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec98…afcdbacked Texas Rangers42c77.91$33 inWon+$45.1945252.4%237 W · 215 L-4.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8e4…3b32backed Texas Rangers60c72.72$44 inWon+$29.0829350.9%149 W · 144 L-0.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-9.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Texas Rangers43c55.61$24 inWon+$31.711,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc730…c568backed Texas Rangers42c52.79$22 inWon+$30.6235747.6%170 W · 187 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+14.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb0c…8c72backed Texas Rangers42c34.39$14 inWon+$19.951,20653.7%648 W · 558 L+29.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+5.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f29…7a7ebacked San Francisco Giants57c27.38$16 inLost-$15.612,96948.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L-5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid-11.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.