World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2754bc204c97d8ee2ab94b15d707fe839f83375c152c30ee048b89e40faeb32b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,133
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,429
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,133 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 71 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1387…24a7backed Yes | 5c | 678.61$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.75 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 17c | 439.66$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.53 | 392 | 31.9%125 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa49c…3bb4backed Yes | 20c | 399.34$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 39c | 273.45$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.33 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 5c | 220.82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 64 | 37.5%24 W · 40 L | +3.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 9c | 219.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.46 | 218 | 44%96 W · 122 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3290…53cbbacked Yes | 14c | 213.1$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 90 | 20%18 W · 72 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 28c | 202.93$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.53 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 20c | 198.97$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.27 | 394 | 14%55 W · 339 L | -71.9wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 7c | 186.73$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.07 | 168 | 34.5%58 W · 110 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9bdd…0872backed No | 75c | 174.29$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.29 | 30 | 26.7%8 W · 22 L | -3.4wins | -0.11per pick | 38cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ead…0b4dbacked Yes | 14c | 140.39$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed Yes | 25c | 136$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 61c | 117.89$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.15 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 35c | 112.15$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.74 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 80c | 107.76$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.03 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 65c | 101.29$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.66 | 263 | 55.9%147 W · 116 L | -4.4wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c33…38c9backed Yes | 39c | 100.63$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.03 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddc3…000bbacked No | 66c | 100$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34 | 52 | 34.6%18 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 39c | 99.69$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.65 | 275 | 21.8%60 W · 215 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 34c | 96.54$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf045…c619backed Yes | 31c | 95.58$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 64c | 90.08$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.43 | 463 | 30.2%140 W · 323 L | -20.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 59c | 82.78$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.58 | 108 | 64.8%70 W · 38 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 39c | 79.52$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 122 | 38.5%47 W · 75 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75d3…3f0ebacked No | 60c | 77.86$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.51 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.13per pick | 57cpaid | +27.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed Yes | 18c | 70$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbea5…2cf0backed No | 72c | 69.9$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.57 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -3.3wins | -0.13per pick | 57cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa2…0484backed No | 72c | 69.44$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4556…3f06backed Yes | 28c | 65.77$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +89.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcef6…2adebacked Yes | 32c | 65$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.9 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -2.4wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3a1f…4877backed Yes | 42c | 62.45$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.23 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 18c | 61.26$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.99 | 323 | 54.2%175 W · 148 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 34c | 60$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.2 | 167 | 38.3%64 W · 103 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc8…7b89backed Yes | 29c | 50.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 100 | 30%30 W · 70 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f5…923abacked No | 68c | 46.3$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f4a…f61bbacked Yes | 36c | 45.06$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.02 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe5…4745backed Yes | 27c | 43.92$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.12per pick | 31cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4e…5ac9backed No | 71c | 42.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 47 | 63.8%30 W · 17 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x422a…dc4bbacked No | 68c | 42.11$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.42 | 31 | 58.1%18 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 78c | 42$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.42 | 360 | 55.3%199 W · 161 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9a…587ebacked No | 64c | 41.85$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.22 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.25per pick | 35cpaid | +13%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc540…21f6backed No | 72c | 40.79$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.42 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 59c | 39.95$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.55 | 234 | 59.8%140 W · 94 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27a0…cecdbacked Yes | 38c | 39.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 63c | 38.89$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.56 | 343 | 54.8%188 W · 155 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x944f…83d3backed No | 72c | 37.08$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.26 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3680…f087backed Yes | 40c | 36.24$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x956e…7e32backed Yes | 38c | 35$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf3e4…013dbacked No | 72c | 34.25$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.59 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 49cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 65c | 33.91$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.91 | 181 | 58%105 W · 76 L | +13.2wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 67c | 33.19$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 86 | 72.1%62 W · 24 L | +4.7wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5425…4c65backed No | 76c | 32.31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 69 | 60.9%42 W · 27 L | +3.4wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +22.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 64c | 31.79$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.43 | 146 | 56.2%82 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x658e…2914backed No | 62c | 31.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.74 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +43.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 285 | 58.9%168 W · 117 L | +14.0wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf4b3…c118backed No | 71c | 27.85$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.08 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 62c | 27.76$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.55 | 50 | 66%33 W · 17 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 66c | 27.21$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.17 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 68cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabb7…df91backed No | 65c | 24.7$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.71 | 45 | 55.6%25 W · 20 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 70c | 23.94$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 111 | 61.3%68 W · 43 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa481…f126backed No | 71c | 22.8$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.61 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 71c | 20.03$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.82 | 143 | 51.7%74 W · 69 L | -10.0wins | -0.07per pick | 59cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa200…27b0backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 69c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 65 | 66.2%43 W · 22 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8116…b2a8backed No | 72c | 18.82$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.12per pick | 72cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15b7…4cdebacked No | 71c | 15.02$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.36 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -2.1wins | -0.23per pick | 68cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5a99…7171backed No | 71c | 14.61$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.24 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0b…d571backed No | 75c | 14.61$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.61 | 95 | 58.9%56 W · 39 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x987a…d921backed No | 73c | 14.14$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.89 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 73cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.