World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd8163205f3d6716530cc83793af9738a88b53e544a43070ea072cdecd0be9766
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $27,433
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $29,388
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $27,433 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x3290…53cbbacked Yes | 21c | 922.49$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.96 | 90 | 20%18 W · 72 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafde…3e1dbacked Yes | 4c | 796.6$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.55 | 80 | 25%20 W · 60 L | +4.6wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…959bbacked Yes | 8c | 688.97$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.52 | 63 | 33.3%21 W · 42 L | +3.8wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed Yes | 3c | 615$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.41 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xddc3…000bbacked Yes | 8c | 599.98$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd4…f2febacked Yes | 12c | 477.33$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.83 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3721…3abebacked Yes | 8c | 408$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.71 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | +2.0wins | +0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa99…29afbacked Yes | 5c | 386.51$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.97 | 72 | 36.1%26 W · 46 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a81…6cf9backed Yes | 13c | 379.3$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.93 | 23 | 17.4%4 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 4c | 367.58$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 104 | 14.4%15 W · 89 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 5c | 354.1$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.72 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.25per pick | 46cpaid | +37%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 14c | 299.26$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.16 | 50 | 30%15 W · 35 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a5b…7676backed Yes | 24c | 288.25$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.9 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | +296.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 13c | 257.04$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.11 | 218 | 44%96 W · 122 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 4c | 238.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 266 | 32.7%87 W · 179 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb7a…ed18backed Yes | 12c | 216.07$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.49 | 221 | 11.3%25 W · 196 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa8c…9169backed Yes | 44c | 214.78$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.1 | 133 | 57.1%76 W · 57 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 69c | 211.74$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.15 | 167 | 55.1%92 W · 75 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 28c | 196.93$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.53 | 230 | 44.8%103 W · 127 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 64c | 186.76$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.42 | 168 | 34.5%58 W · 110 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa760…2f56backed Yes | 9c | 166.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 72c | 164.64$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.7 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…cd1dbacked Yes | 19c | 151.43$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.04 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf421…efcebacked Yes | 10c | 134.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.46 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 12cpaid | -82.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 16c | 121.12$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 144 | 45.8%66 W · 78 L | -7.3wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed Yes | 9c | 117.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | +3.4wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 18c | 113.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.32 | 145 | 53.8%78 W · 67 L | +6.4wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c15…c2bfbacked Yes | 12c | 109.62$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 22cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed Yes | 11c | 103.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.72 | 75 | 17.3%13 W · 62 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.58 | 148 | 42.6%63 W · 85 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2f…e889backed Yes | 43c | 98.64$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.42 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes | 13c | 98.54$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.56 | 169 | 34.9%59 W · 110 L | +11.4wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d82…9e66backed Yes | 17c | 90.77$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.67 | 33 | 51.5%17 W · 16 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 26c | 87.82$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.45 | 147 | 53.7%79 W · 68 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 32c | 86.61$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.05 | 186 | 38.2%71 W · 115 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 76c | 84.35$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.93 | 159 | 54.1%86 W · 73 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 14c | 82.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 444 | 28.8%128 W · 316 L | -67.6wins | -0.15per pick | 44cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed Yes | 13c | 76.99$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 143 | 51.7%74 W · 69 L | -10.0wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 29c | 63.56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 164 | 50.6%83 W · 81 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4df…e6cfbacked No | 71c | 57.56$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.7 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8db…458dbacked Yes | 49c | 45.76$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.45 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.28per pick | 62cpaid | -43.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd654…2efebacked No | 77c | 45$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.27 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 76c | 44.6$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.61 | 150 | 56.7%85 W · 65 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4e…5ac9backed No | 76c | 39.47$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.47 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa081…e7a0backed No | 69c | 36.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.16per pick | 62cpaid | -32%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 70c | 32.67$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.67 | 168 | 50.6%85 W · 83 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 108 | 64.8%70 W · 38 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29bc…e100backed No | 80c | 27.36$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.52 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.22per pick | 62cpaid | +44%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 69c | 21.8$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 35 | 45.7%16 W · 19 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaebe…2c1dbacked No | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.1 | 41 | 53.7%22 W · 19 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4184…c863backed No | 67c | 16.46$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.42 | 58 | 75.9%44 W · 14 L | +7.8wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.