Earnings · resolved market
Will Etsy (ETSY) beat quarterly earnings?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd85d55793f1d99b82572825176521527f0c7144b9e9a40d25cd597f0c3ebcce1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Earningsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,257
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,083
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,257 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Earnings is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Earnings | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xffc5…67a5backed No | 30c | 670$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$469 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa14b…05e4backed Yes | 10c | 256.27$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.63 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ba…68fabacked No | 20c | 236$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.92 | 139 | 32.4%45 W · 94 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 70c | 199.99$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 676 | 42.9%290 W · 386 L | -36.2wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x73d2…f9b7backed Yes | 69c | 160$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.4 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -6.1wins | -0.18per pick | 67cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0d59…f7e5backed Yes | 69c | 142$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.98 | 170 | 64.1%109 W · 61 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa68…ba5dbacked Yes | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 149 | 60.4%90 W · 59 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0957…5db6backed Yes | 70c | 125$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.5 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46d6…b6b4backed No | 13c | 120$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.9 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +98.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x073e…8416backed Yes | 70c | 106.52$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.56 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -3.1wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f2…5cbabacked No | 53c | 105$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.79 | 768 | 37.4%287 W · 481 L | +35.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81e4…743ebacked Yes | 70c | 100$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | -5.2wins | -0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 33c | 92$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.8 | 582 | 39%227 W · 355 L | -25.6wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x703c…3827backed No | 24c | 84.88$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.26 | 55 | 49.1%27 W · 28 L | +5.7wins | +0.10per pick | 39cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 28c | 66.89$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.4 | 213 | 41.3%88 W · 125 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5675…f6a6backed No | 31c | 52$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.88 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a20…89d2backed Yes | 69c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e0e…4419backed Yes | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 187 | 51.3%96 W · 91 L | -7.5wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae7a…25eabacked Yes | 70c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 59 | 44.1%26 W · 33 L | -7.0wins | -0.12per pick | 56cpaid | -30%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcb58…ccd0backed Yes | 69c | 50$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.5 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -3.4wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x94a5…4eb8backed No | 36c | 41$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.35 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3901…9761backed No | 30c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a72…a2abbacked No | 30c | 40$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe000…cbb1backed Yes | 55c | 35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.25 | 141 | 71.6%101 W · 40 L | +22.4wins | +0.16per pick | 56cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x018a…9522backed No | 45c | 33$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.15 | 70 | 28.6%20 W · 50 L | -17.5wins | -0.25per pick | 54cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 30-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0x5a4f…f83bbacked Yes | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 20 | 85%17 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 72cpaid | +20.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe8fc…0d3bbacked Yes | 70c | 19.82$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 69 | 40.6%28 W · 41 L | -6.6wins | -0.10per pick | 50cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Earnings and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.