South American Leagues · resolved market
Caracas FC vs. Racing Club: O/U 2.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd8fa2ab9b1a3248cbda46edf39f253e336c0d2ec5a1b899af34268a75d751fbb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- South American Leaguesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,547
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,393
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,547 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in South American Leagues is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 52c | 1,311$685 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$625.61 | 5,757 | 45.4%2,611 W · 3,146 L | +94.0wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 60c | 705.69$421 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.48 | 8,107 | 48.7%3,948 W · 4,159 L | +26.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044e…28d3backed Over | 39c | 569.23$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$222 | 28 | 35.7%10 W · 18 L | -4.7wins | -0.17per pick | 52cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcc11…c87bbacked Under | 59c | 400$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164 | 196 | 59.7%117 W · 79 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad18…0b4fbacked Over | 36c | 358.33$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129 | 143 | 35.7%51 W · 92 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e5a…154cbacked Over | 54c | 277.78$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 218 | 39.4%86 W · 132 L | -9.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7066…50e5backed Over | 73c | 273.97$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 141 | 61%86 W · 55 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf800…bdbabacked Over | 41c | 200$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 218 | 37.6%82 W · 136 L | -12.0wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed Over | 41c | 157$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.37 | 2,335 | 51.5%1,202 W · 1,133 L | +2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56ae…9badbacked Over | 35c | 142.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 48 | 22.9%11 W · 37 L | -4.4wins | -0.09per pick | 32cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked Over | 21c | 142.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 108 | 27.8%30 W · 78 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc92d…9691backed Over | 52c | 96.15$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 69 | 58%40 W · 29 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d05…f729backed Over | 42c | 93$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.63 | 145 | 35.9%52 W · 93 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Under | 58c | 89.86$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.19 | 2,170 | 43.7%948 W · 1,222 L | -53.8wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Over | 43c | 74.81$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.17 | 1,487 | 48.7%724 W · 763 L | -17.4wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -10%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 58c | 66.28$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 787 | 56.4%444 W · 343 L | +23.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8701…2075backed Over | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb9…2772backed Over | 53c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddc…e874backed Over | 41c | 46.56$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 201 | 38.3%77 W · 124 L | -8.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33af…288abacked Over | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 270 | 31.5%85 W · 185 L | -12.2wins | -0.05per pick | 36cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c6a…cbfbbacked Under | 75c | 37.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.63 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0f46…1db8backed Under | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 11 | 72.7%8 W · 3 L | +2.1wins | +0.19per pick | 54cpaid | +38%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Under | 57c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 242 | 53.3%129 W · 113 L | +8.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e35…ee1abacked Under | 74c | 33.87$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.87 | 18 | 83.3%15 W · 3 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 74cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Over | 43c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 700 | 55.7%390 W · 310 L | +13.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7708…42cbbacked Over | 44c | 24.5$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.7 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 31cpaid | -43%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2463…f5b5backed Under | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 108 | 62%67 W · 41 L | +3.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in South American Leagues and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Caracas FC vs. Racing Club: O/U 2.5this page
- Caracas FC vs. Racing Club: O/U 1.5Over won
- Caracas FC vs. Racing Club: O/U 3.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.