South American Leagues · resolved market
Racing Club vs. CA River Plate: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd837a22d23babfa63498c268e4afa70e1fd22b1162722e8cf12af46a3ef7bf79
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,900
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,633
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,900 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x198f…c419backed Over | 55c | 2,913$1,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,313.15 | 108 | 46.3%50 W · 58 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 41c | 1,914$776 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$776.05 | 1,070 | 47.4%507 W · 563 L | -46.3wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -17.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 51c | 1,451$736 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$736.47 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x610b…b5b2backed Over | 22c | 1,000$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$780 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | +4.0wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +22%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 53c | 573.12$306 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$266.83 | 1,985 | 44.8%890 W · 1,095 L | -44.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b3d…7de0backed Under | 28c | 392.29$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.84 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…e2b8backed Over | 69c | 319.99$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.2 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 53c | 309.61$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.02 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9787…37dfbacked Over | 53c | 186.93$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.86 | 181 | 45.3%82 W · 99 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41bc…e9d2backed Over | 62c | 126.27$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.48 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5d1d…afd2backed Under | 43c | 119.07$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.79 | 650 | 58%377 W · 273 L | +21.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 36c | 114.3$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.15 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 71c | 110.72$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.11 | 769 | 51.5%396 W · 373 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd27d…a84fbacked Under | 43c | 101.55$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.22 | 118 | 56.8%67 W · 51 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2302…d6d2backed Under | 43c | 100.49$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.62 | 477 | 56%267 W · 210 L | +9.9wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb51…082dbacked Under | 43c | 100.49$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.62 | 412 | 56.6%233 W · 179 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6687…b9ddbacked Under | 44c | 93.73$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.03 | 56 | 60.7%34 W · 22 L | +4.6wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 57c | 89.43$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.85 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Under | 60c | 86.24$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.6 | 852 | 20.7%176 W · 676 L | -85.2wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Under | 38c | 81.75$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.07 | 404 | 51.2%207 W · 197 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Under | 44c | 80$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.87 | 571 | 57.8%330 W · 241 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc482…b505backed Under | 23c | 68.67$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 102 | 50%51 W · 51 L | -4.2wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabd5…e713backed Over | 74c | 65.12$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.15 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3982…2befbacked Under | 45c | 63.91$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.72 | 477 | 58.1%277 W · 200 L | +8.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Under | 43c | 63.28$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.19 | 2,388 | 51.8%1,237 W · 1,151 L | -9.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa8…0b19backed Under | 47c | 61.94$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.11 | 44 | 65.9%29 W · 15 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 60cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ff9…bf35backed Under | 32c | 53.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 48cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf46b…c51dbacked Under | 39c | 52.69$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 449 | 59%265 W · 184 L | +22.4wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6d54…81a1backed Over | 49c | 49.46$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.22 | 110 | 36.4%40 W · 70 L | -4.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5258…534ebacked Over | 64c | 48.92$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.61 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 45cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd809…6542backed Under | 47c | 47.81$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.47 | 367 | 57.5%211 W · 156 L | +5.3wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8098…5646backed Under | 43c | 44.9$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.49 | 167 | 59.9%100 W · 67 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97b2…1c44backed Over | 50c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +4.4wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +22%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd6…b378backed Over | 50c | 39.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.89 | 58 | 46.6%27 W · 31 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc338…974ebacked Over | 51c | 38.06$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.65 | 85 | 28.2%24 W · 61 L | -8.3wins | -0.10per pick | 38cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1513…831abacked Under | 38c | 38.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.44 | 104 | 65.4%68 W · 36 L | +6.6wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0fa1…bf73backed Over | 54c | 37$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.02 | 251 | 47.8%120 W · 131 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xade2…8757backed Under | 44c | 35.11$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 159 | 56.6%90 W · 69 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6804…29e2backed Under | 42c | 32.93$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.9 | 193 | 56%108 W · 85 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x80bd…8c66backed Over | 64c | 32.53$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.64 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +54%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7356…04cfbacked Over | 57c | 32.47$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.96 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked Under | 38c | 30.55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 723 | 50.5%365 W · 358 L | -24.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Under | 38c | 28.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf68…ed10backed Over | 73c | 26.95$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.28 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | -1.0wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xefa8…924ebacked Over | 46c | 24.63$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.29 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea77…686ebacked Over | 64c | 22.93$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.26 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 67cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38a5…37a5backed Over | 64c | 22.93$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.26 | 61 | 59%36 W · 25 L | -5.7wins | -0.09per pick | 68cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7abf…8dd3backed Over | 55c | 21.44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.57 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed Over | 64c | 19.57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +2.1wins | +0.14per pick | 59cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb595…5922backed Over | 72c | 19.4$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.41 | 88 | 87.5%77 W · 11 L | +19.9wins | +0.23per pick | 65cpaid | +42%equal weight | 70+0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xc856…f642backed Over | 74c | 15.96$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.15 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 58cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Racing Club vs. CA River Plate: O/U 1.5this page
- Racing Club vs. CA River Plate: O/U 2.5Under won
- Racing Club vs. CA River Plate: O/U 3.5Under won
- Racing Club vs. CA River Plate: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: CA River Plate (-1.5)CA River Plate won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.