Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 12°C on May 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe641b96c76a19d231cd7aab6897bfce810de80bee2bb912dc0549a62808054c5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,494
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,216
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,494 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 44 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 58c | 322.95$187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.63 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae2e…40adbacked No | 42c | 250.22$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.79 | 295 | 20.7%61 W · 234 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff9…64ffbacked Yes | 41c | 242.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$143.42 | 2,674 | 30%803 W · 1,871 L | +5.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked No | 25c | 163.9$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 695 | 20%139 W · 556 L | -44.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -53.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa4ba…c5d8backed No | 20c | 151.17$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 251 | 30.7%77 W · 174 L | -9.8wins | -0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f73…a5f2backed Yes | 42c | 132.46$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.27 | 158 | 43%68 W · 90 L | -8.5wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c48…6b72backed Yes | 44c | 111.11$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.91 | 452 | 38.5%174 W · 278 L | -14.1wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 16c | 110.75$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.2 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 26c | 109.21$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.75 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5964…35dfbacked No | 26c | 102.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.82 | 1,279 | 33.6%430 W · 849 L | -6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1add…a268backed Yes | 68c | 73.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.53 | 52 | 48.1%25 W · 27 L | +1.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f7…f8debacked Yes | 26c | 72$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.5 | 287 | 42.5%122 W · 165 L | +24.3wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 56c | 66.65$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.35 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf899…0759backed Yes | 41c | 66.23$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.16 | 267 | 38.6%103 W · 164 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 49c | 60.09$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.74 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 18c | 57.64$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 32c | 52.4$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.77 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 55c | 51.2$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.41 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7740…a03cbacked Yes | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 74 | 25.7%19 W · 55 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb9df…9571backed No | 74c | 50$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 211 | 73.5%155 W · 56 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b78…e589backed Yes | 57c | 47.26$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.39 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 56c | 46.11$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.76 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd9b…492abacked No | 58c | 42.72$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.97 | 173 | 65.3%113 W · 60 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d1d…43f2backed Yes | 48c | 41.41$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.41 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +92.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa708…9321backed No | 37c | 40.5$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 1,299 | 57.5%747 W · 552 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 56c | 39.84$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fc7…147ebacked Yes | 43c | 34.88$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 81 | 55.6%45 W · 36 L | +9.2wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2c66…f4d3backed No | 57c | 33.58$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.14 | 247 | 70%173 W · 74 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf694…24e3backed Yes | 62c | 33.06$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.56 | 111 | 29.7%33 W · 78 L | -3.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9acf…0cc2backed Yes | 43c | 32.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.55 | 229 | 45.4%104 W · 125 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 44c | 30.03$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.67 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2995…8410backed Yes | 42c | 28.73$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.77 | 196 | 32.7%64 W · 132 L | -5.4wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd78c…a66ebacked Yes | 44c | 25.54$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.2 | 728 | 37.8%275 W · 453 L | -12.0wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x989a…b73fbacked Yes | 55c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 181 | 64.1%116 W · 65 L | +29.3wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +37%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 59c | 25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.85 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x353b…e535backed Yes | 68c | 23.45$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.45 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 57c | 22.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5848…1e49backed No | 63c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.65 | 863 | 62.9%543 W · 320 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeee0…f00ebacked Yes | 64c | 18.8$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.77 | 171 | 40.4%69 W · 102 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6a…4614backed Yes | 61c | 18.07$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.96 | 102 | 46.1%47 W · 55 L | -11.5wins | -0.11per pick | 57cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 61c | 17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.35 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 71c | 15.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 1,901 | 55.6%1,057 W · 844 L | +7.7wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 12°C on May 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 10°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 11°C on May 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 13°C on May 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.