Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will KKS Lech Poznań vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05 end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd8aec9fbcc54c79464961c346833588d40a2b8ce0aa957047c02382ba976f831
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,676
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,668
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,676 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 32 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed No | 39c | 744.18$289 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288.75 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 48c | 595.74$283 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.4 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 71c | 379.7$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$268.27 | 234 | 61.5%144 W · 90 L | +26.7wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xdd3a…9993backed Yes | 34c | 315.26$107 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.07 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb4f9…5526backed Yes | 31c | 150$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.5 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Yes | 23c | 148$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.96 | 80 | 27.5%22 W · 58 L | -3.5wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4dc…d394backed No | 74c | 139$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.86 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 54cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked No | 39c | 122$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.42 | 702 | 39.3%276 W · 426 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x086f…8bc3backed Yes | 23c | 103.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.07 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d33…e208backed Yes | 27c | 97.26$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +3.6wins | +0.09per pick | 44cpaid | +30.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x50c1…6c6cbacked Yes | 45c | 88.89$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.89 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 66c | 77.59$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.59 | 848 | 50.8%431 W · 417 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d24…a93fbacked No | 66c | 77.13$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.72 | 118 | 69.5%82 W · 36 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28a2…91a4backed No | 74c | 63$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.62 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | -3.8wins | -0.14per pick | 44cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x10f7…26f0backed Yes | 26c | 59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.66 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +65.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d9f…0852backed No | 74c | 42.04$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.16 | 37 | 81.1%30 W · 7 L | +2.5wins | +0.07per pick | 74cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x972b…78babacked Yes | 27c | 41.1$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 318 | 49.4%157 W · 161 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa27…dbdcbacked Yes | 26c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.6 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.6wins | +0.23per pick | 48cpaid | +87.1%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf9f1…23eebacked Yes | 26c | 39.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.59 | 142 | 33.1%47 W · 95 L | -9.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbba…e95bbacked Yes | 26c | 39$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.86 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 52cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6191…e505backed No | 69c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.9wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe8bd…8deabacked No | 69c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 60cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x09db…7384backed No | 69c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 66cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x806c…3381backed No | 69c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -2.4wins | -0.47per pick | 67cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd253…14d9backed No | 69c | 30$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 62cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59f1…6710backed No | 73c | 27.4$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 70cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f57…6d41backed No | 74c | 27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.98 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 70cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Yes | 49c | 26.51$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.52 | 741 | 55.9%414 W · 327 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc5d…be79backed No | 74c | 18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 66cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf21a…0751backed No | 74c | 17$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.58 | 11 | 81.8%9 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.16per pick | 65cpaid | +33%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xce01…5c2abacked No | 74c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8b80…8e56backed No | 74c | 15$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will KKS Lech Poznań vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05 end in a draw?this page
- Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 win on 2025-12-11?No won
- Will KKS Lech Poznań win on 2025-12-11?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.