Mls · resolved market
Spread: San Jose Earthquakes (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x09c058cacdcb1fd26c001769c22551ee5ee1d5c7d60dad30ab7be5a47c5a1c9a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Los Angeles Galaxyof San Jose Earthquakes, Los Angeles Galaxy
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Mlsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,235
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,899
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,235 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 17 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Mls is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Mls | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfe78…0319backed San Jose Earthquakes | 9c | 573.58$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.34 | 993 | 40.1%398 W · 595 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f41…8f27backed San Jose Earthquakes | 21c | 511.42$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.72 | 97 | 47.4%46 W · 51 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed San Jose Earthquakes | 28c | 413.06$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.39 | 3,012 | 43.5%1,311 W · 1,701 L | -29.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed San Jose Earthquakes | 25c | 360.7$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.18 | 1,444 | 36.8%532 W · 912 L | -12.0wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57cc…0fa7backed San Jose Earthquakes | 29c | 212$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.48 | 106 | 28.3%30 W · 76 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f0…912cbacked San Jose Earthquakes | 29c | 174.77$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.68 | 270 | 47%127 W · 143 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6c27…54f2backed San Jose Earthquakes | 31c | 161.29$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c31…5380backed Los Angeles Galaxy | 70c | 137.94$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.38 | 19 | 94.7%18 W · 1 L | +5.8wins | +0.31per pick | 64cpaid | +51.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Los Angeles Galaxy | 74c | 127.29$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.09 | 233 | 50.6%118 W · 115 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed San Jose Earthquakes | 30c | 83.3$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 103 | 38.8%40 W · 63 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2613…12bdbacked San Jose Earthquakes | 26c | 73.46$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -4.9wins | -0.26per pick | 36cpaid | -77.6%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Los Angeles Galaxy | 72c | 57.09$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.09 | 1,301 | 51.2%666 W · 635 L | -19.6wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked San Jose Earthquakes | 26c | 55$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 355 | 50.4%179 W · 176 L | +9.0wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed San Jose Earthquakes | 26c | 54.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 734 | 38.1%280 W · 454 L | -7.5wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2077…8161backed Los Angeles Galaxy | 71c | 41.4$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.11 | 46 | 60.9%28 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa402…d14bbacked Los Angeles Galaxy | 70c | 30.87$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.26 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +2.4wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8cd…ed53backed Los Angeles Galaxy | 74c | 17.38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.52 | 29 | 79.3%23 W · 6 L | +3.0wins | +0.10per pick | 69cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Mls and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 15 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: San Jose Earthquakes (-1.5)this page
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. Los Angeles Galaxy: 1st Half O/U 0.5Over won
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. Los Angeles Galaxy: 1st Half O/U 1.5Under won
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. Los Angeles Galaxy: 1st Half O/U 2.5Under won
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. Los Angeles Galaxy: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. Los Angeles Galaxy: O/U 0.5Over won
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. Los Angeles Galaxy: O/U 1.5Over won
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. Los Angeles Galaxy: O/U 2.5Under won
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. Los Angeles Galaxy: O/U 3.5Under won
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. Los Angeles Galaxy: O/U 4.5Under won
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. Los Angeles Galaxy: O/U 5.5Under won
- San Jose Earthquakes vs. Los Angeles Galaxy: San Jose Earthquakes O/U 2.5Under won
- Spread: Los Angeles Galaxy (-1.5)San Jose Earthquakes won
- Spread: Los Angeles Galaxy (-2.5)San Jose Earthquakes won
- Spread: San Jose Earthquakes (-2.5)Los Angeles Galaxy won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.