MLB · resolved market
San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 16.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc230134108826daa816daf6c5782a1f9d97dfaf99fe18f63f7354c931264557e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,355
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,110
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,355 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 34 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf405…9df2backed Under | 55c | 6,371$3,503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,868.46 | 250 | 66.4%166 W · 84 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8753…85adbacked Over | 45c | 3,520$1,601 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,601.4 | 1,909 | 53.5%1,021 W · 888 L | +29.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 36c | 2,597$930 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$930.46 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6340…1bd0backed Over | 17c | 999.57$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.93 | 116 | 38.8%45 W · 71 L | -6.1wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe92e…535dbacked Under | 74c | 867.72$639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.99 | 14 | 92.9%13 W · 1 L | +3.1wins | +0.22per pick | 71cpaid | +34%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Over | 44c | 500$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 46c | 380$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$174.8 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Over | 28c | 306.18$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.73 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5028…91c5backed Over | 7c | 205.86$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 199 | 34.2%68 W · 131 L | -9.1wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x303a…7c84backed Under | 76c | 170.5$129 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.04 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6932…6878backed Over | 46c | 150$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69 | 268 | 45.9%123 W · 145 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 42c | 148.41$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.76 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9f5…937fbacked Over | 22c | 116.11$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.08 | 2,545 | 45.9%1,168 W · 1,377 L | -73.6wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Over | 45c | 111.11$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 94 | 44.7%42 W · 52 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…6f57backed Over | 46c | 110$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.6 | 112 | 50%56 W · 56 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 75c | 108.35$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.09 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 46c | 102.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.24 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe67…dd7ebacked Over | 47c | 102.48$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.42 | 127 | 42.5%54 W · 73 L | -4.6wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -11%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6276…7f2ebacked Under | 55c | 88.45$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.8 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 60cpaid | -16%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Over | 22c | 79.38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.31 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Over | 44c | 74.17$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.63 | 113 | 46.9%53 W · 60 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Over | 46c | 66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.36 | 722 | 47.6%344 W · 378 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed Over | 45c | 58.24$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.27 | 297 | 52.5%156 W · 141 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e6d…2671backed Under | 54c | 57.48$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.44 | 383 | 52.2%200 W · 183 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0514…def7backed Over | 40c | 48.69$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 58 | 44.8%26 W · 32 L | -4.8wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x50c3…ace1backed Over | 48c | 48.44$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.25 | 866 | 53%459 W · 407 L | +16.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75dc…4f82backed Under | 77c | 44.26$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.38 | 304 | 54.3%165 W · 139 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf5e…95e3backed Under | 77c | 44.26$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.38 | 267 | 52.8%141 W · 126 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7baa…03b7backed Under | 77c | 44.26$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.38 | 198 | 55.1%109 W · 89 L | +6.0wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61d3…189abacked Under | 77c | 44.02$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.12 | 238 | 54.2%129 W · 109 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f5a…669bbacked Under | 79c | 32.59$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x29c4…c3b0backed Over | 47c | 28.43$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c5c…e316backed Under | 54c | 24.31$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.18 | 132 | 40.2%53 W · 79 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x033c…b4afbacked Under | 54c | 21.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.83 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 56cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 16.5this page
- San Diego Padres vs. Arizona DiamondbacksSan Diego Padres won
- San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 10.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 11.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 12.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 13.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 14.5Under won
- San Diego Padres vs. Arizona Diamondbacks: O/U 15.5Under won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: Arizona Diamondbacks (-3.5)San Diego Padres won
- Spread: San Diego Padres (-1.5)San Diego Padres won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: San Diego Padres vs. Arizona DiamondbacksNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.