Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on August 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd8f06cca140ef9e78506e502d32bcdb4937be1d3d5ed3aff24575f96a629960c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,050
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,605
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,050 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1ba7…3d88backed No | 70c | 280$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.2 | 478 | 66.5%318 W · 160 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06da…af33backed Yes | 31c | 240.16$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.4 | 253 | 32%81 W · 172 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 66c | 235.88$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.53 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…e9f8backed Yes | 35c | 207.95$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.96 | 1,108 | 30%332 W · 776 L | -38.1wins | -0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 25c | 177.36$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 69c | 150$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.99 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked No | 68c | 146$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.72 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b61…bf25backed Yes | 34c | 142.5$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.93 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed Yes | 30c | 136$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.64 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…5296backed Yes | 29c | 108.5$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 203 | 39.9%81 W · 122 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0c6…4d0fbacked Yes | 31c | 100$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.21per pick | 38cpaid | -64.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4de1…18a2backed Yes | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 435 | 15.2%66 W · 369 L | +6.0wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3a…8792backed Yes | 30c | 100$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 180 | 45.6%82 W · 98 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeef1…21b8backed Yes | 21c | 90.14$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.61 | 435 | 40.5%176 W · 259 L | +9.8wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 29c | 89.99$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.41 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 30c | 86.75$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.94 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed Yes | 30c | 84.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.31 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 16c | 80$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.95 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa1cc…6171backed Yes | 17c | 75.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.68 | 379 | 42.5%161 W · 218 L | -8.7wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 67c | 73.19$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.51 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc0b…a782backed Yes | 36c | 69.6$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 515 | 37.5%193 W · 322 L | +9.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 59c | 68.09$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.7 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x518c…d366backed Yes | 39c | 64.68$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.49 | 86 | 37.2%32 W · 54 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8d…3b13backed Yes | 28c | 59.99$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 81 | 46.9%38 W · 43 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8e…735bbacked Yes | 34c | 59.3$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 237 | 31.6%75 W · 162 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 32cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74b7…ce5abacked Yes | 35c | 57.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 42 | 23.8%10 W · 32 L | -2.7wins | -0.06per pick | 30cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed No | 71c | 51.84$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.03 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a83…497dbacked Yes | 29c | 51.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 349 | 35.2%123 W · 226 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked Yes | 31c | 50.1$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.52 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x33e8…dc93backed Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 239 | 41.4%99 W · 140 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b58…d734backed Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 155 | 34.2%53 W · 102 L | -2.7wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe763…649abacked Yes | 34c | 49$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.8wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +54.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb4ce…49e0backed Yes | 26c | 47.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.34 | 455 | 40%182 W · 273 L | +20.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…d361backed Yes | 44c | 47.34$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.94 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -3.4wins | -0.19per pick | 41cpaid | -51.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0a59…8e5cbacked Yes | 22c | 46.79$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 303 | 33%100 W · 203 L | +16.1wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc8f0…835cbacked Yes | 35c | 42.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 109 | 37.6%41 W · 68 L | -9.6wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdadb…1870backed Yes | 33c | 42.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.82 | 589 | 22.8%134 W · 455 L | +13.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8629…ce84backed No | 71c | 41.71$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.04 | 82 | 61%50 W · 32 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38a1…3154backed No | 73c | 41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.02 | 2,067 | 74.6%1,542 W · 525 L | +23.8wins | +0.01per pick | 73cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad7…347abacked Yes | 26c | 39.1$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 729 | 52.4%382 W · 347 L | +34.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 70c | 37.14$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.14 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 69c | 36.79$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.4 | 1,088 | 55.5%604 W · 484 L | -27.6wins | -0.03per pick | 58cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf456…d568backed No | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 213 | 38%81 W · 132 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 71c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.79 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33ab…149bbacked No | 70c | 28.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.58 | 205 | 69.8%143 W · 62 L | +9.0wins | +0.04per pick | 65cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd498…a6c5backed No | 70c | 28.57$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 1,710 | 47.8%818 W · 892 L | -48.2wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6716…6450backed No | 68c | 28.44$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.02 | 25 | 68%17 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadb9…8326backed No | 76c | 26.29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.29 | 146 | 45.9%67 W · 79 L | -3.2wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x441a…e9c7backed No | 70c | 23.31$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.99 | 395 | 43.5%172 W · 223 L | -12.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed No | 69c | 21.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x379a…4b1abacked No | 70c | 21.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.43 | 429 | 48%206 W · 223 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed No | 69c | 20.5$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.41 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.8 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 397 | 68.8%273 W · 124 L | +11.3wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50b0…7dc5backed No | 71c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 93 | 60.2%56 W · 37 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 71c | 19.55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.72 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa1b3…931cbacked No | 74c | 19.38$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.08 | 80 | 67.5%54 W · 26 L | +4.4wins | +0.05per pick | 62cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 78c | 17.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.01 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x772f…b3aebacked No | 67c | 16.13$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.32 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 41cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa9a1…13d6backed No | 78c | 15.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.37 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef61…2ee6backed No | 67c | 14.93$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 335 | 50.4%169 W · 166 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 73c | 13.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.73 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 33°C on August 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on August 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on August 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 34°C on August 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 35°C on August 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 36°C or higher on August 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.