La Liga · resolved market
Athletic Club vs. RC Celta de Vigo: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd931f41488d57fc51d57df98f890cc75ab984dba843761bcb013425d8125bb61
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,699
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,838
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,699 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 23 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x38b8…f812backed Over | 19c | 893$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.28 | 55 | 56.4%31 W · 24 L | +7.1wins | +0.13per pick | 44cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 77c | 843.36$647 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.03 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0346…52a5backed Over | 32c | 579.03$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.99 | 571 | 39.2%224 W · 347 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd66…fb6dbacked Over | 21c | 500$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 108 | 20.4%22 W · 86 L | -9.6wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf8d9…d7f5backed Over | 22c | 400$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +29.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e61…0e06backed Over | 17c | 299.99$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 94 | 23.4%22 W · 72 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f1…3a05backed Over | 27c | 299.89$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.97 | 137 | 28.5%39 W · 98 L | -5.5wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x325f…4511backed Under | 68c | 294.06$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$94.1 | 335 | 44.2%148 W · 187 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Over | 23c | 213.97$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.21 | 120 | 42.5%51 W · 69 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 47cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf474…2775backed Under | 77c | 116.42$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.78 | 20 | 85%17 W · 3 L | +3.4wins | +0.17per pick | 68cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x79df…1661backed Over | 24c | 103.25$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.78 | 170 | 36.5%62 W · 108 L | +2.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fad…fdc0backed Over | 27c | 101.27$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.89 | 51 | 19.6%10 W · 41 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -14%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fe2…6829backed Under | 69c | 100$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 29 | 72.4%21 W · 8 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc249…8a61backed Under | 70c | 83.33$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25 | 101 | 68.3%69 W · 32 L | +13.8wins | +0.14per pick | 55cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9637…a576backed Over | 30c | 83.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 492 | 28.9%142 W · 350 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 75c | 71.1$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.59 | 923 | 45.5%420 W · 503 L | -30.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb25…eb12backed Under | 75c | 66.77$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.77 | 133 | 47.4%63 W · 70 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed Over | 22c | 64.05$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.09 | 922 | 54.1%499 W · 423 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff2a…bfefbacked Under | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 38 | 42.1%16 W · 22 L | -4.6wins | -0.12per pick | 54cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc263…1e83backed Under | 76c | 33.38$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.02 | 61 | 63.9%39 W · 22 L | +6.1wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +16%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x623a…5144backed Under | 77c | 25.97$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.97 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.2wins | -0.32per pick | 46cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7f1c…390dbacked Under | 78c | 19.29$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.24 | 33 | 42.4%14 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaedd…ad5bbacked Under | 77c | 14.95$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.44 | 67 | 70.1%47 W · 20 L | +4.9wins | +0.07per pick | 63cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Athletic Club vs. RC Celta de Vigo: O/U 3.5this page
- Athletic Club vs. RC Celta de Vigo: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Athletic Club vs. RC Celta de Vigo: O/U 0.5Over won
- Athletic Club vs. RC Celta de Vigo: O/U 1.5Over won
- Athletic Club vs. RC Celta de Vigo: O/U 2.5Under won
- Athletic Club vs. RC Celta de Vigo: O/U 4.5Under won
- Athletic Club vs. RC Celta de Vigo: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Athletic Club (-1.5)RC Celta de Vigo won
- Spread: RC Celta de Vigo (-1.5)Athletic Club won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.