World Politics · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 20?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x036ddf588b2564ae4e51113310ed0480d8e4c25cc0bcf6ae10bc332da4729789
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,126
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,424
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,126 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 133 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1387…24a7backed Yes | 6c | 1,190$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.52 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49c…3bb4backed Yes | 38c | 417.41$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 32cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x875e…e6b5backed No | 79c | 400$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.95 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 14c | 291.73$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.95 | 266 | 32.7%87 W · 179 L | +2.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 33c | 272.88$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.01 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -16%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3290…53cbbacked Yes | 37c | 243.97$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 90 | 20%18 W · 72 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 58c | 231.42$134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.71 | 406 | 48.8%198 W · 208 L | +11.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 28c | 224.86$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.5 | 275 | 21.8%60 W · 215 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 70c | 211.81$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.43 | 91 | 60.4%55 W · 36 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 61cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x26e8…4c39backed Yes | 43c | 201.11$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.71 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dc3…3472backed No | 75c | 180.08$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.89 | 120 | 55%66 W · 54 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed No | 71c | 179.98$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.2 | 132 | 68.9%91 W · 41 L | +6.4wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x72ec…ec9bbacked No | 56c | 178.9$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 38c | 173.58$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.83 | 186 | 38.2%71 W · 115 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 62c | 172.92$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.87 | 47 | 53.2%25 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 30c | 162.11$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.53 | 392 | 31.9%125 W · 267 L | +22.5wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | +24%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 67c | 158.4$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.93 | 352 | 58%204 W · 148 L | -4.6wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde8a…a3fcbacked No | 67c | 145.97$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.85 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 32c | 140.92$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -5.9wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 57c | 139.29$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.57 | 218 | 44%96 W · 122 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd222…fe42backed No | 62c | 138.18$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +60.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 58c | 138$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.42 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed Yes | 46c | 136.05$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.58 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 74c | 135$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.74 | 311 | 52.4%163 W · 148 L | -12.4wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 9c | 130.17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 168 | 34.5%58 W · 110 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 9c | 128.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.01 | 230 | 44.8%103 W · 127 L | +11.8wins | +0.05per pick | 40cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb911…d6d0backed Yes | 40c | 123.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 68c | 122.11$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 884 | 48.5%429 W · 455 L | -2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd879…2f44backed Yes | 38c | 103.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.52 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 61c | 102.74$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.15 | 1,318 | 43.9%579 W · 739 L | -26.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -13%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x737c…cdf2backed Yes | 47c | 102.36$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x34c4…9c93backed No | 52c | 100.52$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.97 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +132.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c33…38c9backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc187…efaabacked Yes | 41c | 97.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 54c | 94$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.08 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed Yes | 30c | 93.07$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.61 | 31 | 74.2%23 W · 8 L | +6.1wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 63c | 88.74$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.11 | 394 | 14%55 W · 339 L | -71.9wins | -0.18per pick | 32cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x2797…9bc0backed No | 49c | 82.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.15 | 21 | 66.7%14 W · 7 L | +4.5wins | +0.21per pick | 45cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 36c | 80.66$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.64 | 70 | 30%21 W · 49 L | -4.8wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd4…f2febacked No | 70c | 78.69$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.56 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf045…c619backed Yes | 45c | 77.22$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.82 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x85df…fb48backed Yes | 14c | 77.2$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.81 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | -2.9wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed No | 62c | 72.63$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.48 | 80 | 38.8%31 W · 49 L | +4.2wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 38c | 71.58$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.09 | 463 | 30.2%140 W · 323 L | -20.4wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -19%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb3b4…48b2backed No | 75c | 70.99$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.62 | 148 | 42.6%63 W · 85 L | +3.3wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x558e…ec99backed Yes | 32c | 70.78$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 42c | 70$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.4 | 173 | 45.1%78 W · 95 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70c4…1008backed Yes | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -26%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3680…f087backed Yes | 26c | 67.82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.63 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 74c | 66.45$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.28 | 108 | 64.8%70 W · 38 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe457…5ab3backed No | 65c | 64.58$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.43 | 105 | 42.9%45 W · 60 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1f…4d70backed Yes | 36c | 63.19$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…f053backed No | 45c | 60$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.10per pick | 46cpaid | +18.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 36c | 59.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.43 | 167 | 38.3%64 W · 103 L | +6.0wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x63bc…abc5backed Yes | 53c | 59.83$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x521e…a47bbacked Yes | 41c | 58.39$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.14per pick | 31cpaid | -51.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6508…c045backed Yes | 39c | 58.3$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.74 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2429…02d9backed No | 47c | 56.52$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.97 | 21 | 52.4%11 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 46cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80e1…47a8backed No | 73c | 54.62$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.66 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 29c | 54.6$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.94 | 122 | 38.5%47 W · 75 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcae…1ea8backed Yes | 44c | 54.41$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.81 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.33per pick | 47cpaid | +70.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7328…dbffbacked Yes | 27c | 52.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.06 | 61 | 26.2%16 W · 45 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 21cpaid | +24.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 100 | 30%30 W · 70 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7320…0a3fbacked Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 169 | 34.9%59 W · 110 L | +11.4wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4af9…3144backed Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bb…18d5backed Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50b1…0793backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.11per pick | 62cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8eea…e285backed Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | +3.4wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc743…4cb7backed Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb31a…8817backed Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc0…7bf6backed Yes | 40c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 44cpaid | -21%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x19f4…c772backed Yes | 40c | 49$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.64 | 51 | 31.4%16 W · 35 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 71c | 48.97$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 102 | 43.1%44 W · 58 L | -6.1wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 42c | 48.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.35 | 126 | 40.5%51 W · 75 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6db9…de16backed No | 59c | 47.86$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.44 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 50cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0996…598dbacked No | 54c | 45.68$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.97 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes | 51c | 45.48$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 77 | 41.6%32 W · 45 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3272…3845backed Yes | 39c | 45.3$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.77 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 63c | 44.42$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.43 | 157 | 66.2%104 W · 53 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 68c | 41.93$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.43 | 234 | 59.8%140 W · 94 L | -5.2wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 73c | 41.1$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.1 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 68cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 58c | 41$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.11 | 399 | 52.4%209 W · 190 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa2…0484backed No | 61c | 40.98$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x268e…791ebacked Yes | 41c | 40.66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.67 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf67d…f5c2backed No | 53c | 39$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.33 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +88.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 68c | 38.06$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.31 | 343 | 54.8%188 W · 155 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -12%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 40c | 37.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 69c | 36.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.36 | 65 | 66.2%43 W · 22 L | -3.4wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ea2…cd1dbacked Yes | 46c | 36.16$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.71 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6fe…8caabacked Yes | 41c | 35.95$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.74 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -2.2wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x326c…ef55backed Yes | 44c | 35.23$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82ca…3135backed No | 65c | 35.19$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.36 | 48 | 52.1%25 W · 23 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 58cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 64c | 35$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.65 | 144 | 67.4%97 W · 47 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa453…23a9backed No | 61c | 33.84$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.2 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ead…0b4dbacked No | 62c | 32.26$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 63c | 32.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.82 | 323 | 54.2%175 W · 148 L | +6.2wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…98eabacked Yes | 37c | 32.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 65c | 31.79$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.99 | 146 | 56.2%82 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc55…838fbacked No | 63c | 31.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.75 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 20?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 32°C on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on June 20?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 36°C on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 37°C on June 20?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Paris be 38°C on June 20?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.