TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Mls · resolved market

San Jose Earthquakes vs. Los Angeles Galaxy: O/U 4.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$21,800
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$22,466

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $21,800 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Mls
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfe78…0319backed Over11c9,311$1,007 inLost-$1,007.4899340.1%398 W · 595 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Over6c3,219$190 inLost-$189.551,88036.6%688 W · 1,192 L-7.3wins0.00per pick37cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52d9…fb1abacked Over30c2,172$650 inLost-$650.4371443.7%312 W · 402 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-6.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4ffd…7821backed Under75c800.33$600 inWon+$200.0824046.7%112 W · 128 L-15.4wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-19.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over11c714.09$79 inLost-$78.553,01243.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L-29.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0d2d…7ff5backed Over5c438.06$24 inLost-$24.071,26245.2%571 W · 691 L-28.1wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-21.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0fde…8ab1backed Under65c404.62$263 inWon+$141.62366.7%2 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick67cpaid+7.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x789c…0d10backed Over12c397.58$48 inLost-$47.7112650.8%64 W · 62 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x57cc…0fa7backed Over26c221.01$57 inLost-$57.410628.3%30 W · 76 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick26cpaid-15.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x19d8…965abacked Over7c185$12 inLost-$12.258624.4%21 W · 65 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-16.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c31…5380backed Under74c131.76$97 inWon+$34.261994.7%18 W · 1 L+5.8wins+0.31per pick64cpaid+51.3%equal weight65+0.13 edge/pick
0x1d56…1c7dbacked Over27c111.11$30 inLost-$304323.3%10 W · 33 L-5.6wins-0.13per pick36cpaid-46.3%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9013…e7e0backed Over35c110.74$39 inLost-$38.763748.6%18 W · 19 L+2.6wins+0.07per pick42cpaid+25.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Over26c96.76$25 inLost-$25.161,27048%610 W · 660 L-7.8wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x474a…a275backed Under69c72.92$50 inWon+$22.92862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+34.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c46…dac9backed Over32c71.8$23 inLost-$23.1196756.8%549 W · 418 L+73.1wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Over27c70.52$19 inLost-$19.0473438.1%280 W · 454 L-7.5wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5659…7a6bbacked Over25c66.39$17 inLost-$16.652923.8%126 W · 403 L-25.8wins-0.05per pick29cpaid-18%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x36b3…e421backed Over26c50.58$13 inLost-$13.1510848.1%52 W · 56 L+5.0wins+0.05per pick43cpaid+12.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb6d2…d67bbacked Under66c48.8$32 inWon+$16.5930957%176 W · 133 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8cd…ed53backed Under75c40.39$30 inWon+$10.12979.3%23 W · 6 L+3.0wins+0.10per pick69cpaid+13.3%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf7f0…912cbacked Under74c31.58$23 inWon+$8.2127047%127 W · 143 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Under71c20$14 inWon+$5.935247.7%168 W · 184 L-6.3wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-10.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.