South American Leagues · resolved market
Will Deportivo Toluca FC vs. Club Necaxa end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf23cfda2f58cc2bb45c6b33febbc80476442626de65595a229bd159b2da0a704
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $68,447
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $67,666
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $68,447 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf958…db13backed Yes | 20c | 10,000$2,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,000 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a2f…647abacked Yes | 9c | 7,855$699 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$698.61 | 39 | 20.5%8 W · 31 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -70.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed Yes | 5c | 6,706$331 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$331.46 | 237 | 33.8%80 W · 157 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Yes | 16c | 5,733$945 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$944.66 | 575 | 40.2%231 W · 344 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9703…69c2backed No | 80c | 5,317$4,245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,072.49 | 53 | 58.5%31 W · 22 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99f0…9495backed Yes | 18c | 3,125$563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$562.5 | 310 | 39.7%123 W · 187 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 19c | 2,751$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$529.71 | 1,944 | 51.3%998 W · 946 L | +40.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26d6…caccbacked Yes | 14c | 1,036$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.23 | 375 | 40%150 W · 225 L | -16.6wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5c18…2f76backed Yes | 11c | 927.29$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.58 | 194 | 37.1%72 W · 122 L | -7.1wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7e59…7b8bbacked Yes | 8c | 899.69$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.48 | 127 | 37.8%48 W · 79 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Yes | 9c | 799.58$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.81 | 256 | 35.9%92 W · 164 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 80c | 688.14$551 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.63 | 3,405 | 51.3%1,748 W · 1,657 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31cb…a34bbacked Yes | 11c | 617.78$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.96 | 28 | 42.9%12 W · 16 L | -3.9wins | -0.14per pick | 57cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfcd0…b719backed Yes | 19c | 526.31$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x332e…fd5dbacked Yes | 21c | 500$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6534…7cc7backed No | 79c | 438$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.98 | 74 | 45.9%34 W · 40 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe432…934abacked No | 76c | 411$312 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.64 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x999a…9a25backed Yes | 17c | 376.82$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.65 | 127 | 40.9%52 W · 75 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x664a…fc5fbacked No | 80c | 339$271 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.8 | 308 | 47.7%147 W · 161 L | +13.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x986c…3180backed Yes | 18c | 333.33$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +3.6wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9d94…017dbacked Yes | 8c | 293.76$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.16 | 91 | 22%20 W · 71 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -25%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Yes | 18c | 280.44$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.48 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67af…61eebacked Yes | 11c | 254.53$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.56 | 896 | 45.4%407 W · 489 L | -23.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe8e0…7eecbacked Yes | 25c | 250$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.47 | 350 | 46.3%162 W · 188 L | -6.6wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…01e5backed Yes | 21c | 238.1$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 34 | 38.2%13 W · 21 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 19c | 238$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.8 | 1,537 | 45.2%695 W · 842 L | +21.3wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Yes | 15c | 218.2$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.4 | 898 | 46.1%414 W · 484 L | -11.8wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b8…233abacked Yes | 20c | 214.99$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.43 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -3.9wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf36f…e5b8backed Yes | 22c | 200$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Yes | 19c | 194.34$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.89 | 2,611 | 54.2%1,415 W · 1,196 L | +25.5wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae33…ba39backed Yes | 21c | 165.9$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.25 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Yes | 22c | 163$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.54 | 519 | 45.7%237 W · 282 L | -3.9wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcf73…0215backed No | 80c | 123.43$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.71 | 1,282 | 53.7%689 W · 593 L | +5.3wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99e4…e4c4backed Yes | 20c | 119.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | -3.2wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xecae…c544backed Yes | 21c | 113.55$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.82 | 92 | 44.6%41 W · 51 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3e…f882backed Yes | 21c | 101.4$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.58 | 668 | 37.1%248 W · 420 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc98f…a13fbacked No | 78c | 100$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.28 | 97 | 10.3%10 W · 87 L | -5.5wins | -0.06per pick | 16cpaid | -72.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 485 | 47.6%231 W · 254 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9079…b19bbacked No | 76c | 93.37$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.97 | 199 | 53.3%106 W · 93 L | +11.0wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…6182backed Yes | 22c | 90.91$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fbe…b6e2backed Yes | 23c | 86.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e5…c638backed Yes | 18c | 67.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.4wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd443…5f71backed No | 75c | 66$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.51 | 296 | 53%157 W · 139 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb0c…8c72backed Yes | 20c | 64.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 559 | 46%257 W · 302 L | -19.0wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a69…d2f7backed No | 79c | 64$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.44 | 2,514 | 39%980 W · 1,534 L | -32.2wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -14%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Yes | 22c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 506 | 43.9%222 W · 284 L | -4.5wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fe7…6c1fbacked Yes | 25c | 60$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 82 | 52.4%43 W · 39 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -12%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd770…209dbacked Yes | 19c | 56.15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.84 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf119…a229backed Yes | 28c | 55.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.16 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 37cpaid | +62.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3110…c3f5backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5210…bd53backed No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 424 | 62.3%264 W · 160 L | +24.4wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 274 | 42%115 W · 159 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee3…2e6abacked Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 64 | 26.6%17 W · 47 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x882c…5d07backed Yes | 21c | 48.53$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 352 | 40.3%142 W · 210 L | -28.0wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked No | 78c | 48$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.56 | 1,231 | 53.9%663 W · 568 L | +12.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e50…c665backed Yes | 22c | 45.91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 75 | 42.7%32 W · 43 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4359…c338backed Yes | 28c | 42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 12 | 83.3%10 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.19per pick | 64cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdd5e…9040backed No | 80c | 33$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 382 | 33%126 W · 256 L | -11.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6e…f544backed No | 79c | 31.65$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.65 | 646 | 33.1%214 W · 432 L | -24.8wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc8e…944ebacked No | 80c | 31.01$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 131 | 67.9%89 W · 42 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 70cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0074…0767backed No | 76c | 22$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.2wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +137.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f9f…799cbacked No | 74c | 20.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 64 | 71.9%46 W · 18 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 64cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc8…a0e4backed No | 79c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.18 | 170 | 67.6%115 W · 55 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x147c…2540backed No | 80c | 14$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.8 | 59 | 52.5%31 W · 28 L | -5.2wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Deportivo Toluca FC vs. Club Necaxa end in a draw?this page
- Will Club Necaxa win on 2026-08-02?No won
- Will Deportivo Toluca FC win on 2026-08-02?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.