TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 15.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$57,694
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$59,061

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $57,694 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 83 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa974…ef79backed Under51c19,518$9,954 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,563.9522047.7%105 W · 115 L+6.1wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+7.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1341…0853backed Over49c15,000$7,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,3505244.2%23 W · 29 L-4.0wins-0.08per pick52cpaid-8.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2dc1…b33cbacked Under63c12,711$8,003 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,708.1926056.9%148 W · 112 L+4.1wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Over38c6,312$2,387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,386.8711,35652.9%6,002 W · 5,354 L+209.6wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Over37c6,212$2,304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,303.5110,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7760…21f0backed Under48c4,034$1,917 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,117.912,36947.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L-11.6wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Over53c3,897$2,066 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,065.954,55349.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L-9.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Over25c2,347$587 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$587.262,38943.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L-25.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Over49c1,738$847 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$846.7959549.7%296 W · 299 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa048…dd23backed Over53c1,521$806 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$806.263441.2%14 W · 20 L-3.9wins-0.12per pick53cpaid-18.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Over52c1,380$713 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$712.955,40050.5%2,726 W · 2,674 L+17.9wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Over52c1,376$716 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$716.011,90953.5%1,021 W · 888 L+29.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Under75c1,256$939 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$316.861,86552%970 W · 895 L+50.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x22da…2866backed Over52c1,088$566 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$565.751,72550.1%864 W · 861 L-4.5wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6027…4320backed Over49c1,053$516 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$516.0884049.4%415 W · 425 L+8.2wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x09af…9728backed Under48c1,009$484 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$524.7789153.5%477 W · 414 L+24.2wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6340…1bd0backed Over25c1,000$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25011638.8%45 W · 71 L-6.1wins-0.05per pick44cpaid-14.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Under49c1,000$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5102,40748.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L-62.3wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x21b7…c861backed Under47c999.97$470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$529.9814938.3%57 W · 92 L-5.7wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-11.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4483…c565backed Under51c943.18$486 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$457.6725751.8%133 W · 124 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Over23c849.19$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.312,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b7a…bc22backed Under47c777.81$369 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$408.378431%26 W · 58 L-4.0wins-0.05per pick36cpaid-9.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under46c747.11$344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$403.441,91153.1%1,014 W · 897 L+43.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Over49c600$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2946,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3df…82fabacked Under64c581.77$371 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$210.948850.2%245 W · 243 L+5.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf1ad…6979backed Over49c581.64$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28513441%55 W · 79 L-12.2wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-19%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Over38c500$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1909,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x44f0…432cbacked Over49c492.46$241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241.341051.7%212 W · 198 L+14.8wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2348…c246backed Under47c412$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.361346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-9.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84cc…78adbacked Over47c401.75$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$188.82333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick50cpaid-35.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc4db…7e0cbacked Over49c385.93$189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.1129547.1%139 W · 156 L+9.3wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xad88…3c1ebacked Over53c369.28$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.7248354.7%264 W · 219 L+20.8wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9868…e82bbacked Over53c366.72$194 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$194.368256.1%46 W · 36 L+5.1wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+9.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdff8…3c8bbacked Over53c315.84$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.391637.5%6 W · 10 L-2.4wins-0.15per pick52cpaid-31.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Under67c293.69$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.686,11655.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L+344.6wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked Under47c260$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$137.81,76951.6%912 W · 857 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e30…acbfbacked Over51c237.8$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.281,52148.6%739 W · 782 L-5.3wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x09da…56ffbacked Over47c218.48$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.695747.4%27 W · 30 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+0.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8337…9aacbacked Under49c197.84$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.9366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick55cpaid+26.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8f3…e544backed Over52c195$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.41,43550%717 W · 718 L+25.8wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x36b3…e421backed Over51c183.7$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.6840341.4%167 W · 236 L-20.0wins-0.05per pick46cpaid-13.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb2ca…d984backed Over53c183.36$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.1838353.8%206 W · 177 L+16.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+10.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x51f4…3e21backed Over29c174.27$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.0225034.8%87 W · 163 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae81…f04bbacked Under48c159.35$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.8637857.4%217 W · 161 L+1.6wins0.00per pick57cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5821…7c51backed Under70c149.12$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.112,99550.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L-36.0wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba67…4727backed Under46c145$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.375049.7%373 W · 377 L+7.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfd8…eecabacked Over53c122.85$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.1122248.6%108 W · 114 L-4.0wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6276…7f2ebacked Under47c103$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.593951.3%20 W · 19 L-3.5wins-0.09per pick60cpaid-16%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x43d7…1c75backed Under47c100$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5321748.4%105 W · 112 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick50cpaid+0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa23c…ae92backed Over53c91.68$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.5916251.9%84 W · 78 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x681d…4cbfbacked Over53c91.67$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.5947850.4%241 W · 237 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c12…b8f3backed Over54c89.39$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.631233.3%4 W · 8 L-2.5wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-39.4%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Over29c82.36$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.11,92717.2%331 W · 1,596 L-320.3wins-0.17per pick34cpaid-64.3%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0x0f8e…3082backed Over26c82.18$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.3778146.4%362 W · 419 L+11.8wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-1.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x30a5…ae72backed Under55c79.61$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.821942.1%8 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-14.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5028…91c5backed Under47c76.99$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.8119934.2%68 W · 131 L-9.1wins-0.05per pick39cpaid-9.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4259…77c1backed Under69c71.38$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.132,24357.6%1,293 W · 950 L+37.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc546…058ebacked Over46c64.76$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.545,12654.7%2,804 W · 2,322 L+231.6wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8a3d…316cbacked Under47c64$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.9272247.6%344 W · 378 L-12.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-3.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x904e…0becbacked Over40c62.66$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.0651555%283 W · 232 L+6.5wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93ac…2761backed Under69c57.1$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.72,58361.4%1,587 W · 996 L+70.9wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xae45…96b9backed Over51c56.67$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.98351.8%43 W · 40 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe624…2928backed Under47c53$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.0949649.8%247 W · 249 L+11.5wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed Under54c50.76$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.353,20851.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L+146.6wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd5f5…bb11backed Under47c50$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.555953.1%297 W · 262 L+10.5wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x30ab…f338backed Over49c48.51$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.771428.6%4 W · 10 L-3.8wins-0.27per pick56cpaid-49.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x5c5c…e316backed Under50c48.49$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24.4813240.2%53 W · 79 L-3.0wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-0.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x96c1…2c59backed Under48c48.44$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.191,49845.3%678 W · 820 L-8.7wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd4c4…475dbacked Over53c48.21$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.55560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.12per pick48cpaid+40.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f31…2d48backed Over53c44.01$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.322748.1%13 W · 14 L-2.0wins-0.07per pick56cpaid-13.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3a0e…b0babacked Over51c39$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.896240.3%25 W · 37 L-6.1wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-15.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xca2d…39edbacked Under45c36.91$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.323248.7%113 W · 119 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9555…889abacked Over53c32.69$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.331,00157.3%574 W · 427 L+2.3wins0.00per pick57cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x31c8…9487backed Under55c32.38$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.4727053.7%145 W · 125 L+0.4wins0.00per pick54cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5754…cefbbacked Under63c31.04$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.499646.9%45 W · 51 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-14%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9a81…9070backed Over49c30.05$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7327252.9%144 W · 128 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0157…340fbacked Under69c28.55$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.853046.7%14 W · 16 L-2.5wins-0.08per pick55cpaid-16.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x25ed…3e98backed Over53c27.5$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.5825748.2%124 W · 133 L-8.8wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf30a…61fbbacked Under60c25$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1055847.7%266 W · 292 L-11.6wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-12.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0bbd…98f2backed Under48c24.22$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.5918751.3%96 W · 91 L+9.9wins+0.05per pick46cpaid+11.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8c7a…f619backed Under50c23.28$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.643658.3%21 W · 15 L-3.0wins-0.08per pick67cpaid-14.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa9f5…937fbacked Under61c18.64$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.242,54545.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L-73.6wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-14.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x595c…3b03backed Under76c16.76$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.954055%22 W · 18 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick56cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.