MLB · resolved market
Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd801c20726caebe738d88b96538da28d493c0bf4335ab7059c945682a5a4485c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- San Diego Padresof San Diego Padres, Arizona Diamondbacks
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,948
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,068
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,948 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked San Diego Padres | 53c | 6,210$3,276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,933.82 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 48c | 5,579$2,671 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,670.52 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed San Diego Padres | 43c | 1,156$501 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$655.35 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed San Diego Padres | 23c | 1,120$259 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$861.01 | 199 | 34.2%68 W · 131 L | -9.1wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 60c | 762.14$457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.28 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd3df…82fabacked San Diego Padres | 17c | 578.95$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.18 | 488 | 50.2%245 W · 243 L | +5.9wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed San Diego Padres | 40c | 479.65$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.79 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 59c | 286.57$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.08 | 1,874 | 52%975 W · 899 L | +51.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 49c | 273.57$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.59 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x904e…0becbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 49c | 242.25$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.09 | 515 | 55%283 W · 232 L | +6.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0570…5200backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 49c | 224.49$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.23 | 91 | 52.7%48 W · 43 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 48c | 197.71$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.9 | 2,588 | 61.5%1,591 W · 997 L | +72.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 49c | 196.08$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.08 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09ad…819ebacked San Diego Padres | 51c | 190.31$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.25 | 61 | 55.7%34 W · 27 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 64c | 163.93$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.92 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c2…b14dbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 49c | 108.99$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.37 | 1,149 | 48.9%562 W · 587 L | -6.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed San Diego Padres | 72c | 102$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.56 | 9,819 | 46.4%4,557 W · 5,262 L | +39.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0157…340fbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 48c | 98.84$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.44 | 30 | 46.7%14 W · 16 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x70fc…ab12backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 56c | 88.49$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.37 | 1,374 | 54.2%745 W · 629 L | +16.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 58c | 81.59$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.17 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 71c | 78.85$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.21 | 5,149 | 54.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L | +231.2wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed San Diego Padres | 16c | 75.97$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.81 | 781 | 46.4%362 W · 419 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05d3…c06abacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 55c | 61.92$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.06 | 459 | 52.9%243 W · 216 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34de…8e6bbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 76c | 61.64$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.71 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed San Diego Padres | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Arizona Diamondbacks | 79c | 49.66$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.38 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf689…3e3fbacked San Diego Padres | 50c | 49.64$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.04 | 98 | 41.8%41 W · 57 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed San Diego Padres | 40c | 49.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.64 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed San Diego Padres | 27c | 41.92$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.57 | 1,928 | 17.2%331 W · 1,597 L | -320.9wins | -0.17per pick | 34cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 841 | 22.7%191 W · 650 L | -81.4wins | -0.10per pick | 32cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7fa9…8b89backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 60c | 39.67$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 49cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46fb…2b75backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 59c | 39.45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.27 | 41 | 46.3%19 W · 22 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 59c | 39.44$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.27 | 5,471 | 50.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2494…17b3backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 59c | 33.06$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.51 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 47cpaid | -14%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x65e6…293ebacked San Diego Padres | 40c | 32.93$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.76 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 41cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94d1…0501backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 54c | 26.43$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…67a8backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 62c | 25.13$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.58 | 970 | 50.7%492 W · 478 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1831…6c99backed San Diego Padres | 78c | 24.78$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.42 | 475 | 89.1%423 W · 52 L | +84.9wins | +0.18per pick | 71cpaid | +25%equal weight | 69+0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked San Diego Padres | 61c | 24.71$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 418 | 47.6%199 W · 219 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3cb…3636backed Arizona Diamondbacks | 49c | 24.08$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 84 | 60.7%51 W · 33 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 58cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)this page
- San Diego Padres vs. Arizona DiamondbacksSan Diego Padres won
- San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 10.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 11.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 12.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 13.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 14.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 15.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 16.5Under won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-3.5)San Diego Padres won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Diego Padres vs. Arizona DiamondbacksNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.