Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 11°C on May 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd8bc4b676067634203687517df3ed30909f57d9979a1494bfa50456a4867c6c7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,286
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,277
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,286 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xae2e…40adbacked Yes | 60c | 406.33$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.43 | 295 | 20.7%61 W · 234 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 24c | 365.9$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.51 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12ce…2b5cbacked No | 50c | 284.55$143 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.06 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 36c | 276.98$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.66 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 52c | 245.97$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.87 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4e5c…d892backed Yes | 33c | 167.16$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.73 | 570 | 44.9%256 W · 314 L | +36.5wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +13%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xadb0…1c8cbacked Yes | 27c | 163.86$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.43 | 541 | 43.1%233 W · 308 L | +9.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +42.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 40c | 150.53$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.66 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf419…5f89backed Yes | 26c | 94.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.52 | 949 | 19.7%187 W · 762 L | +11.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 17c | 84.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbff7…554fbacked No | 36c | 81.2$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.68 | 1,026 | 60.8%624 W · 402 L | +11.0wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 47c | 80$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.19 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6be5…41afbacked Yes | 40c | 74.39$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.51 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -2.6wins | -0.12per pick | 27cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x61f7…f8debacked Yes | 21c | 74.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 287 | 42.5%122 W · 165 L | +24.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 31c | 69.66$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.17 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 58c | 64.79$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.9 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…0759backed Yes | 39c | 62$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.18 | 267 | 38.6%103 W · 164 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 60c | 60.47$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.39 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 63c | 60$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc92…b4d7backed No | 60c | 53.31$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.38 | 103 | 60.2%62 W · 41 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 70c | 52.8$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.62 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bb0…c328backed No | 66c | 51.7$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.74 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x198a…2080backed Yes | 39c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 71 | 21.1%15 W · 56 L | -3.1wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x35c4…d144backed No | 78c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.79 | 1,255 | 62.5%785 W · 470 L | +99.5wins | +0.08per pick | 55cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9acf…0cc2backed Yes | 38c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.94 | 229 | 45.4%104 W · 125 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9df…9571backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13 | 211 | 73.5%155 W · 56 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 46c | 49.79$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.9 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked Yes | 40c | 49.58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…a713backed Yes | 33c | 46.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.73 | 143 | 32.2%46 W · 97 L | +14.7wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +81.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 62c | 46.86$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.91 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 42c | 45.46$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 471 | 36.5%172 W · 299 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8c7b…bd59backed Yes | 29c | 42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.16 | 50 | 60%30 W · 20 L | +3.5wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa34d…b57fbacked Yes | 51c | 30.35$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.54 | 999 | 62.8%627 W · 372 L | +37.5wins | +0.04per pick | 59cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 41c | 30.06$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1eea…00c5backed Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 224 | 50.4%113 W · 111 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f73…a5f2backed Yes | 75c | 30$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.49 | 158 | 43%68 W · 90 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed No | 60c | 26.44$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.44 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 62c | 26.32$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.4 | 350 | 58.3%204 W · 146 L | +4.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 64c | 19.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.3 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 57c | 19.88$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.55 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked Yes | 75c | 13.7$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 1,313 | 76.1%999 W · 314 L | +20.9wins | +0.02per pick | 74cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 11°C on May 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 10°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 12°C on May 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 13°C on May 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.