Europa Conference League · resolved market
Will KKS Lech Poznań win on 2025-12-11?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf46bc8189ac5c6be7578bf29e9a28f799b9762cef51ea7440b10589272f50eab
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Europa Conference Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,409
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,152
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,409 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Europa Conference League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 69c | 1,961$1,349 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$611.79 | 848 | 50.8%431 W · 417 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ba6…0f07backed Yes | 36c | 1,500$537 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$537.4 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed No | 67c | 1,461$971 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$489.22 | 522 | 43.9%229 W · 293 L | -2.7wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50ec…c1f5backed No | 79c | 1,077$851 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$226.22 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 70cpaid | +16.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Yes | 27c | 888.04$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.33 | 3,726 | 47%1,750 W · 1,976 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked No | 66c | 618.26$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.46 | 351 | 58.1%204 W · 147 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0469…2f00backed No | 74c | 539.04$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$139.41 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 62cpaid | -28.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a2b…c3cbbacked Yes | 34c | 536.53$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.02 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50c1…6c6cbacked Yes | 33c | 504.5$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd371…4478backed No | 50c | 500.5$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$250.25 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 43cpaid | +50%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Yes | 34c | 343.24$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.94 | 75 | 50.7%38 W · 37 L | -3.2wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a4e…3309backed Yes | 32c | 312.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.21per pick | 46cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Yes | 22c | 301.08$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.93 | 2,999 | 42.4%1,273 W · 1,726 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf142…57e7backed Yes | 32c | 280.67$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.81 | 204 | 49.5%101 W · 103 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked No | 64c | 248$159 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.28 | 449 | 52.6%236 W · 213 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x040d…3527backed Yes | 33c | 227.27$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +1.3wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2076…bf0dbacked Yes | 24c | 200$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.91 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +2.5wins | +0.36per pick | 35cpaid | +87.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa198…9601backed Yes | 33c | 200$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed No | 76c | 175$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 234 | 61.5%144 W · 90 L | +26.7wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ad…fabcbacked Yes | 50c | 171.22$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.61 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8776…1ca3backed Yes | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc41b…4fdfbacked Yes | 31c | 147.4$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 71c | 139.69$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.06 | 200 | 47%94 W · 106 L | -11.3wins | -0.06per pick | 53cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x32ac…d539backed Yes | 27c | 132.75$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x086f…8bc3backed Yes | 36c | 104$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.44 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe666…14f5backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +4.5wins | +0.45per pick | 45cpaid | +102.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x3d6e…e9e3backed Yes | 33c | 100$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d56…0ba5backed Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x31b9…b28abacked Yes | 32c | 100$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.40per pick | 40cpaid | +100.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x89ad…5e22backed No | 67c | 99$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.13 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74a7…69e4backed Yes | 34c | 97.18$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.04 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x23fe…9788backed Yes | 28c | 95.01$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.44 | 86 | 58.1%50 W · 36 L | +5.6wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xeb29…ea29backed No | 72c | 93.34$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.14 | 51 | 51%26 W · 25 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe7f6…5ac8backed Yes | 32c | 75.97$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.31 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -2.7wins | -0.12per pick | 34cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x216f…9b1ebacked Yes | 31c | 75$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.25 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79df…1661backed Yes | 35c | 71.43$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 81 | 38.3%31 W · 50 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9d11…c34dbacked Yes | 34c | 70$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.8 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -20%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51f7…ae1fbacked No | 64c | 62.5$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.5 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +3.3wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf3d8…c8c0backed Yes | 34c | 62$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.08 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -13%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0501…61ecbacked Yes | 34c | 58.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.14per pick | 40cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xffac…d469backed Yes | 35c | 57.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 46 | 52.2%24 W · 22 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa8ae…7f3ebacked Yes | 29c | 55$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 96 | 44.8%43 W · 53 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked No | 66c | 53.67$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.02 | 706 | 39.5%279 W · 427 L | -16.9wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5351…a045backed Yes | 33c | 51.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -43.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd470…783ebacked Yes | 33c | 50$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 36cpaid | -40.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5422…6c3fbacked Yes | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 64 | 46.9%30 W · 34 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x927b…3735backed Yes | 34c | 47.06$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Yes | 35c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 105 | 44.8%47 W · 58 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e75…e81dbacked Yes | 34c | 39.85$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed No | 64c | 36.5$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.14 | 741 | 55.9%414 W · 327 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84f0…327cbacked No | 66c | 34$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.56 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 53cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42bb…2138backed Yes | 33c | 31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.25per pick | 59cpaid | -55%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa032…9b15backed No | 69c | 26$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.06 | 14 | 85.7%12 W · 2 L | +3.0wins | +0.21per pick | 65cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf86a…9ed1backed No | 69c | 25$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -15%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb7…8745backed No | 69c | 24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.44 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 67cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9942…5b7dbacked No | 66c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.46 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.18per pick | 66cpaid | +22%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fc…c985backed No | 67c | 19$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd699…3f8abacked No | 68c | 15$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +36.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Europa Conference League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will KKS Lech Poznań win on 2025-12-11?this page
- Will 1. FSV Mainz 05 win on 2025-12-11?No won
- Will KKS Lech Poznań vs. 1. FSV Mainz 05 end in a draw?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.