Bundesliga · resolved market
1. FC Kaiserslautern vs. Eintracht Braunschweig: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd8b3ccf47ada01d93c561718bc223f5cf5f9b197aa7cceb0e58409919eaff5bc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,018
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,126
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,018 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 47c | 2,527$1,182 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,345.75 | 640 | 43.9%281 W · 359 L | -9.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8873…09fcbacked Over | 58c | 2,010$1,169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,169.29 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.14per pick | 55cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x055a…12ddbacked Over | 62c | 1,590$985 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$984.58 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +122.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed Under | 49c | 1,291$638 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$652.73 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x780f…5f16backed Over | 55c | 1,154$638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$637.98 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03c0…44febacked Under | 47c | 968.2$455 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$513.15 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +21.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 55c | 908.99$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.95 | 187 | 59.4%111 W · 76 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf02f…1ed8backed Over | 56c | 831.27$466 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$466.35 | 172 | 47.1%81 W · 91 L | +2.9wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed Under | 44c | 787.96$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$438.2 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 44c | 600.13$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$335.09 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 38c | 550.95$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.9 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 43c | 548.52$234 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$314.97 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 46c | 341.83$157 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.19 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Over | 31c | 308.59$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.86 | 126 | 35.7%45 W · 81 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0040…9eb8backed Over | 58c | 292.44$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.62 | 225 | 62.2%140 W · 85 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa5…e01bbacked Over | 40c | 263.53$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.41 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 32cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52d9…fb1abacked Under | 42c | 249.54$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$144.56 | 125 | 60.8%76 W · 49 L | +12.0wins | +0.10per pick | 51cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xba8d…009dbacked Over | 49c | 143$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.07 | 65 | 32.3%21 W · 44 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 38c | 119$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.34 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ba…4028backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 388 | 45.6%177 W · 211 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97b2…1c44backed Over | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa64c…34f2backed Under | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc454…8c31backed Under | 24c | 99.42$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.56 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.16per pick | 25cpaid | -62.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Over | 56c | 94.33$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.24 | 531 | 40.7%216 W · 315 L | -13.3wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e3b…5a53backed Over | 57c | 90.58$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.63 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e95…0fefbacked Over | 61c | 80.05$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.83 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over | 55c | 70$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 346 | 55.5%192 W · 154 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd60c…2b06backed Over | 61c | 63.58$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.9 | 160 | 56.9%91 W · 69 L | +13.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa24f…7c58backed Over | 33c | 54.24$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 29 | 55.2%16 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69a6…7a2cbacked Under | 75c | 51.99$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +57.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2566…03dcbacked Under | 77c | 51.23$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.78 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8514…cbb0backed Over | 40c | 50.61$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 38c | 49.98$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.99 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56ff…81a0backed Over | 62c | 47.27$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.31 | 39 | 66.7%26 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa178…11a2backed Over | 26c | 45.61$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 190 | 55.3%105 W · 85 L | +5.1wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2be0…6deebacked Over | 35c | 42.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.94 | 25 | 28%7 W · 18 L | -2.3wins | -0.09per pick | 37cpaid | -54%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe32a…efabbacked Over | 55c | 41.77$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.17 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.15per pick | 58cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3322…7dc2backed Under | 36c | 40.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.18 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.2wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30a5…ae72backed Over | 43c | 40.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.38 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe697…708fbacked Under | 44c | 39.51$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.13 | 106 | 57.5%61 W · 45 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1a1…ea66backed Under | 40c | 33.74$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.24 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3092…c9a8backed Under | 45c | 33.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.23 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72ee…a848backed Over | 60c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 115 | 56.5%65 W · 50 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bfe…0741backed Under | 41c | 27.06$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.96 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43f5…40d0backed Over | 62c | 25.17$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.61 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c5c…1cf7backed Over | 51c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5913…3bbebacked Over | 62c | 23.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.66 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb4…8285backed Under | 64c | 21.06$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.58 | 550 | 58.7%323 W · 227 L | +23.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2831…e84dbacked Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 31 | 54.8%17 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 59cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8858…ed3ebacked Over | 60c | 19.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb63a…7637backed Over | 62c | 19.54$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.12 | 63 | 69.8%44 W · 19 L | +4.7wins | +0.08per pick | 62cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x033c…b4afbacked Over | 61c | 18.56$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 67cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f28…d173backed Under | 68c | 17.49$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.67 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -5.4wins | -0.25per pick | 65cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xa64f…e598backed Over | 79c | 12.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 13 | 76.9%10 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.09per pick | 68cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs. Eintracht Braunschweig: O/U 2.5this page
- 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs. Eintracht Braunschweig: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs. Eintracht Braunschweig: O/U 1.5Over won
- 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs. Eintracht Braunschweig: O/U 3.5Under won
- 1. FC Kaiserslautern vs. Eintracht Braunschweig: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: 1. FC Kaiserslautern (-1.5)Eintracht Braunschweig won
- Spread: 1. FC Kaiserslautern (-2.5)Eintracht Braunschweig won
- Spread: Eintracht Braunschweig (-1.5)Eintracht Braunschweig won
- Spread: Eintracht Braunschweig (-2.5)1. FC Kaiserslautern won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.