MLB · resolved market
San Francisco Giants vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbd0030bbf5e4ccbae04af591f838f4b9742b279d715310d212da314c3bee57a9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,027
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,749
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,027 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 33 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 39c | 3,069$1,187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,186.67 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f29…7a7ebacked Under | 66c | 1,790$1,183 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$606.81 | 2,969 | 48.4%1,436 W · 1,533 L | -5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Under | 77c | 1,588$1,223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.24 | 8,470 | 52.6%4,459 W · 4,011 L | +510.0wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Over | 14c | 1,032$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.68 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 62c | 986.34$610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.33 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d9e…e0e3backed Over | 38c | 974.58$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$370.34 | 1,075 | 58.3%627 W · 448 L | -21.3wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 36c | 446.68$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.2 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa54d…deb8backed Under | 55c | 436.36$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.36 | 299 | 50.5%151 W · 148 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Under | 62c | 300$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114 | 8,295 | 47.8%3,966 W · 4,329 L | +72.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdfee…0608backed Over | 39c | 274.91$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.99 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec98…afcdbacked Under | 62c | 203.44$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.31 | 452 | 52.4%237 W · 215 L | -4.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Over | 37c | 203.24$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.2 | 3,832 | 42.2%1,619 W · 2,213 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d91…3578backed Under | 63c | 176.19$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.19 | 140 | 64.3%90 W · 50 L | +11.4wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +15%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 36c | 167.87$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.38 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x789c…0d10backed Over | 37c | 131.52$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.46 | 287 | 49.5%142 W · 145 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92f3…b21cbacked Under | 61c | 117.33$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.81 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | -5.9wins | -0.13per pick | 64cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x402a…624fbacked Under | 62c | 98.56$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.48 | 229 | 49.8%114 W · 115 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8e4…3b32backed Under | 62c | 96.86$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.81 | 293 | 50.9%149 W · 144 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61f6…e497backed Under | 66c | 84.7$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.67 | 1,879 | 40.6%763 W · 1,116 L | -39.9wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca9…424abacked Under | 62c | 64.96$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.7 | 799 | 55.9%447 W · 352 L | +21.7wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c6…7b39backed Over | 37c | 57.44$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.25 | 232 | 40.9%95 W · 137 L | -9.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56b4…11adbacked Under | 79c | 57$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.97 | 171 | 48%82 W · 89 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1b0f…b7aebacked Over | 31c | 47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.57 | 526 | 38.4%202 W · 324 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9991…b2cebacked Over | 43c | 46.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.02 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -2.8wins | -0.12per pick | 43cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Over | 38c | 44.88$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.07 | 564 | 35.1%198 W · 366 L | -21.3wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Under | 62c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 707 | 37.6%266 W · 441 L | +24.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Under | 63c | 30$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.12 | 143 | 36.4%52 W · 91 L | -9.9wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5974…5c32backed Under | 70c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.5 | 59 | 59.3%35 W · 24 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5550…4e4fbacked Under | 64c | 23$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.28 | 64 | 59.4%38 W · 26 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3da8…be26backed Under | 62c | 23$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 223 | 52.5%117 W · 106 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 62c | 21.93$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.31 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3555…208ebacked Under | 79c | 18.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.99 | 136 | 66.2%90 W · 46 L | +10.4wins | +0.08per pick | 59cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Under | 62c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.84 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 10 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Francisco Giants vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 9.5this page
- San Francisco Giants vs. Texas RangersTexas Rangers won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Texas Rangers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 6.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 7.5Under won
- San Francisco Giants vs. Texas Rangers: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: San Francisco Giants (-1.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-1.5)Texas Rangers won
- Spread: Texas Rangers (-3.5)Texas Rangers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Francisco Giants vs. Texas RangersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.