TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Paris be 34°C on June 20?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$18,126
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$21,424

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,126 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 133 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1387…24a7backed Yes6c1,190$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.521421.4%3 W · 11 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick15cpaid+13.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49c…3bb4backed Yes38c417.41$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick32cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x875e…e6b5backed No79c400$316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.951936.8%7 W · 12 L+1.3wins+0.07per pick30cpaid-22.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes14c291.73$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.9526632.7%87 W · 179 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes33c272.88$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.016330.2%19 W · 44 L-3.3wins-0.05per pick35cpaid-16%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3290…53cbbacked Yes37c243.97$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$909020%18 W · 72 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-27.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc34f…7d2ebacked No58c231.42$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.7140648.8%198 W · 208 L+11.0wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f21…b376backed Yes28c224.86$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.527521.8%60 W · 215 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x35e6…7a4dbacked No70c211.81$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.439160.4%55 W · 36 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-7.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x26e8…4c39backed Yes43c201.11$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.71250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+39.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6dc3…3472backed No75c180.08$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.8912055%66 W · 54 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-9.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x73d2…f9b7backed No71c179.98$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.213268.9%91 W · 41 L+6.4wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+3.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x72ec…ec9bbacked No56c178.9$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.9250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick60cpaid-10.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes38c173.58$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.8318638.2%71 W · 115 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x13de…fd91backed No62c172.92$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.874753.2%25 W · 22 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes30c162.11$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.5339231.9%125 W · 267 L+22.5wins+0.06per pick26cpaid+24%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No67c158.4$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.9335258%204 W · 148 L-4.6wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-7.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde8a…a3fcbacked No67c145.97$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.854052.5%21 W · 19 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-14.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes32c140.92$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4532639.3%128 W · 198 L-5.9wins-0.02per pick41cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed No57c139.29$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59.5721844%96 W · 122 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd222…fe42backed No62c138.18$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.181100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+60.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7c3…20e0backed No58c138$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.422347.8%11 W · 12 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick54cpaid-23.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x019c…e8d2backed Yes46c136.05$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.583743.2%16 W · 21 L-1.6wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-8.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No74c135$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.7431152.4%163 W · 148 L-12.4wins-0.04per pick56cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes9c130.17$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6116834.5%58 W · 110 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes9c128.33$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.0123044.8%103 W · 127 L+11.8wins+0.05per pick40cpaid-10.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb911…d6d0backed Yes40c123.98$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-35.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No68c122.11$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.688448.5%429 W · 455 L-2.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd879…2f44backed Yes38c103.99$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.5240%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No61c102.74$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.151,31843.9%579 W · 739 L-26.8wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-13%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x737c…cdf2backed Yes47c102.36$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.2450%2 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x34c4…9c93backed No52c100.52$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.972100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.56per pick44cpaid+132.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4c33…38c9backed Yes29c100$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292030%6 W · 14 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick32cpaid+3.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc187…efaabacked Yes41c97.56$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40540%2 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick40cpaid-24.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb0a5…0a36backed No54c94$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.088856.8%50 W · 38 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0947…9e92backed Yes30c93.07$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.613174.2%23 W · 8 L+6.1wins+0.20per pick55cpaid+40.8%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No63c88.74$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.1139414%55 W · 339 L-71.9wins-0.18per pick32cpaid-73.1%equal weight31-0.17 edge/pick
0x2797…9bc0backed No49c82.5$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.152166.7%14 W · 7 L+4.5wins+0.21per pick45cpaid+42.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes36c80.66$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.647030%21 W · 49 L-4.8wins-0.07per pick37cpaid-24.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0bd4…f2febacked No70c78.69$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.561030%3 W · 7 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick25cpaid-29.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf045…c619backed Yes45c77.22$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.821145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85df…fb48backed Yes14c77.2$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.814630.4%14 W · 32 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-35.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x567f…94b9backed No62c72.63$45 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27.488038.8%31 W · 49 L+4.2wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+12.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes38c71.58$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.0946330.2%140 W · 323 L-20.4wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-19%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb3b4…48b2backed No75c70.99$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.6214842.6%63 W · 85 L+3.3wins+0.02per pick40cpaid-8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x558e…ec99backed Yes32c70.78$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.65250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-23%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f30…f8debacked Yes42c70$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.417345.1%78 W · 95 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x70c4…1008backed Yes30c70$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211533.3%5 W · 10 L-1.5wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-26%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3680…f087backed Yes26c67.82$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.6340%0 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xeb54…d452backed No74c66.45$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.2810864.8%70 W · 38 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid+4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe457…5ab3backed No65c64.58$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.4310542.9%45 W · 60 L-4.7wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-20.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5d1f…4d70backed Yes36c63.19$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3e4…f053backed No45c60$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$331656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.7wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+18.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4245…a467backed Yes36c59.99$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.4316738.3%64 W · 103 L+6.0wins+0.04per pick35cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x63bc…abc5backed Yes53c59.83$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.7110%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x521e…a47bbacked Yes41c58.39$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.14per pick31cpaid-51.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6508…c045backed Yes39c58.3$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.741030%3 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick36cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2429…02d9backed No47c56.52$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.972152.4%11 W · 10 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick46cpaid+16.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x80e1…47a8backed No73c54.62$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.663551.4%18 W · 17 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes29c54.6$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.9412238.5%47 W · 75 L+5.2wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+13.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfcae…1ea8backed Yes44c54.41$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.81580%4 W · 1 L+1.6wins+0.33per pick47cpaid+70.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7328…dbffbacked Yes27c52.09$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.066126.2%16 W · 45 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick21cpaid+24.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x397c…ca1bbacked Yes33c50$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.510030%30 W · 70 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick31cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7320…0a3fbacked Yes43c50$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.5757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+11.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb4a0…9d29backed Yes32c50$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.116934.9%59 W · 110 L+11.4wins+0.07per pick28cpaid+7.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4af9…3144backed Yes43c50$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.51050%5 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28bb…18d5backed Yes41c50$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.5250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x50b1…0793backed No60c50$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201573.3%11 W · 4 L+1.7wins+0.11per pick62cpaid+16.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8eea…e285backed Yes49c50$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.53339.4%13 W · 20 L+3.4wins+0.10per pick29cpaid+42.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc743…4cb7backed Yes41c50$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.5540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-25.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb31a…8817backed Yes43c50$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.51250%6 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7fc0…7bf6backed Yes40c50$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201735.3%6 W · 11 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick44cpaid-21%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x19f4…c772backed Yes40c49$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.645131.4%16 W · 35 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick35cpaid-1.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xeaa9…1737backed No71c48.97$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.210243.1%44 W · 58 L-6.1wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-17.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes42c48.29$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.3512640.5%51 W · 75 L-3.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-12.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6db9…de16backed No59c47.86$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.44366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+11.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0996…598dbacked No54c45.68$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.971741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-11.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdfbd…5a6cbacked Yes51c45.48$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$237741.6%32 W · 45 L0.0wins0.00per pick42cpaid-22.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3272…3845backed Yes39c45.3$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.77837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-18.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xedbd…dd60backed No63c44.42$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.4315766.2%104 W · 53 L+0.5wins0.00per pick66cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7df0…0dfebacked No68c41.93$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.4323459.8%140 W · 94 L-5.2wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-6.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x94b1…27cbbacked No73c41.1$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.13262.5%20 W · 12 L-1.8wins-0.06per pick68cpaid-11.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No58c41$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.1139952.4%209 W · 190 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-13.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1aa2…0484backed No61c40.98$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.981233.3%4 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-41.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x268e…791ebacked Yes41c40.66$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.67250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-25.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf67d…f5c2backed No53c39$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.331100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0380…073dbacked No68c38.06$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.3134354.8%188 W · 155 L-1.5wins0.00per pick55cpaid-12%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb49f…1821backed Yes40c37.5$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155149%25 W · 26 L+2.1wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+4.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x62a8…2132backed No69c36.5$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.366566.2%43 W · 22 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick71cpaid-6.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9ea2…cd1dbacked Yes46c36.16$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.713828.9%11 W · 27 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick30cpaid+7.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf6fe…8caabacked Yes41c35.95$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.7440%0 W · 4 L-2.2wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x326c…ef55backed Yes44c35.23$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.5450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x82ca…3135backed No65c35.19$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.364852.1%25 W · 23 L-2.8wins-0.06per pick58cpaid-17.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No64c35$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.6514467.4%97 W · 47 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick66cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa453…23a9backed No61c33.84$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ead…0b4dbacked No62c32.26$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.26250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-19.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No63c32.22$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.8232354.2%175 W · 148 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb50…98eabacked Yes37c32.11$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No65c31.79$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.9914656.2%82 W · 64 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-16.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbc55…838fbacked No63c31.75$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.75955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick60cpaid-7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.