Premier League · resolved market
Spread: Hull City AFC (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd8519bec45276a1b4a2eaa05c6dd5baafde3681bdd45cdfb6a0c0bb0210c1723
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Birmingham City FCof Hull City AFC, Birmingham City FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,197
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,672
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,197 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 15 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc699…7961backed Hull City AFC | 19c | 7,314$1,411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,410.89 | 125 | 32.8%41 W · 84 L | +4.7wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Birmingham City FC | 79c | 2,444$1,942 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$502.05 | 6,047 | 45.9%2,776 W · 3,271 L | -21.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1af0…6dd7backed Hull City AFC | 17c | 1,350$229 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.49 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Hull City AFC | 13c | 900.58$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.5 | 827 | 63%521 W · 306 L | +113.2wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +41.9%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x2c1a…42d8backed Hull City AFC | 29c | 833.2$239 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$239.15 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed Hull City AFC | 18c | 470.79$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.74 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Hull City AFC | 14c | 431.58$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.42 | 4,696 | 41.7%1,957 W · 2,739 L | +21.8wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed Birmingham City FC | 69c | 200$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 44 | 36.4%16 W · 28 L | +3.0wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed Birmingham City FC | 76c | 180$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.2 | 518 | 47.3%245 W · 273 L | +11.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9787…37dfbacked Hull City AFC | 19c | 91.21$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 50 | 32%16 W · 34 L | -4.0wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Hull City AFC | 25c | 86.48$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.73 | 515 | 16.1%83 W · 432 L | -49.9wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x46d2…6805backed Birmingham City FC | 77c | 53$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 87 | 57.5%50 W · 37 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked Hull City AFC | 25c | 42.67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 82 | 19.5%16 W · 66 L | -5.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…5f71backed Birmingham City FC | 79c | 31$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 70 | 65.7%46 W · 24 L | +5.9wins | +0.08per pick | 57cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf16…b409backed Hull City AFC | 70c | 16.49$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.54 | 21 | 9.5%2 W · 19 L | -6.0wins | -0.29per pick | 38cpaid | -85.3%equal weight | 36-0.13 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Hull City AFC (-1.5)this page
- Hull City AFC vs. Birmingham City FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Hull City AFC vs. Birmingham City FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Hull City AFC vs. Birmingham City FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Hull City AFC vs. Birmingham City FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Hull City AFC vs. Birmingham City FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Birmingham City FC (-1.5)Hull City AFC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.