MLB · resolved market
San Francisco Giants vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe3c39e4c9ad751cb598c6c7ed7d718bf839f07e62264c2b331ccdea421a4402c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,273
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,589
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,273 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe8c4…395dbacked Under | 52c | 3,850$2,002 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,848 | 694 | 53.6%372 W · 322 L | +14.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 48c | 2,424$1,163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,163.49 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Over | 38c | 1,955$736 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$735.9 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 67c | 757.91$508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$249.92 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Over | 48c | 525.02$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.01 | 1,075 | 58.3%627 W · 448 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Over | 49c | 288.37$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.67 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 52c | 215$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.43 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Over | 52c | 208.33$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.18 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3992…349cbacked Under | 48c | 208.33$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.33 | 167 | 44.9%75 W · 92 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb4…0060backed Under | 52c | 192.3$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.3 | 165 | 52.7%87 W · 78 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4934…5951backed Under | 52c | 192$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92.16 | 112 | 58%65 W · 47 L | +8.2wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 52c | 188$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.24 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f43…3a74backed Under | 52c | 160$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.8 | 232 | 55.2%128 W · 104 L | +13.2wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +11.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Over | 48c | 158.51$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.08 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed Under | 50c | 155.45$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.72 | 3,453 | 51.2%1,767 W · 1,686 L | +58.1wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…0a45backed Under | 52c | 132$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.36 | 781 | 55.6%434 W · 347 L | +28.9wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Over | 50c | 112$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd0ad…b23ebacked Under | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47 | 1,279 | 51.2%655 W · 624 L | -19.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Under | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 452 | 52.4%237 W · 215 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Over | 49c | 97.16$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.61 | 979 | 44.4%435 W · 544 L | -22.8wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Under | 79c | 85.6$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.03 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Over | 48c | 73.54$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.3 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33a5…3da0backed Under | 52c | 56.44$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.09 | 73 | 49.3%36 W · 37 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Under | 51c | 49.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.17 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6b…8a98backed Under | 52c | 48$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.04 | 476 | 52.9%252 W · 224 L | +17.2wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3da8…be26backed Over | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 223 | 52.5%117 W · 106 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56b4…11adbacked Under | 76c | 37$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.96 | 171 | 48%82 W · 89 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Under | 65c | 22.49$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.82 | 143 | 36.4%52 W · 91 L | -9.9wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7dae…7199backed Over | 49c | 21.49$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 131 | 51.1%67 W · 64 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Francisco Giants vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5this page
- San Francisco Giants vs. Texas RangersTexas Rangers won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Texas Rangers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 6.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-3.5)Texas Rangers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants vs. Texas RangersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.