South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Club Necaxa win on 2026-08-02?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd8967db1bef5a1d1b975908dad298a5ccfdf96fac73c094f2bbc49b72570d7ba
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $231,613
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $233,651
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $231,613 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf958…db13backed Yes | 17c | 65,733$10,983 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,982.94 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc41…dd7ebacked Yes | 17c | 30,991$5,167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,167.37 | 491 | 36.3%178 W · 313 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed Yes | 8c | 24,428$2,063 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,063.11 | 237 | 33.8%80 W · 157 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x032e…2a9ebacked Yes | 17c | 19,959$3,334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,334.33 | 87 | 56.3%49 W · 38 L | +7.7wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +21%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x64e9…eb4cbacked Yes | 15c | 7,783$1,167 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,167.45 | 38 | 21.1%8 W · 30 L | -2.0wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xacf8…e791backed Yes | 16c | 5,697$912 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$911.52 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2978…b511backed Yes | 13c | 3,940$506 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$506.19 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 27cpaid | -72.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Yes | 3c | 3,803$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.54 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Yes | 6c | 3,318$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.33 | 2,281 | 34.3%782 W · 1,499 L | -30.5wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed Yes | 17c | 2,135$363 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$362.95 | 382 | 33%126 W · 256 L | -11.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d6a…4adabacked Yes | 9c | 2,091$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.21 | 199 | 63.8%127 W · 72 L | +19.3wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked Yes | 2c | 754$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 127 | 37.8%48 W · 79 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x332e…fd5dbacked Yes | 15c | 700$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f26…c83bbacked Yes | 16c | 585.75$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 21cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dc0…e57dbacked Yes | 5c | 536.72$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 256 | 25%64 W · 192 L | +4.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf77a…d17bbacked Yes | 16c | 486.75$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.88 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 14cpaid | +59.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9028…8608backed Yes | 13c | 256.1$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.84 | 601 | 56.2%338 W · 263 L | +10.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13f7…85d5backed Yes | 16c | 242.93$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.3 | 197 | 11.2%22 W · 175 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe331…0163backed Yes | 6c | 170$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 54 | 64.8%35 W · 19 L | +8.8wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xceb5…f397backed Yes | 17c | 147.06$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5d63…9075backed Yes | 16c | 145.94$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.22 | 951 | 55.8%531 W · 420 L | +31.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d67…3667backed Yes | 16c | 135.66$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.95 | 464 | 49.6%230 W · 234 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe84f…b777backed Yes | 15c | 106.33$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.02 | 694 | 53.5%371 W · 323 L | +8.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd325…8c5fbacked Yes | 17c | 100$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 72 | 41.7%30 W · 42 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4f…32e0backed Yes | 13c | 99.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x39f6…abe1backed Yes | 13c | 82$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.57 | 108 | 75%81 W · 27 L | +16.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x8521…df10backed Yes | 16c | 65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -65.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13ef…0c0abacked Yes | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked Yes | 17c | 60$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 82 | 52.4%43 W · 39 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Club Necaxa win on 2026-08-02?this page
- Will Deportivo Toluca FC vs. Club Necaxa end in a draw?No won
- Will Deportivo Toluca FC win on 2026-08-02?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.